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How much do you factor in Spring results?

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How much do you factor in Spring results?

Postby fishingmn » Sat Mar 27, 2004 9:50 am

I've been watching the spring results closely and find myself making roster decisions based on how guys are faring so far.

For example, I dropped Brian Lawrence as he's looked terrible and have picked up players like Aaron Harang and Tim Redding who have had good springs.

Does anyone feel this is a bad strategy? Should I be worried about guys like Johan Santana who are struggling and try to trade him or wait out through April and see some real games?

I guess what I'm really asking is how much does a good or bad spring translate into performance in April/May?
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Mar 27, 2004 10:50 am

The answer is..almost nothing. The problem is that there is just too much noise to place too much weight on them. Guys are trying new pitches or stances; they are pitching against a huge variety in talent. Unless it's injury related, I would try to ignore it as much as possible.
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Postby CrimeDog » Sat Mar 27, 2004 11:35 am

I'll make minor changes like adding and dropping fringe type starters or reserve players based on their spring numbers, but nothing major.
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Postby Guest » Sat Mar 27, 2004 11:49 am

Bonds has 5 HRs in his last 12 spring ABs (as of yesterday morning). Hard to ignore.
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Postby EugeneStyles » Sat Mar 27, 2004 11:50 am

I agree with Crime Dog. Brian Lawrence was approx. tied for last starter on my team with Adam Eaton (after I made the most excrutiatingly difficult trade yet, getting Prior straight-up for Gagne... too good not to accept it, but his injury is worse than they thought at first, so it's painful, and I'm down to only 3 reliable closers). Based on Lawrence's spring stats, when it came time to release a starter, he went down and Eaton stayed.

I usually don't even hear much about spring stats, but the things you do hear are probably worth valuing "just a little". I wouldn't avoid drafting Soriano or somebody just cause they had a bad spring.
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Postby PacBellParker » Sat Mar 27, 2004 11:50 am

[quote="Anonymous"]Bonds has 5 HRs in his last 12 spring ABs (as of yesterday morning). Hard to ignore.[/quote]

Oops, forgot to log in.
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Postby sinicalypse » Sat Mar 27, 2004 11:53 am

they're not the end-all, but i use them to fill in the last few bench spots of my roster. while spring stats dont necessarily mean greatness, they can give you a clue of someone who might break out this year.

for example: who'd consider putting mike cuddyer on their bench before this spring? nobody. but when he's hitting .400+ 4 HR 16 rbi and slugging .700? shoot i'm inclined to give him a shot.

last year i was all over tony armas jr for the expos, mainly cuz he had 27K and 3 BB all spring. he was awesome early last year, and he only had one bad start out of like 4 or 5... then after that bad start he needed shoulder surgery and he was out for the year.

but i swear to you, armas was pitching like a madman... so in spring i look for pitchers with staggeringly good #s, hitters who are going apeshit, and if they're previously menial players who nobody will pick up, f0ckit, i'll give 'em a chance to shine on my bench and perhaps into my starting lineup... you never know. it's a gamble, i mean you cant realistically expect to fill a starting position with someone previously unproven who had a hot spring, but i think they do give you ideas, moreso with pitchers than anyone else.
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Postby HOOTIE » Sat Mar 27, 2004 5:17 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:The answer is..almost nothing. The problem is that there is just too much noise to place too much weight on them. Guys are trying new pitches or stances; they are pitching against a huge variety in talent. Unless it's injury related, I would try to ignore it as much as possible.


I agree. In fact this spring i have completely ignored SPRING STATS. I couldn't tell you anything on whos great or bad, other then Drew and Nomo. I don't want those numbers clouding my judgement. My drafts are done, and i ignored spring, except for Nomo only hitting 85 mph.
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Postby fishingmn » Sat Mar 27, 2004 7:00 pm

Here's why I shouldn't worry about Santana after today's game I guess -

IP H R ER BB SO HR
MINNESOTA
J Santana (W,2-0) 5 2 0 0 2 4 0
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Postby RynMan » Sat Mar 27, 2004 7:35 pm

how can u read anything into 25 at-bats? spring training mean nothing. u get hitters that are facing non-roster invitees who are battling jus for a place on the bench, have you seen the guys drew has hit his 5 jacks off?? then you have pitchers jus working on certain things like throwing a pitch when behind in the count etc, and getting tagged for it. spring training is where guys dont care about performance, and jus care about working on things.
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