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6-4 H2H Strategy

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Re: 6-4 H2H Strategy

Postby bronx bombers 06 » Mon Mar 07, 2011 12:22 am

hey, so i think this could be a really good strategy, so i tried it out in a mock draft earlier today. heres the team i ended up with.

1. Félix Hernández (Sea - SP)
2. José Reyes (NYM - SS)
3. Cliff Lee (Phi - SP)
4. Clayton Kershaw (LAD - SP)
5. Ichiro Suzuki (Sea - OF)
6. Brian Wilson (SF - RP)
7. Jonathan Broxton (LAD - RP)
8. Joe Nathan (Min - RP)
9. Andrew Bailey (Oak - RP)
10. Shaun Marcum (Mil - SP)
11. Brett Anderson (Oak - SP)
12. Matt Thornton (CWS - RP)
13. Scott Podsednik (Tor - OF)
14. Rajai Davis (Tor - OF)
15. Ryan Theriot (StL - 2B,SS)
16. Nyjer Morgan (Was - OF)
17. Jake Peavy (CWS - SP)
18. Jose Tabata (Pit - OF)
19. Chase Headley (SD - 3B)
20. James Loney (LAD - 1B)
21. A.J. Burnett (NYY - SP)
22. Erik Bedard (Sea - SP)
23. John Buck (Fla - C)

so i dont think this is the best possible team for this strategy, but it would work well. i wanted halladay in the first, but someone took him 5th overall. but what id have to add is, i think realistically, if you try to implement this strategy and do it effectively, you could also win avg and runs a lot of weeks. in this example from the mock, the team could potentially hit around .280 per week and provide a lot of runs each week, so thats an extra couple of categories you could win. obviously that wouldnt happen every week, but on occasion it can. and the downside is obviously that if a pitcher or two blows up in a given week, you'd be screwed. thanks for the heads up on the strategy, im gonna try it in a real draft and see how it does this season as well.
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Re: 6-4 H2H Strategy

Postby theonemephisto » Mon Mar 07, 2011 12:53 am

What I learned from a couple mocks:

You can get speed very late, so don't even try to get a Crawford or such. For instance, a team of
C: none
1B: none
2B: Figgins
3B: none
SS: Pennington
OF: Bourne
OF: Ellsbury
OF: Pierre
Util: Gardner
Util: Davis
easily gives you 250+ steals, only takes up 7 roster spots, and is incredibly cheap. Ellsbury is the highest pick here, and you can probably get him in the 8th-9th round. Or if you want to go even cheaper, drop Ellsbury for Crisp/Jackson/Bourjos and Theriot (moving Figgins to 3B) for the same steals at the cost of a roster spot. So pick up a lot of elite pitching as early as you can, and don't be afraid to reach for your guys. In a 10-team league, I'd probably want to go 6 starting pitchers with my first 6 picks, and then trying for at least 2 elite closers. Assuming of course that no one is following your strategy (a fair assumption in free leagues I think).
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Re: 6-4 H2H Strategy

Postby kab21 » Mon Mar 07, 2011 1:04 am

I think the previous post shows why I didn't like the team earlier. I know that you're trying to win steals but every week you're going to win by a 20-1 margin. So there really isn't any reason to invest high pick for elite SB guys. The first ten rds should be best pitcher available imo. If you end up with 7 starters and 3 closers then you are going to have an unstoppable pitching staff. And then you can start drafting SB's and still win that category.

What happens in this strategy if your opponent punts W's, K's and SV's and only starts his best starter and some cheap elite MR options (assuming the min IP is 10-20)?
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Re: 6-4 H2H Strategy

Postby theonemephisto » Mon Mar 07, 2011 1:56 am

kab21 wrote:What happens in this strategy if your opponent punts W's, K's and SV's and only starts his best starter and some cheap elite MR options (assuming the min IP is 10-20)?

I'm guessing that you can do the same thing back to him. You probably have as good or better relief options, and better top starters. So only start your top 2-3 pitchers or guys with good matchups and possibly even take out a few of you less elite relief pitchers.

Also keep in mind that you're going to have so much of the top-tier pitching talent that others will have less to choose from. If you have half of the top 10 pitchers, this situation will come up less and will be easier to deal with when it does.
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Re: 6-4 H2H Strategy

Postby jfg » Mon Mar 07, 2011 2:37 am

I like the strategy a lot. Only problem I see is that injuries hits pitching and speedsters the hardest. It's highly likely that you're going to battle injuries so you just cross your fingers that they come at staggered times and not in the playoffs.
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Re: 6-4 H2H Strategy

Postby quiksilver » Mon Mar 07, 2011 3:11 am

20-1 is a bit of an exaggeration, but your point is noted. Keep in mind that you have to be a bit overkill with it in order to account for fluctuations on a week-to-week basis. There are a few advantages to taking a guy like Crawford, or not totally putting it off at least:

1) Stability: you get every day starters as opposed to 4th outfielders, 9-hole hitters, and .200 guys who steal in bunches whenever they actually get on.
2) More production: they put you in the race for runs and AVG on random weeks, which can be important since you occasionally do lose ERA and/or WHIP.
3) Block opponents: This is a bit of a reach, and not a huge factor, but still. Nyjer Morgan is 30% owned, so if you don't draft him he's an anonymous waiver wire-er for the most part. If you don't draft Crawford then an opponent has him, which will make them more competitive when facing you. This one is a bit of a reach, but something to take into account.

