6-4 H2H Strategy - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2015 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

6-4 H2H Strategy

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Re: 6-4 H2H Strategy

Postby kweiss » Tue Mar 08, 2011 3:20 pm

IMO, pitching is too finicky for this to work, and ERA and WHIP is right next to batting average when it comes to H2H randomness.

Say you tried this last year. Your elite pitching staff could have easily ended up looking something like:
Tim Lincecum
Zack Greinke
Johan Santana
Dan Haren
Joe Nathan
Jonathan Broxton

All these guys were can't miss "aces"... and that staff could have easily been outperformed on any given week by a guy who waited and picked up Mat Latos, John Axford, and Daniel Hudson from the WW.
kweiss
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 182
Joined: 30 Mar 2008
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 6-4 H2H Strategy

Postby quiksilver » Wed Mar 09, 2011 3:49 pm

kab21 wrote:so you're counting on inactive managers then? In a H2H league it's not difficult to look at your weekly opponent and see that he has 5 of the top 10 starters and that he'll win steals by a mile. I can start Josh Johnson (or someone at that level) and a bunch of Luke Gregorsons, Mike Adams and Daniel Bards (or whomever the cheap, elite MR options are this year) and have a really good chance at ERA and WHIP. This strategy might get you to the playoffs but it's easily beatable by an active manager that has a good team imo.


Facing an inactive manager helps (no matter what the strategy), but you aren't counting on that. And your assumption is that you have an ace going early, that he puts in a dominant performance, that you're willing to drop 3 rostered players to add free agent middle relievers, that those FA middle relievers are going to come out and perform... even if the stars align it's a gamble for the other manager. Most managers don't want to roll the dice to alter the team and strategy smack in the middle of the regular season... Plus if it doesn't work outright for the other manager, then they've put themself at a disadvantage by basically assuring your strategy has worked by handing you pitching because their one ace blew up. If you make the championship, the other manager may notice and would be more willing to take the gamble, in which case you step your game up as well... The playoffs are mostly luck and timing anyway.
---
Under this strategy you don't see it going 8-2 ever, but that's because it's not really designed to compete that way. It's designed to compete hard in 6, and maybe get lucky in 2 from time to time. It's not about winning big some weeks, it's about winning or finishing with a tie (5-5, with ERA tie break is a win) consistently for as many weeks as possible.

I skipped last season for one reason or another, but last time I did this in 2009 there were 22 fantasy baseball regular season weeks... Of those the team lost only 4 (2-7, 4-6, 4-5, 2-7). The rest of the way was 13 wins and 5 ties... mostly 6-4/6-3 type wins, but the team also won 7-3 or better 7 times (more than half the wins). The regular season win% was .593 (which was close to 60/40, which is close to 6-4 average per week). If you count the playoffs, I had a bye as the 2-seed, then won 7-1, then won 5-3 in the championship... so overall, it can be competitive. You gotta take a step back and look at the bigger picture of long term averages instead of short samples. I probably will lose the first week this season going against Halladay and Lee (each twice) out the gate, but that's one week in a very long season... The playoffs are more of a gamble, because it's a small sample area- but it's always a gamble regardless of how you're managing your team going into them.

And, yes, injuries can be devastating. Worst case scenario you wind up with pitching like kweiss pointed out from last season, and it's hard to find replacements. You do your best to avoid injury prone guys or ones who appear "due", you stock up on depth so a loss or underperformance of 1 or 2 players doesn't blow up your entire season, and you stay as active on the WW as anyone in the league.

I very well may finish below .500 this season. Maybe Lincecum doesn't regain his velocity and form...... Maybe I scrap this idea and go traditional- and maybe Pujols elbow flares up, maybe Tulo gets hurt, maybe Votto regresses, maybe CarGo's free swinging catches up with him... isn't part of fantasy baseball dealing with questions? This is just a different take on things. Sometimes it will work, sometimes it won't. I think if executed correctly and with a little bit of star alignment that always seems necessary with h2h playoffs, you have to be the league favorite even when stacked up against the best traditionally drafted team in your league, 100 times. I think when drafting traditional if the stars align a little at best you're hoping to be marginally better than the rest, and have your team be hot at the right time (ie: have Troy Tulowitzki in September 2010). It doesn't always happen. C'est la vie.
quiksilver
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 128
Joined: 17 Apr 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Chico, CA

Re: 6-4 H2H Strategy

Postby theonemephisto » Sun Mar 20, 2011 3:45 pm

I just tried this in a 10-team H2H auction league. Ended up with this roster.
EDIT: This is also a league with a 27 min IP limit. So this strategy plays up quite well.

