Pecota reality check

[J35J]

Here's a crazy one, Jay Bruce is projected for a higher WAR than Carlos Gonzalez this year...

I wouldn't really call that crazy. I wouldn't expect it but it wouldn't shock me either if Bruce outperformed Carlos this year.

Crazy to me is saying something like the Royals will win 100 games this year....

[Skin Blues]

Not crazy at all. CarGo had a .384 BABIP and still only had 0.7 WAR higher than Bruce (6.0 to 5.3), who clearly has a lot more potential for growth in 2011 than CarGo does. Fantasy-wise obviously CarGo is worth a lot more because SBs are rated unrealistically high while walks aren't credited at all.

[Ender]

I think a lot of people are going to be disappointed with Cargo this year myself. PECOTA is fine, they aren't really fantasy oriented so I wouldn't use them for anything but rate stats and you can get similar results from free projections so unless you want baseballprospectus for the articles I wouldn't bother with it.

If you go to that link from the Book you'll see where projection systems shine compared to self projection, it is really in the lower reliability players. They don't do a great job with them but when you only have like 250 major league AB to go from a projection system generally works better than just guessing at a future. They also serve as a useful reminder to avoid older players since they regress them so much. Sometimes you are looking at a guy and he has had 5 straight years of steady stats but is 35 years old and it is so tempting to assume he'll have a 6th year with the same stats but the truth is you have to regress him some to get a good projection.

[AquaMan2342]

Agreed on Gonzalez. He's still a superstar but will regress a bit this year while Bruce takes another step forward. Wouldn't be surprised to see Bruce with a higher WAR at all.

[PlayingWithFire]

Here's a crazy one, Jay Bruce is projected for a higher WAR than Carlos Gonzalez this year...

I wouldn't really call that crazy. I wouldn't expect it but it wouldn't shock me either if Bruce outperformed Carlos this year.

Crazy to me is saying something like the Royals will win 100 games this year....

Hey you are still here!

But yeah, this year's Royals is going to be pretty brutal, might be like 04-05 brutal or worse. I literally didn't like any move this offseason besides the necessary Greinke one.