MasterX1918 wrote:It's an interesting read but the relevance of the article fades a bit knowing that the data only goes up to 2003.
Not really. There needs to be enough MLB data to determine if a prospect is a bust or not. And since that is the focus of the article I would consider it pretty important.
One thing that needs to be mentioned regarding SP bust rate is that almost all starters that move to the bullpen will be considered a bust (<1.5 WAR). Obviously a RP'er is less important than a starter but WAR (based on FIP) undervalues some RP'ers. For whatever reason there are numerous RP'ers whose ERA is consistently better than their FIP. So if career WAR (a large enough sample to use ERA) was based on ERA I think there would be more RP'ers in the success (but not star) category. But pitchers are still much more risky than hitters.