C: None
1B: Zobrist
2B: Theriot
3B: Figgins (once he regains eligibility)
SS: Andrus
OF: Bourn
OF: Pierre
OF: Davis
Util: Gardner
Util: Pagan

SP: Lincecum
SP: Hernandez
SP: Lee
SP: Lester
SP: Johnson
SP: Jimenez
SP: Cain
SP: Kuroda
RP: Marmol
RP: Bell
RP: Soria
RP: Putz
RP: Thornton
RP: Chapman

Pretty happy with the roster. 6 of the top 10 starting pitchers, and 2 solid ones in Cain and Kuroda. 5 closers, all pretty good-great, and Chapman to help with ratios (this spot will be rotated for the great-setup-man-of-the-week). And a million steals.

This team will dominate pitching, win steals every week, compete in runs, and hopefully get a couple fluke average wins. Not sure I like Marmol as a closer, wish I had taken Wilson or something. K's are a little unnecessary in this strategy, ratios are much more important. Might try to swing a trade or something.

I'll try to post periodic updates during the season detailing how things worked out. The one thing I've learned so far: this strategy makes people desperate for pitching. I've received multiple trade offers that have seriously pained me to reject, just because they're useless for me but great values in any other league.
Last edited by theonemephisto on Tue Mar 22, 2011 7:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
theonemephisto
Little League Legend
Little League Legend


Posts: 7
Joined: 23 Mar 2010
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 6-4 H2H Strategy

Postby nickh2944 » Tue Mar 22, 2011 3:27 pm

.
Last edited by nickh2944 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 12:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
nickh2944
T-Ball Trainer


Posts: 1
Joined: 22 Mar 2011
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 6-4 H2H Strategy

Postby Poke » Tue Mar 22, 2011 7:05 pm

quiksilver wrote:2011 Draft Round-by-Round:


I assume that this is your real league...not a mock, correct? If so, please keep updating this thread throughout the season. I am interested in seeing how this turns out. Maybe recap each week with your opponent's team, the final stats, and how you fared against them?
Poke
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor


Posts: 72
Joined: 5 Jun 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 6-4 H2H Strategy

Postby quiksilver » Fri Apr 08, 2011 8:50 pm

Good lookin' teams above, would love to hear how things are panning out since then.

Poke wrote:
quiksilver wrote:2011 Draft Round-by-Round:


I assume that this is your real league...not a mock, correct? If so, please keep updating this thread throughout the season. I am interested in seeing how this turns out. Maybe recap each week with your opponent's team, the final stats, and how you fared against them?


Those results were indeed for my actual draft, and I was planning on popping in for weekly or bi-weekly updates.

Since my last post...

Transactions: I DL'd Johan Santana to free up a roster spot, and used the opening to add Sergio Romo to handcuff with Wilson while he was on the DL. With Wilson's return, Romo became expendable. I dropped Romo and added Jordan Walden, who was recently promoted to closer in Anaheim.

Crawford got off to an awful start to the season, and it appeared the wheels would not be turning on the basepaths for me week one as a unit. As the matchup has moved forward, the steals have come a little easier- with 3 from Coco leading the way. I currently hold a 12-6 lead in the category, but my overall offense anemia has put me completely out of contention for a lucky win in Runs or Batting Average. The gaps appear too big to overcome either way, and I'll go 1-4 on offense, as I would hope.

Pitching was a bit of a concern since my opponent was throwing out Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, twice each, plus a solid group of middle end starters. Halladay and Lowe have been dominant for him, while Lee has been solid, but is unraveling a bit tonight. His lack of a closer hurts, and his relief pitchers have sported a 7.00+ ERA collectively; mine, on the other hand, have been mostly a bright spot, grabbing 8 saves with solid peripherals. Weaver and Lincecum have put up dominant numbers early, and have accounted for half my wins in this first matchup. Currently I lead all five pitching categories (Wins: 6 to 4, Saves: 8 to 0, K: 79 to 60, ERA: 2.89 to 3.14, WHIP: 1.03 to 1.15), however Wins, ERA, and WHIP are still up for grabs. He has Lee, Hudson, and Zambrano today, and Lowe and Floyd over the weekend. The pitching duel between Anderson and Pavano in Minnesota propelled me today, and I still have Gio, Kuroda, and Weaver again over the weekend. Assuming a few more relief outings over the weekend, my closers should be the difference in a fairly close matchup, and I expect to go 5-0 or 4-1 at worst with my pitching.

Expected Week One Record: 6-4
quiksilver
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 128
Joined: 17 Apr 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Chico, CA

Re: 6-4 H2H Strategy

Postby Ender » Fri Apr 08, 2011 11:24 pm

I can't say I think this strategy is worth anything, just draft like normal and make good picks and you should expect to win 6-4 most weeks with a chance to win more. Gimmick strategies only work in bad leagues, they just aren't reliable enough in serious leagues.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 6-4 H2H Strategy

