I don't trust him, yet. Before last year, it wasn't just a playing time thing, it was also an injury thing. 228 DL days in the past three seasons including last year when he had zero. 363 DL days in the past five years... I don't see him being healthy all year, which will hurt his value. Think 500 plate appearances versus 633 last year.
garf112 wrote:I don't trust him, yet. Before last year, it wasn't just a playing time thing, it was also an injury thing. 228 DL days in the past three seasons including last year when he had zero. 363 DL days in the past five years... I don't see him being healthy all year, which will hurt his value. Think 500 plate appearances versus 633 last year.
Eh. I'm not too worried about his injury hx. Colitis (2007), injured shoulder diving into stands (2008), and groin strain (2009). 2 of the 3 are fluky, and it's not like he's had recurring leg/groin/hamstring problems like Reyes.
But he has had groin and hamstring issues... The hamstring was so bad that he was put on the 60 DL and missed 75 days. I wouldn't say that an injury jumping into the stands to catch a fly ball is a "fluke." Guys that go all out tend to get injured a lot... Especially center fielders. He also had surgery to remove a bone spur in his elbow and missed 50 days. Colitis can be a chronic condition... Here's where I got all of the injury history from: http://www.baseballinjurytool.com/playerresult.php.
He was my fantasy savior last year in many ways, but I think he comes into this season overvalued.
garf112 wrote:But he has had groin and hamstring issues... The hamstring was so bad that he was put on the 60 DL and missed 75 days. I wouldn't say that an injury jumping into the stands to catch a fly ball is a "fluke." Guys that go all out tend to get injured a lot... Especially center fielders. He also had surgery to remove a bone spur in his elbow and missed 50 days. Colitis can be a chronic condition... Here's where I got all of the injury history from: http://www.baseballinjurytool.com/playerresult.php.
He was my fantasy savior last year in many ways, but I think he comes into this season overvalued.
Yeah, I missed a lot of that. Still, I'm not too worried about an injury with him. And I actually think his ADP/MDP is right where it should be. Again, I see him as similar to Victorino, who is going about 100 picks earlier.
I like Pagan, but that is based on the fact that he seems to be going very cheaply in drafts. I would not pay for last season's numbers by any means. He was a good story and a very productive FA OF for a lot of fantasy teams last year, but if people are especially eager to buy, the price might get too high for my taste.
The difference between Pagan and Victorino is upside. I think Victorino is capable of hitting 20 HRs, whereas Pagan is more likely to top out at 10-12. The speed is comparable, but I'd give the slight edge to Shane. If I knew Pagan would stay healthy and at the top of the lineup, I'd project him at around 90 Rs. Victorino in 650 ABs has a much more realistic chance to be in the 110 range. Vic also should have a slight edge in RBIs although neither will be very valuable in that category. Pagan hit for higher average than Victorino last year, but I'd call batting average a wash between the two.
All that said, I expect Victorino almost certainly to be too expensive, whereas Pagan has a realistic shot of slipping to my price range.
CBMGreatOne wrote:I like Pagan, but that is based on the fact that he seems to be going very cheaply in drafts. I would not pay for last season's numbers by any means. He was a good story and a very productive FA OF for a lot of fantasy teams last year, but if people are especially eager to buy, the price might get too high for my taste.
The difference between Pagan and Victorino is upside. I think Victorino is capable of hitting 20 HRs, whereas Pagan is more likely to top out at 10-12. The speed is comparable, but I'd give the slight edge to Shane. If I knew Pagan would stay healthy and at the top of the lineup, I'd project him at around 90 Rs. Victorino in 650 ABs has a much more realistic chance to be in the 110 range. Vic also should have a slight edge in RBIs although neither will be very valuable in that category. Pagan hit for higher average than Victorino last year, but I'd call batting average a wash between the two.
All that said, I expect Victorino almost certainly to be too expensive, whereas Pagan has a realistic shot of slipping to my price range.
I wouldn't expect Victorino to hit 20 homers. Last year was a career high with 18 homers. Is it possible, yes. Probable, no.
Victorino 162 game average 561AB, 92R, 13HR, 60RBI, 29SB, .282AVG Pagan 162 game average 516AB, 76R, 10HR, 59RBI, 24SB, .285AVG
Victorino's advantage lies in being at the top of the order, and his more consistent playing time. I think it's a wash other than Runs, even if Pagan gets 560ish ABs. But Victorino has a little more pop, so that wouldn't surprise me for him to end up with a few more homers.
victorino's advantage is a longer track record but Pagan is a great value to target.
I'm hoping that I have (or need to make) some time to do my draft prep soon. I think Victorino is a solid pick where he's being taken if you haven't taken any SB's or OF'ers at that point. But I still have a lot of draft prep to do so my opinion might change. His #19 OF cafe ranking seems about right considering what I expect out of the players ranked near him.
I like Pagan a lot this season. He is very, very fast and should steal 40 bases, possibly more. He has pop in his bat and if not for the vile dimensions of Shiti Field he could be a 20 HR threat. He should score some runs hitting 2nd for a decent NL lineup.
My fearless projection, assuming he stays healthy and gets 600 ABs: .290, 15 HR, 90 R, 75 RBI, 40 SB
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by Dan Lambskin » Thu Mar 03, 2011 11:43 am 
