Pedro Alvarez vs Aramis Ramirez or closer (Rivera)

[BALCO All-Stars]

This is one I'm currently debating in a 14 team, 5 keeper league (1B/2B/3B/SS/3 OF/UTIL).

Six teams have 3B, leaving 8 teams needing one. Aramis, Pedro, Young, Pablo, Reynolds, Prado, McGehee still left. I wouldn't mind going closer here either, Rivera is the only top 5 guy left (Marmol, Wilson, Soria, Bell all just taken).

I'm anxious because if I pass on 3B here, I bet at least half of these guys will be gone by my next pick (at a minimum Aramis and Pedro will be gone).

I think Aramis will have a bounce back year and should go .285-.290/25-30 HR/90-100 RBI, but he is an injury risk and is 32. Pedro has tremendous power potential, but what will he hit this year? .250? .260? Or does Pedro have a breakout and becomes a viable keeper immediately? All young talent gets picked early so you have to take a chance, but since this will only be my 7th player I still would like to take reliable over unproven. Or do I just wait a round or two (if they survive) and grab a lesser ceiling guy in Pablo or McGehee or Reynolds?


Current team:
C: V-Mart (kept)
1B:
2B: Pedroia (kept)
3B:
SS: Reyes (kept)
OF: Holliday (kept)
OF:
OF:
UTIL:
SP: Hamels (1st pick)
SP: Cain (kept)
RP:
RP:
P:
P:
P:
Six Bench needed

[avsfan4ever33]

A-Ram is the safer pick here. I don't see Alvarez breaking out this season to the tune of being one of your top five keepers for next season.

[RunReyesRun]

I'd hold off and take McGehee at a cheaper value. I think ARam is the safer pick between the two, but I'm not too high on him this year.

If McGehee falls, Pablo is also another decent sleeper option at 3B

[HOOTIE]

Alvarez
He might not have the best year, but he has the best ceiling and trade value.

[BALCO All-Stars]

Hmmm...interesting. I see Aramis having the best ceiling this year, but injuries add to his variance. But obviously Alvarez is the much better keeper (but we only keep 5)...anyone else?

[mkultra]

Assuming you're 5x5, get Rivera and hope this isn't "the year". All of those 3B are huge question marks, and none have a particularly great ceiling. 30+ saves, a sub-1 WHIP, and a sub-2 ERA are very conservative estimates for Mo. Lock that in!

[BALCO All-Stars]

Assuming you're 5x5, get Rivera and hope this isn't "the year". All of those 3B are huge question marks, and none have a particularly great ceiling. 30+ saves, a sub-1 WHIP, and a sub-2 ERA are very conservative estimates for Mo. Lock that in!

Yes, 5x5 roto.

Anyone else?

[raiders_umpire]

I would definitely pass on Rivera and grab Alvarez. He could very well match Aram this year, and his trade value will be quite a bit higher.

[BALCO All-Stars]

This is the type of discussion that I like...as background I picked Beckham in this round last year thinking he would take the next step forward and the pick was obviously an awful pick...I prefer to not take chances this early (7th player selected) but on the other side you have to in a league like this to get young players.

I should add that a couple of people have said he will have a higher trade value...won't this only be true if he performs this year? In a 5 keeper league nobody will be trading for him if he comes out of the gate whiffing.

[BALCO All-Stars]

Thanks for the help everyone (although I think there was 2 votes for Pedro, 2 for Aramis, and one for Mariano).

I ended up taking Aramis...I feel he has the highest ceiling this year (similar power with Pedro but at least .30 points higher AVG).