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What to target in each category?

What to target in each category?

Postby dangadd » Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:04 am

Hi all,

I am new to fantasy baseball, been watching baseball about 2 years and this year have been invited to take part in fantasy baseball for the first time. I have been asked to take part in two leagues. It appeals because I am a maths (what you call math, we call maths in the UK) teacher and am enjoying watching baseball a lot.

I want to be competitive and I am looking for advice on what I should be targetting. I read an article by Larry Yorcum on a website (can't remember which) that gave the following stats as a guide for winning your league. It was suggested that you should target 4th in each cat and that this should be enough to do so. He said you'd like to win every cat but that won't be possible 4th in each cat was seen as enough to secure enough points to win the overall league. The stats were:-

848.5 R 219.5 HR 842 RBI 134.5 SB .2905 Avg.
81.5 W 100.5 Saves 1084 K's 3.715 ERA 1.26 WHIP

Now, these setting were for a 5x5 standard 12 team roto league (public not expert) but my league is slightly larger and has 14 teams. The rest of the settings are fairly standard - 162 game position player max, 1250 innings pitched limit etc

How will the extra size of my league change the requirements to win?

My thoughts are that by making the league 15% (roughly) bigger, I could almost reduce the targets by 15%. But that sounds too simplistic to work. Any thoughts?

Also, I have done a few mock drafts and have then been looking at fangraphs to compare my team and their predicted (using Bill James) performances this year with those stats. I am coming up way short in saves ( I get 60ish and need 100). What have I overlooked? Should I have one more (or even 2) more relief pitchers on my roster and then swap starters in and out depending on who is scheduled to start?

All help appreciated,

Dan
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Re: What to target in each category?

Postby footcow » Wed Feb 16, 2011 1:52 pm

It is a good idea to try to be good in a lot of categories instead of great in only a couple like you have said. Mocks are a great way to practice, especially if it is your first time. With regards to saves, closer is a volatile role and many of the players who are projected to get saves may lose their job before the season is through, even the ones with "safe" jobs. If there is any one category that you shouldn't worry too much about being deficient in, saves is it.
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Re: What to target in each category?

Postby footcow » Wed Feb 16, 2011 1:54 pm

Also, in a larger league saves will be even more scarce since the number of closers in the majors remains constant while the demand increased due to the increased number of teams
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Re: What to target in each category?

Postby Broncmet724 » Fri Feb 18, 2011 12:00 pm

If you're a math teacher find a set of projections you like, or make your own, and set them to a z-score to see who is better at each position.

Keep track during the draft to see if you need to target any, what I call, specialists, i.e. stolen guys, to help you in a category late. Load up on power early, draft a catcher late. And try to get 3 closers with solid jobs.
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Re: What to target in each category?

Postby dangadd » Fri Feb 18, 2011 2:07 pm

Thanks for the advice.

Broncmet - have set up a z-score already, have used projections from fangraphs (but as I'm fairly new to baseball my choice of this one was arbitrary). Have then combined the 5 z-scores (for hitters) to create my own ranking. Not sure how good they are though.

I was more after what people thought would be competetive totals/avearges in the 10 cats? Anyone have opinions. I'm a numbers guy and was hoping I could establish what I thought were targets for each cat.
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Re: What to target in each category?

Postby TheWolf » Sat Mar 26, 2011 9:41 am

I've been scouring the web for this information too. This is the first place I've found that has even come close to giving me what I'm looking for.

I've been playing fantasy for years, but I've gotten much more diligent in my draft prep this season. The only thing I'm still missing is what to target in each category. I thought ESPN.com might have this information available somewhere, as they posted it for a standard 10 team league in Matthew Berry's Draft Day Manifesto. But that doesn't do me any good for my 12 team league.

So I've been trying like crazy to find the average stats by roto points earned for a 12-team 5x5 roto league (standard ESPN lineups: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 5 OF, CI, MI, UTIL, 9 P) so I can have a good feel for what to target during my auction.

I think I found the Larry Yocum article that dangadd is referring to, but it's a few years old. It probably doesn't change THAT much from year to year, but I'm wondering if anyone knows of a place to find this for last year's average stats. Thanks in advance!

Great board by the way! I've been skimming a lot of the forums over the last couple weeks and finally decided it was time to join. Glad to be here!
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