As for the opponent catching on... albeit rare, it happens. Overall they need a lot of factors to work in their favor for it to work out, and even if it does they then have to hope that you counteracting it with the same tactic doesn't work. So, they would need a dominant start first thing in the week, then relief innings from lesser closers that stack up better, and they would need it to not work out for you. Given your better pitching and the chance that you could randomly win some offensive categories, if all of your opponents tried this every week it would work maybe 3/10. Usually by the time managers think of doing this, it's too late and they've made a bad start they can't rebound from. Certainly it is a vulnerability, and something you have to look out for.

Injuries can be a huge buzzkill. One season I did it, drafted Carp, and lost him to TJ for the year. Can't find a replacement for an ace like that in the end. Imagine if you drafted early and lost Wainwright this season- you put yourself in a position to fight an uphill batter. That's why you have to avoid injury-prone guys like the plague. Baseball Prospectus pitcher abuse stats from previous years, combined with innings pitched, long postseasons, injury histories... Not a perfect science, but you can usually pick out who is riskier than others.
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Re: 6-4 H2H Strategy

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Mon Mar 07, 2011 1:46 pm

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"You should be mindful of the future, but not at the expense of the
moment." - Qui-Gon Jinn (keeper league expert?)
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Re: 6-4 H2H Strategy

Postby quiksilver » Mon Mar 07, 2011 6:56 pm

Syfo-Dyas wrote:http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=422368


Nice, I'll check things out and see how "gravenewworld" does (nice name). Last time I was around the cafe actually I talked about this as well in "shmolex's" thread... it's for sure nothing new.

viewtopic.php?t=368125
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Re: 6-4 H2H Strategy

Postby kab21 » Mon Mar 07, 2011 10:32 pm

quiksilver wrote:20-1 is a bit of an exaggeration, but your point is noted. Keep in mind that you have to be a bit overkill with it in order to account for fluctuations on a week-to-week basis. There are a few advantages to taking a guy like Crawford, or not totally putting it off at least:

1) Stability: you get every day starters as opposed to 4th outfielders, 9-hole hitters, and .200 guys who steal in bunches whenever they actually get on.
2) More production: they put you in the race for runs and AVG on random weeks, which can be important since you occasionally do lose ERA and/or WHIP.
3) Block opponents: This is a bit of a reach, and not a huge factor, but still. Nyjer Morgan is 30% owned, so if you don't draft him he's an anonymous waiver wire-er for the most part. If you don't draft Crawford then an opponent has him, which will make them more competitive when facing you. This one is a bit of a reach, but something to take into account.

As for the opponent catching on... albeit rare, it happens. Overall they need a lot of factors to work in their favor for it to work out, and even if it does they then have to hope that you counteracting it with the same tactic doesn't work. So, they would need a dominant start first thing in the week, then relief innings from lesser closers that stack up better, and they would need it to not work out for you. Given your better pitching and the chance that you could randomly win some offensive categories, if all of your opponents tried this every week it would work maybe 3/10. Usually by the time managers think of doing this, it's too late and they've made a bad start they can't rebound from. Certainly it is a vulnerability, and something you have to look out for.


so you're counting on inactive managers then? In a H2H league it's not difficult to look at your weekly opponent and see that he has 5 of the top 10 starters and that he'll win steals by a mile. I can start Josh Johnson (or someone at that level) and a bunch of Luke Gregorsons, Mike Adams and Daniel Bards (or whomever the cheap, elite MR options are this year) and have a really good chance at ERA and WHIP. This strategy might get you to the playoffs but it's easily beatable by an active manager that has a good team imo.
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Re: 6-4 H2H Strategy

Postby jcook3127 » Mon Mar 07, 2011 11:50 pm

I don't like this at all...not the theory of it...in theory it's great...but the reason hitting is so costly in drafts is because its much more predictable..and not just in general, but even on a week to week basis..

6-4 draft strat would be fine..but not utilizing all of the pitching categories...that's absurd. Like you said, he's got Halladay/Lee potentially both going twice...your guys are going to blow up some weeks...I'm honestly not sold on you being above .500 this season...


The best punting strat in 5x5 would just be to punt steals and saves while not drafting anyone projected to hit under .265. So it's like a 7.5-2.5 strat...you're able to be stronger in a majority of the categories and on a good pitching week you can definitely pick up the 8-2 victory.

With this...I don't see you winning 8-2 ever (I know that's fine with you)...but even when it comes to simply winning 6-4...I don't see it more often than not...pitching is not something that is swept with much consistency week to week. Just my thoughts on it..
Why don't they just get a house that's already painted?
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