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not the hottest keeper question

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not the hottest keeper question

Postby phin66 » Wed Feb 23, 2011 5:34 pm

but who would you keep, Casey Mcgehee or Clay Buchholz? both would be eligible to be drafted in the 24th round of my draft and only kept for one year. my thought is that Buchholz is gonna have a great year but how do you pass up 25 and 100 from a 24th rd 3b?
Last edited by phin66 on Wed Feb 23, 2011 5:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: not the sexiest keeper question

Postby raiders_umpire » Wed Feb 23, 2011 5:48 pm

McGehee
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Re: not the sexiest keeper question

Postby HOOTIE » Wed Feb 23, 2011 7:08 pm

raiders_umpire wrote:McGehee

;-D
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Re: not the hottest keeper question

Postby jtsandwich » Wed Feb 23, 2011 7:12 pm

McGehee is the safer play
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Re: not the sexiest keeper question

Postby MaudDib » Thu Feb 24, 2011 10:28 am

HOOTIE wrote:
raiders_umpire wrote:McGehee

;-D

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Re: not the hottest keeper question

Postby Wadderboiz » Thu Feb 24, 2011 12:13 pm

Buchholz for sure. Consider this: through 62 major league starts his ERA is 3.68 in the toughest division in baseball. Do I see a 2.33 ERA next season? Probably not, but 16-18 wins with an ERA right around 3.00 is pretty nice for a 26 year old SP on what may be the best team in baseball this season.
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Re: not the hottest keeper question

Postby raiders_umpire » Thu Feb 24, 2011 2:18 pm

Wadderboiz wrote:Buchholz for sure. Consider this: through 62 major league starts his ERA is 3.68 in the toughest division in baseball. Do I see a 2.33 ERA next season? Probably not, but 16-18 wins with an ERA right around 3.00 is pretty nice for a 26 year old SP on what may be the best team in baseball this season.



I would guess his ERA will be closer to 4 then 3 in 2011, and then his win total will be closer to the 12-14 range then 16-18
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Re: not the hottest keeper question

Postby Wadderboiz » Thu Feb 24, 2011 3:09 pm

raiders_umpire wrote:I would guess his ERA will be closer to 4 then 3 in 2011, and then his win total will be closer to the 12-14 range then 16-18


Still bitter about 07 Cleveland?

Closer to 4? Are you ignoring the 3.68 career ERA in the majors and the 2.44 ERA in 90 minor league starts? Or are you just assuming a 26 year old top prospect has peaked? Just curious.

He made 28 starts last year, barring injuries he should hit the 30+ start, and the Red Sox should win 10-15 more games, this year, how do you figure Buchholz will win 3-5 less games this year?
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Re: not the hottest keeper question

Postby RDD15 » Thu Feb 24, 2011 4:11 pm

Wadderboiz wrote:
raiders_umpire wrote:I would guess his ERA will be closer to 4 then 3 in 2011, and then his win total will be closer to the 12-14 range then 16-18


Still bitter about 07 Cleveland?

Closer to 4? Are you ignoring the 3.68 career ERA in the majors and the 2.44 ERA in 90 minor league starts? Or are you just assuming a 26 year old top prospect has peaked? Just curious.

He made 28 starts last year, barring injuries he should hit the 30+ start, and the Red Sox should win 10-15 more games, this year, how do you figure Buchholz will win 3-5 less games this year?


So you are questioning Raiders Ump's opinion like he is out of his mind. He said that Buchholz ERA will be closer to 4 than 3. That means he thinks that Buchholz will have a 3.51 ERA or higher. He thinks that he will be more likely to win 12-14 than 16-18. And you think that the Sox should win 99-104 games.

Lets look at some respected predictors of stats:

MARCEL-12 wins and 3.49 ERA
ZIPS-14 wins and 3.79 ERA
JAMES-13 wins and 3.54
ESPN-16 wins and 3.35
CBS-15 wins and 3.46


So only one of these 5 think that he will crack that 16 win plateau, and while three of the five believe that he will have a sub-3.50 ERA, two have him very very close.

Could you possibly be looking at these predictions with some bias yourself? And to suggest that the Sox should easily win 99-104 games is kind of silly. They might have the best team in baseball, but to suggest that 99 wins is essentially a given and 104 would not be surprising is a bit much. It is reasonable to think that one MLB team per season will win 99 or more games on average. You are basically saying that you expect that Boston not only COULD, but rather SHOULD have the best record in baseball. I think that it is near impossible to expect with that much certainty that they are the best team in their own division, no less all of MLB.

If anyone has a skewed view that deserves to be questioned here, its probably you, Sawks fan.

That said, I still take Buchholz over McGehee. Not sold on Casey Mac's bat being for real.
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Re: not the hottest keeper question

Postby HOOTIE » Thu Feb 24, 2011 4:59 pm

Wadderboiz wrote:Buchholz for sure. Consider this: through 62 major league starts his ERA is 3.68 in the toughest division in baseball. Do I see a 2.33 ERA next season? Probably not, but 16-18 wins with an ERA right around 3.00 is pretty nice for a 26 year old SP on what may be the best team in baseball this season.


Career

FIP 4.08
xFIP 4.16

I don't see a 3 era myself. 3.50 and around 13-15. Nice SP, but overrated. Low K/9.
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