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6-4 H2H Strategy

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Re: 6-4 H2H Strategy

Postby theonemephisto » Sun Apr 10, 2011 10:33 pm

Week 1 Result: 5-4 win.
..Me: 34 R, 4 HR, 30 RBI, 18 SB, .197 AVG, 8 W, 11 SV, 95 K, 2.82 ERA, 1.01 WHIP
Him: 68 R, 21 HR, 62 RBI, 8 SB, .266 AVG, 5 W, 11 SV, 78 K, 4.39 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

I think I would be incredibly happy with a 4-6 loss if my opponent had that line in any other league. He had an incredible week that would have easily demolished any of my other teams, but I managed to scrape out a win pretty much solely due to this strategy.

Survived bad starts by Lee, Lester, and Jimenez with stellar ones by Lincecum, Kuroda, Cain, Johnson, and Felix. Lincecum especially carried my team this week. He threw out Kershaw and Jackson against me, both of whom absolutely dominated, but bad starts by Billingsley, Westbrook, and Lohse (the latter two of which were streamers) sunk his chances in the ratios pretty early on. Soria provided saves, though his ratios were pretty ugly, while Thornton disappointed. Thornton in particular single-handedly forced me to settle for a tie in saves; but he also had Axford, Perez, and Nathan, all of whom racked up saves. Oh, and steals was over pretty early on. It was only as close as it was because of Tabata stealing 5. Every position player on my teams except Zobrist contributed steals, led by 4 each from Pagan and Pierre.

Overall, this strategy worked exactly as it was supposed to. I only managed to tie him in saves, but 11 would have been enough to win it in almost any other league. I picked up Sale with the roster spot from Jimenez's DL to handcuff Thornton for a bit just in case, which means that I'll have to juggle my relief pitcher slots for a bit as I now have 7 of them. But I should be able to handle that by looking at usage. Good first week facing a hot team.

Next week should be interesting. He has two closers and a bunch of middle relievers, so saves is basically guaranteed to me. His starting pitching is led by Hudson, Myers, Garcia. So I anticipate that he'll only start Hudson, Myers, and Garcia, punting the counting stats while relying on his relievers to try to even out the rates. Last week he posted 12 steals with a 2.66 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, but every single one of his starters was also unsustainably phenomenal (didn't realize how good Garcia was last week), so that should come down. But anyway, it should be a task, probably involving me benching a couple starters with less-than-stellar matchups.

Record: 5-4-1
Week 1: 5-4
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Re: 6-4 H2H Strategy

Postby gravenewworld » Sun Apr 10, 2011 11:12 pm

The one thing that people forget is that YOU DON'T NEED TO WIN ERA AND WHIP often times. I know era and whip are highly volatile stats. So what?


-Most weeks, with an amazing pitching staff you are going to win Ks, Ws, SVs. Even if you blow ERA and WHIP, you still will likely win SBs and vie for Rs and AVG/OBP%. When you blow WHIP and ERA, you still have safety mechanisms in place to cover your ass--the fact that you can vie for AVG and R, in order to get to a 5-5 tie. Even if you lose, at worst you'll probably lose 4-6 or 3-7 at worst.

-The other part people forget is that even if a closer blows up, or you have a starter who has a horrible game, is the fact that you CAN absorb a lot of earned runs with a beastly pitching staff. A good pitching staff is going to eat a LOT of innings and will therefore decrease ERA and WHIP with a lot of innings played. This week I had Axford, Lyon, Lee, and Liriano all blow up on me but still finished with week with a 3.81 ERA and 1.19 WHIP because I had a large quality pitching staff that eats a lot of innings. Very respectable numbers that will likely improve.



