Very close. In a keeper, I'd give the slight edge to Ubaldo. He surely won't be as lights-out in the first half, but I'd say he's a good bet for 15 wins, 200 K, 3.50-3.60 ERA, 1.20-1.25 WHIP. Hamels is more of a sure thing in terms of turning in a lower walk rate, however. The room for improvement for Ubaldo now and beyond this year gives him a bit of an edge.