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Neftali Feliz - SP?

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Neftali Feliz - SP?

Postby boredguy » Fri Mar 04, 2011 2:57 am

So looks like the Rangers are gonna give Feliz a chance to become a starter. They're gonna stretch out his arm and he's working on his slider and changeup. Started the game yesterday and pitched 2 scoreless innings but wasn't dominant doing it, giving up 2 hits, a walk, a hbp and striking out none.

If they do go with him as a starter what happens to his value? We know he'd be an elite closer this year but can he transition to a top SP? He's definitely got the talent to succeed though it's been about a season and half since his last start in the minors.
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Re: Neftali Feliz - SP?

Postby J35J » Fri Mar 04, 2011 8:55 am

If he does start the whole year, it'll take some time. He'll throw his good games but he'll have bad ones as well....in the end he'll probably be mediocore or slightly above in terms of fantasy. IMHO, his value drops just a little "for this year". 127IP in '08, 108IP in '09, 69IP in '10....even if he does do well in the rotation he'll likely be limited on how many innings he throws this year anyway.
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Re: Neftali Feliz - SP?

Postby jsphlly » Fri Mar 04, 2011 9:12 am

J35J wrote:If he does start the whole year, it'll take some time. He'll throw his good games but he'll have bad ones as well....in the end he'll probably be mediocore or slightly above in terms of fantasy. IMHO, his value drops just a little "for this year". 127IP in '08, 108IP in '09, 69IP in '10....even if he does do well in the rotation he'll likely be limited on how many innings he throws this year anyway.


Agree somewhat. I wouldn't go ahead and project his ratios out over 200 IP but he does have 2 things working for him...

1) Nolan Ryan (Not a fan of pitch counts and inning limits)
2) CJ Wilson made a pretty seamless transition from the backend of the bullpen to a frontline starter. From what I understand CJ is a pretty hard worker and really takes care of himself, but also shows the organization knows how to handle it's staff in my opinion.
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Re: Neftali Feliz - SP?

Postby J35J » Fri Mar 04, 2011 9:43 am

jsphlly wrote:Agree somewhat. I wouldn't go ahead and project his ratios out over 200 IP but he does have 2 things working for him...

1) Nolan Ryan (Not a fan of pitch counts and inning limits)
As far as I recall, there was actually no proof, in the numbers, that they actually handled their pitchers any different in terms of pitch counts and/or innings pitched last year.
2) CJ Wilson made a pretty seamless transition from the backend of the bullpen to a frontline starter. From what I understand CJ is a pretty hard worker and really takes care of himself, but also shows the organization knows how to handle it's staff in my opinion.
There will always be exceptions to every rule. To "expect" that Feliz will jump right in and be one of these exceptions isn't something I'll do...can he do it and do it well...sure...but to expect it to happen this year is another thing entirely.


Also, I never said he'd be horrible...just that he would go from a top 5 closer to a 3rd or 4th pitcher in a fantasy rotation "this year". Thats a little bit of a drop off in terms of value for this year. That's my expectations anyway, he could certainly exceed my expectations.
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Re: Neftali Feliz - SP?

Postby Pogotheostrich » Fri Mar 04, 2011 9:47 am

I tend to agree. I think it hurts his value for this year but in a keeper I would be very happy about this.
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Re: Neftali Feliz - SP?

Postby MTUCache » Fri Mar 04, 2011 11:44 am

Pogotheostrich wrote:I tend to agree. I think it hurts his value for this year but in a keeper I would be very happy about this.

Agreed, as long as you're not committing anything of value to keeping him (i.e. a 10th round pick or something).

This would crush his value for this year, at least at the ADP he's being drafted at. Feliz is currently ranked at #69/$15 on Yahoo (crazy high already), ahead of starters like Weaver/Gallardo/Liriano. If he's going to get ranked as a SP, he's going to be at least four rounds later, at which point someone will certainly have drafted him.

Not that I was interested in drafting a closer in the sixth (or 10th) round anyway, but I think there's about a 0.0% chance I own Feliz in any league this year (or Wilson, or Marmol, or Rivera, etc, etc).
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Re: Neftali Feliz - SP?

Postby MasterX1918 » Fri Mar 04, 2011 1:16 pm

I personally think it's a bad idea, i'd rather have a lights out closer than an ok starter. I really don't think Feliz is an Ace nor distended to be one, but then again who knows. Ogando/O'Day look like they could fill the role so maybe its worth a shot, but it really is a gamble.
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Re: Neftali Feliz - SP?

Postby TheNatinals » Fri Mar 04, 2011 3:08 pm

MasterX1918 wrote:I personally think it's a bad idea, i'd rather have a lights out closer than an ok starter. I really don't think Feliz is an Ace nor distended to be one, but then again who knows. Ogando/O'Day look like they could fill the role so maybe its worth a shot, but it really is a gamble.


Feliz was projected to be a future ace while he was a prospect. Why would one year as one of the best closers in baseball (and the AL ROY) change that? He definitely has #1 starter upside and that's not something organizations can ignore.

Look at the contract dollars the top SPs get vs the top closers and you'll see how differently they are valued by MLB teams (hint: the greatest closer of all time currently makes $8mm less per season than CC Sabathia and $1.5mm less than AJ Burnett, playing for the same team).
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Re: Neftali Feliz - SP?

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Mar 04, 2011 3:16 pm

Good Starter >> Great Closer. They should have used him as a starter from the beginning, IMO. Hurts his fantasy value for this year though, as there will be a learning curve.
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Re: Neftali Feliz - SP?

Postby MasterX1918 » Fri Mar 04, 2011 3:58 pm

TheNatinals wrote:
MasterX1918 wrote:I personally think it's a bad idea, i'd rather have a lights out closer than an ok starter. I really don't think Feliz is an Ace nor distended to be one, but then again who knows. Ogando/O'Day look like they could fill the role so maybe its worth a shot, but it really is a gamble.


Feliz was projected to be a future ace while he was a prospect. Why would one year as one of the best closers in baseball (and the AL ROY) change that? He definitely has #1 starter upside and that's not something organizations can ignore.

Look at the contract dollars the top SPs get vs the top closers and you'll see how differently they are valued by MLB teams (hint: the greatest closer of all time currently makes $8mm less per season than CC Sabathia and $1.5mm less than AJ Burnett, playing for the same team).

like I said it's hard to predict how good of a starter he could be, but the Rangers already know that he's a great closer so why would they mess with that? It's a really volatile scenario and seems like a risk they don't need to take.
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