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Sat Apr 09, 2011 12:18 am

You were able to add Walden after he was appointed closer? Wow.
And do you really want to give updates about your Mickey Mouse league success?
Cause this is obviously not a competetive league, and your opponenent is not playing smart.
quiksilver wrote:Pitching was a bit of a concern since my opponent was throwing out Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, twice each, plus a solid group of middle end starters. Halladay and Lowe have been dominant for him, while Lee has been solid, but is unraveling a bit tonight.
Currently I lead all five pitching categories (Wins: 6 to 4, Saves: 8 to 0, K: 79 to 60, ERA: 2.89 to 3.14, WHIP: 1.03 to 1.15), however Wins, ERA, and WHIP are still up for grabs. He has Lee, Hudson, and Zambrano today, and Lowe and Floyd over the weekend. The pitching duel between Anderson and Pavano in Minnesota propelled me today, and I still have Gio, Kuroda, and Weaver again over the weekend. Assuming a few more relief outings over the weekend, my closers should be the difference in a fairly close matchup, and I expect to go 5-0 or 4-1 at worst with my pitching.
Expected Week One Record: 6-4


If I got Halladay and Cliff Lee I woundnt used anybody else, not even releivers, and theres no way that you take 5 pitching cats.
20 IP 1.35 ERA 0.80 WHIP
A knowledgable owner takes ERA and WHIP, plus 4 of the hitting.
You lose 4-6.
Thats your update.
Image
the awesome sig by soty


"You should be mindful of the future, but not at the expense of the
moment." - Qui-Gon Jinn (keeper league expert?)
Syfo-Dyas
Major League Manager
Major League Manager


Posts: 1849
Joined: 23 Jul 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 6-4 H2H Strategy

Postby quiksilver » Sat Apr 09, 2011 1:57 am

Syfo-Dyas wrote:You were able to add Walden after he was appointed closer? Wow.
And do you really want to give updates about your Mickey Mouse league success?
Cause this is obviously not a competetive league, and your opponenent is not playing smart.
quiksilver wrote:Pitching was a bit of a concern since my opponent was throwing out Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, twice each, plus a solid group of middle end starters. Halladay and Lowe have been dominant for him, while Lee has been solid, but is unraveling a bit tonight.
Currently I lead all five pitching categories (Wins: 6 to 4, Saves: 8 to 0, K: 79 to 60, ERA: 2.89 to 3.14, WHIP: 1.03 to 1.15), however Wins, ERA, and WHIP are still up for grabs. He has Lee, Hudson, and Zambrano today, and Lowe and Floyd over the weekend. The pitching duel between Anderson and Pavano in Minnesota propelled me today, and I still have Gio, Kuroda, and Weaver again over the weekend. Assuming a few more relief outings over the weekend, my closers should be the difference in a fairly close matchup, and I expect to go 5-0 or 4-1 at worst with my pitching.
Expected Week One Record: 6-4


If I got Halladay and Cliff Lee I woundnt used anybody else, not even releivers, and theres no way that you take 5 pitching cats.
20 IP 1.35 ERA 0.80 WHIP
A knowledgable owner takes ERA and WHIP, plus 4 of the hitting.
You lose 4-6.
Thats your update.


-Where did I say I added Walden after he was named closer?
-Yes, I'll give updates about my normal league for fun, and because some people have expressed interest in reading more.
-Your idea would have worked week one - in this scenario - but it rarely works like that long-term. Aces don't always go day one in a matchup, but always do opening week. Just as often a manager starts with a bad outing and has to play catchup. If I faced Lester, Ubaldo, Hamels, Verlander, Gallardo, Price, Hanson, Liriano, Oswalt, Sherzer, and more, they would not have won. Going all in on one or two starters is a gamble that leaves you susceptible to poor outlying starts.
-Lastly, I don't care about dissenting opinions, but there's no reason to be rude about it. If this idea sucks so much ass, don't read about it.
quiksilver
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 128
Joined: 17 Apr 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Chico, CA

Re: 6-4 H2H Strategy

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Sat Apr 09, 2011 1:54 pm

quiksilver wrote:-Where did I say I added Walden after he was named closer?


Right here:
quiksilver wrote:With Wilson's return, Romo became expendable. I dropped Romo and added Jordan Walden, who was recently promoted to closer in Anaheim.


To see things in context:
Giants activated RHP Brian Wilson from the 15-day disabled list.
As expected. Wilson began the season on the disabled list with a left oblique strain, but he's back on the first day he's eligible. Be sure to get him back in your lineup for Wednesday's game against the Padres.
Apr 6, 1:44 PM

With Fernando Rodney demoted, Jordan Walden will move into the closer's role for the Angels.
The Angels are saying the move is just temporary, but Walden certainly has the ability to run away with the job. The big right-hander's fastball hums in the upper-90s, and he boasts a 14.3 K/9 rate in his 17 2/3 career major league innings. He's a must-have in all mixed leagues.
Apr 5, 7:23 PM


In every leagues I play Walden was either drafted, or gone days before April 5.
Image
the awesome sig by soty


"You should be mindful of the future, but not at the expense of the
moment." - Qui-Gon Jinn (keeper league expert?)
Syfo-Dyas
Major League Manager
Major League Manager


Posts: 1849
Joined: 23 Jul 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests

cron
Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2015 MLB season starts in 21:13 hours
(and 89 days)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact