Who are you looking at for high risk/high reward pitchers? I'm thinking of guys who had bad years/injuries last year but could turn in top 20 value this year for a big discount.
Webb and Bedard seem like the best bets to me, but Peavy and Harden were both studs (well, with limited time for Harden) before their moves to new environments and if they can adapt a bit better this year, do you think they could turn in valuable years?
Anyone else I'm missing?
AL to NL moves might fit in this category as well.
Jordan Zimmerman is my #1 sleeper that I plan on grabbing in every league. He reminds me of Josh Johnson coming back from his TJ surgery. Zimm struggled in the brief stint in the majors last yr, but was lights out before his callup in the minors (1-something ERA).
I agree with Brandon Webb. He is virtually free in many leagues, so I think he is worth the risk if you can get him cheap. He is a groundball pitcher and has an outstanding defensive infield so he could have some huge success in Texas IF he can stay healthy.
Rich Harden is an interesting case. Its not good that he already has an injury, but much like Webb he is basically free. He has elite k/9 potential, and worth a flier IMO, if there is nothing better and it is a deep league.
Chris Young (NYM), former Padres pitcher, is another guy I might grab/keep an eye on in my dynasty league. He is going to be 32, but will be pitching in metco now so it is close to a lateral move as far as pitchers parks go. Again, he is close to free so there is no risk involved. Could be a solid find off the waiver wire, IMO. Maybe this years Shaun Marcum.
FWIW, they showed Brandon Webb tossing from 90 feet at about 65% effort last night on MLBN & he didn't look right. I only saw him toss like 3 balls, but it looked painful. The real test is this spring, but I don't think that he's close. Plus, it's not like it's just a simple rehab. He's learning how to change arm slots (less ground balls?). If I were to go with any of these pitchers above I would take Peavy. The torn lat muscle is a big deal, but not as big as a shoulder. Early reports seem very positive.
Aaron Harang now with the Padres could surprise. he will be pitching half his games in the best pitchers park. if anything he could be nice just to use at home, and if he can get back to the level he had before Baker messed him up then he could be really good overall.
yeah i'm really avoiding Brandon Webb, he might not be the same pitcher again. Aaron Harang is a favorite of mine, he won't throw 200 k's like he used to but I think his h/9 and hr/9 comes back down to earth and he pulls off a Jon Garland type season with 169 ks, 13 wins a nice 3.90 era.
i cant even consider webb or harden. Both are done. Harden is already being sat for shoulder problems. A couple guys im salivatig for as far as sleepers goes. Justin Durscherer. I know its sounds like im killing my own case here but all reports is that he has been really solid in his return to the majors. But here is my primetime guy. Michael Pineda. You wont see any sleeper posts on him and for good reason. Dynasty and keeper leagues read this twice. He is insane good. He will be a rookie this year for the mariners but he is a big guy sporting a high 90's fastball. His k rate in the minors is great. Reports are saying the rotation spot is his for the taking. Ive read time and again that if not for king felix, he is the 1 starter on the team. Lets not forget they sport on of the best defenses in the game in the second lowest scoring stadium in the bigs. Just be weary of an innings cap. Next is Ricky Nolasco. This guy has it. I just cant figure out why he cant seal the deal. He is just unlucky. Huge k rate. Low walk rate. Low whip. Trust me on this, have him on your team. Hes had his share of injuries but nothing near webbs or hardens, and he is young. Same goes for James Shields, huge bounce back guy
Im liking Anibal Sanchez this year. Rough time with injuries in '08 and '09, but still has decent stuff and no one seems to pick up on him. If anything he is amazing at home. career 3.03 ERA at home and in '10 he had a 2.65 ERA at home. I could see him coming through strong this year. I dont know if he's really a "bounce-back" as he's still only 27.
award1 wrote:A couple guys im salivatig for as far as sleepers goes. Justin Durscherer. I know its sounds like im killing my own case here but all reports is that he has been really solid in his return to the majors.
He is every bit at brittle as those other guys you mentioned. The guy always looks great very early in the year, and then just cannot handle the rigors of being a starting pitcher. His hip/whatever just can't handle that kind of repetition and workload.
If they want anything out of Duke, the bullpen is where he should live.
award1 wrote:But here is my primetime guy. Michael Pineda. You wont see any sleeper posts on him and for good reason.
Like him as well, but have seen many sleeper posts on him.