Yes, this strategy may not work against streamers, but why would anyone play in a league that doesn't place a cap on # of starts, innings pitched, or moves per week? Steamers take all the fun out of the fantasy baseball. Leagues that allow streaming are a complete waste of time. Also one strategy to employ against a streamer while using this strategy is to simply forget about Ws and Ks and focus solely on ERA/WHIP/Svs for that week by only starting your starters against easy matchups. A streamers is likely at some point to blow their ERA and WHIP. Using this strategy to counter a streamer will get you SB, SV, ERA, WHIP, and a fight over R/AVG. Again, it will likely lead to a 5-5 tie, 4-6 loss, or a 6-4 win. All very acceptable.
Last edited by gravenewworld on Sun Apr 10, 2011 11:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 6-4 H2H Strategy

Postby gravenewworld » Sun Apr 10, 2011 11:27 pm

theonemephisto wrote:Week 1 Result: 5-4 win.
..Me: 34 R, 4 HR, 30 RBI, 18 SB, .197 AVG, 8 W, 11 SV, 95 K, 2.82 ERA, 1.01 WHIP
Him: 68 R, 21 HR, 62 RBI, 8 SB, .266 AVG, 5 W, 11 SV, 78 K, 4.39 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

I think I would be incredibly happy with a 4-6 loss if my opponent had that line in any other league. He had an incredible week that would have easily demolished any of my other teams, but I managed to scrape out a win pretty much solely due to this strategy.

Survived bad starts by Lee, Lester, and Jimenez with stellar ones by Lincecum, Kuroda, Cain, Johnson, and Felix. Lincecum especially carried my team this week. He threw out Kershaw and Jackson against me, both of whom absolutely dominated, but bad starts by Billingsley, Westbrook, and Lohse (the latter two of which were streamers) sunk his chances in the ratios pretty early on. Soria provided saves, though his ratios were pretty ugly, while Thornton disappointed. Thornton in particular single-handedly forced me to settle for a tie in saves; but he also had Axford, Perez, and Nathan, all of whom racked up saves. Oh, and steals was over pretty early on. It was only as close as it was because of Tabata stealing 5. Every position player on my teams except Zobrist contributed steals, led by 4 each from Pagan and Pierre.

Overall, this strategy worked exactly as it was supposed to. I only managed to tie him in saves, but 11 would have been enough to win it in almost any other league. I picked up Sale with the roster spot from Jimenez's DL to handcuff Thornton for a bit just in case, which means that I'll have to juggle my relief pitcher slots for a bit as I now have 7 of them. But I should be able to handle that by looking at usage. Good first week facing a hot team.

Next week should be interesting. He has two closers and a bunch of middle relievers, so saves is basically guaranteed to me. His starting pitching is led by Hudson, Myers, Garcia. So I anticipate that he'll only start Hudson, Myers, and Garcia, punting the counting stats while relying on his relievers to try to even out the rates. Last week he posted 12 steals with a 2.66 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, but every single one of his starters was also unsustainably phenomenal (didn't realize how good Garcia was last week), so that should come down. But anyway, it should be a task, probably involving me benching a couple starters with less-than-stellar matchups.

Record: 5-4-1
Week 1: 5-4




And that's why it can effectively work a lot of times. You aren't "screwed" per se if a starter or two gets blown up, because if you have a quality pitching staff they will eat a ton of innings and you'll be able to absorb a lot of earned runs.
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Re: 6-4 H2H Strategy

Postby kab21 » Sun May 15, 2011 6:06 pm

updates?
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Re: 6-4 H2H Strategy

Postby theonemephisto » Sun May 15, 2011 6:50 pm

kab21 wrote:updates?

Sorry, it's been a busy couple of weeks, I'll do some quick writeups.

Week 2: 5-5 tie
Me: 28 . 1 . 13 . 10 . .232 . 6 . 5 . 69 . 3.58 . 1.31
Op: 40 . 10 . 28 . 6 . .289 . 5 . 2 . 33 . 3.44 . 1.43

Would have been screwed on steals if it weren't for Michael Bourne stealing 5. Good job by him. On the pitching side, I sufferend a bunch of blowups (though every single one of my teams did, I swear this was the week of the terrible start). Lincecum, Felix, and Kuroda all had horrendous starts, so salvaging a 5-5 was pretty good for the week.

