This is one I'm currently debating in a 14 team, 5 keeper league (1B/2B/3B/SS/3 OF/UTIL).
Six teams have 3B, leaving 8 teams needing one. Aramis, Pedro, Young, Pablo, Reynolds, Prado, McGehee still left. I wouldn't mind going closer here either, Rivera is the only top 5 guy left (Marmol, Wilson, Soria, Bell all just taken).
I'm anxious because if I pass on 3B here, I bet at least half of these guys will be gone by my next pick (at a minimum Aramis and Pedro will be gone).
I think Aramis will have a bounce back year and should go .285-.290/25-30 HR/90-100 RBI, but he is an injury risk and is 32. Pedro has tremendous power potential, but what will he hit this year? .250? .260? Or does Pedro have a breakout and becomes a viable keeper immediately? All young talent gets picked early so you have to take a chance, but since this will only be my 7th player I still would like to take reliable over unproven. Or do I just wait a round or two (if they survive) and grab a lesser ceiling guy in Pablo or McGehee or Reynolds?
Assuming you're 5x5, get Rivera and hope this isn't "the year". All of those 3B are huge question marks, and none have a particularly great ceiling. 30+ saves, a sub-1 WHIP, and a sub-2 ERA are very conservative estimates for Mo. Lock that in!
mkultra wrote:Assuming you're 5x5, get Rivera and hope this isn't "the year". All of those 3B are huge question marks, and none have a particularly great ceiling. 30+ saves, a sub-1 WHIP, and a sub-2 ERA are very conservative estimates for Mo. Lock that in!
This is the type of discussion that I like...as background I picked Beckham in this round last year thinking he would take the next step forward and the pick was obviously an awful pick...I prefer to not take chances this early (7th player selected) but on the other side you have to in a league like this to get young players.
I should add that a couple of people have said he will have a higher trade value...won't this only be true if he performs this year? In a 5 keeper league nobody will be trading for him if he comes out of the gate whiffing.