Week 3: 6-3 win
Me: 24 . 4 . 18 . 6 . .283 . 6 . 4 . 83 . 2.67 . 1.17
Op: 40 . 10 . 38 . 5 . .281 . 3 . 4 . 55 . 4.55 . 1.23

Pretty textbook win. Survived blowups by Jimenez and Cain (man Jimenez has been terrible huh) with solid-great starts by everyone else. Somewhere around here the injury bug go my hitters, so I had to replace Pagan and Rajai Davis with Bourjos (great pickup for the week) and Jackson. Managed to squeak out the win in average, which was nice.

Week 4: 5-5 Tie
Me: 33 . 4 . 24 . 13 . .292 . 3 . 3 . 87 . 3.47 . 1.24
Op: 32 . 5 . 30 . 4 . .216 . 6 . 4 . 50 . 2.08 . 1.28

Zobrist's crazy week almost had me thinking I could sweep the offensive categories, especially since his was scuffling. Didn't happen though. Started having major trouble with relievers here, with Felix hitting the DL, Thorton failing miserably, and Soria struggling. Somewhere along the line I picked up Madson when he got the job, which was a lifesaver. Opponent got ridiculous starting pitching, 7 starts all had <3 ERA, so I never really had a chance there. It happens, move on.

Week 5: 7-3 Win
Me: 35 . 0 . 7 . 12 . .281 . 4 . 5 . 73 . 3.10 . 1.21
Op: 27 . 4 . 24 . 4 . .207 . 5 . 2 . 71 . 3.80 . 1.29

Lincecum and Lester put up dominating starts, Soria started getting back on track, Lee put up 16 K's while managing to give up like 4 runs (ugghhhh how does he do this). All in all, some bad starts, but enough stellar ones and great relief pitching to put up a solid line. Didn't get wins (btw, I hate wins and saves, never noticed how crazy variable they are, even with 4+ more starts by better pitchers, sometimes you just don't get them), but getting runs and avg was great. Nice win. Also, I think Feliz came back here, which helped my relievers a ton. Also pick up Anibal Sanchez (who I was shocked to see on the waiver wire). Am currently attempting to trade Jimenez for a good reliever, as I don't need his risk and have a wealth of starting pitching, and I've actually decided to sit him at the beginning of weeks or in close races, just so he doesn't hurt me.

Week 6 (current): 4-6 Loss (projected) EDIT: Lost 4-5
Me: 19 . 2 . 15 . 10 . .266 . 4 . 6 . 59 . 2.74 . 1.22
Op: 28 . 12 . 42 . 2 . .328 . 5 . 2 . 58 . 3.74 . 1.17

Not a great week. Lester and Felix both imploded horrendously, which wasn't great. I still have Lincecum @ ChC and Lester @ NYY to start though. I don't think I can possibly lose ERA even with a blowup, so I'm starting both of them even though I'm wary of Lester. But I'm almost guaranteed to win K's, I'm hoping to at least tie wins, and I might have an outside shot at winning WHIP. So this could potentially turn into a 6-4 win, but I'm at least hoping to keep it close.

So there we are. I'm currently in second, 8.5 games out of first. The guy in first doesn't actually have that dominant of a team, he's just gotten lucky with a couple of hot starters and faced a couple of teams that had really down weeks. But sitting at a .580 Win% (probably a bit lower after this week finished).

Definitely a fun strategy to try, I highly recommend it in a casual league. Nothing is more fun than watching an opponent put up some ridiculous hitting line and you still tie or get the win 6-4. And at least during the regular season, no one has really tried to game my team very hard. It just isn't really feasible. You're going to lose a couple of games due to some hot pitchers, but by and large you'll dominate pitching pretty easily. I wish I hadn't picked Jimenez (I had doubts about him coming into the season), and I wish I my relievers hadn't imploded (Feliz injured, Thornton ugh, Soria inconsistent, Putz okay I guess), but I'm in second and squarely in that group clustered around 2-4, so I'm pretty happy.

Overall: 28-20-2 through week 5 (32-26-2 projected) EDIT: 32-25-3 through week 6
Week 1: 5-4 Win
Week 2: 5-5 Tie
Week 3: 6-3 Win
Week 4: 5-5 Tie
Week 5: 7-3 Win
Week 6: 4-6 Loss (Projected) EDIT: Lost 4-5
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