I understand that run support may be a variable statistic, however when projecting a player's potential wins and how other factors will contribute to his performance, it would be preposterous to ignore the other 24 players on the roster, especially the offensive supporting cast. It is far from a coincidence that above average pitchers on poor hitting teams struggle more than below average pitchers on good hitting teams. There are immeasurable contributing factors that are directly associated with the team you play for (confidence, pressure, etc.), which always favor successful teams.

That is the very reason a guy like Blanton/Kendrick are drafted in fantasy drafts and Lannan and Ohlendorf are left alone in the same draft. Better hitting teams breed better pitchers. Clearly Morrow and Hughes are comparable pitchers, anyone in this thread who feels the talent is distinctly different is sadly mistaken. So ultimately you have to consider would you rather have pitcher 1a knowing he pitched for the Yankees (#1 run scoring team) or pitcher 1b knowing he pitches for the Blue Jays. 7 out of 10 will take 1a (2 of the 3 that won't are Red Sox fans).

Wadderboiz wrote:I understand that run support may be a variable statistic, however when projecting a player's potential wins and how other factors will contribute to his performance, it would be preposterous to ignore the other 24 players on the roster, especially the offensive supporting cast. It is far from a coincidence that above average pitchers on poor hitting teams struggle more than below average pitchers on good hitting teams. There are immeasurable contributing factors that are directly associated with the team you play for (confidence, pressure, etc.), which always favor successful teams.

I don't think anyone doesn't consider lineup or defense when evaluating pitchers. That's just one of the factors to consider. However, run support and defense aren't really in the pitcher's locus of control. A pitcher might pitch differently with the lead, but how much so is difficult to quantify. With too many factors to consider, it's simpler to look at the numbers which are more in the pitchers' control: velocity, mechanics, pitch movement, etc. The batted ball rates, outside swing and contact %, K/BB rates, and FIP/xFIP only tell one side of the story. However, they're better indicators at a pitcher's individual performance than intangibles can, let alone stats which aren't under the pitchers' total control.

Wadderboiz wrote:That is the very reason a guy like Blanton/Kendrick are drafted in fantasy drafts and Lannan and Ohlendorf are left alone in the same draft. Better hitting teams breed better pitchers. Clearly Morrow and Hughes are comparable pitchers, anyone in this thread who feels the talent is distinctly different is sadly mistaken. So ultimately you have to consider would you rather have pitcher 1a knowing he pitched for the Yankees (#1 run scoring team) or pitcher 1b knowing he pitches for the Blue Jays. 7 out of 10 will take 1a (2 of the 3 that won't are Red Sox fans).

Guys like Blanton and Kendrick are likely to be streamed or on the WW. Their run support could entail that they'll be in position to win, but they're likely to damage your ratios in the process. If that's the case, there's less chance of being in line for a win if they're taken out early.

You seem to be putting too much weight on wins and the factors leading up to it... namely the team. A pitcher with 10 wins, 200 K, 3.65 ERA, 1.25 WHIP is more valuable in fantasy terms than one with 19 wins, 160 K, 4.20 ERA, 1.30 WHIP. That's not necessarily my view on how Morrow and Hughes respectively will pan out, but just conjecture. Given that, a good share of people would take the higher K's and lower ratios, despite the low win count... with the teams they play for a very small consideration.

The Artful Dodger wrote:You seem to be putting too much weight on wins and the factors leading up to it... namely the team. A pitcher with 10 wins, 200 K, 3.65 ERA, 1.25 WHIP is more valuable in fantasy terms than one with 19 wins, 160 K, 4.20 ERA, 1.30 WHIP. That's not necessarily my view on how Morrow and Hughes respectively will pan out, but just conjecture. Given that, a good share of people would take the higher K's and lower ratios, despite the low win count... with the teams they play for a very small consideration.

My point is not, to make wins the be all end all of fantasy pitching statistics. Rather to shed light on the fact that pitching for a winning club with a terrific offense, is a strong factor to consider, when evaluating two very similar pitchers. The original poster was clearly torn between the two, The points I'm attempting to highlight are as follows:

- In terms of actual statistics Hughes lead Morrow in 3 of the 4 SP fantasy categories last season. (CBS projects the same in 2011). - The odds of winning games as a starting pitcher are direct result of run support. - Run support is not some arbitrary "lucky" figure, it is directly reflective of the offense of the team you pitch for. - There are more benefits, of pitching for the best offense in baseball, than the simple measurable statistics (i.e. pitching with a lead more frequently). - In this instance the tangibles are similar, however Hughes will be given a better opportunity for success than Morrow.

Exactly... an expected 2-3 wins based on an expected 12 additional runs in support, gives Hughes an edge. The advantage in run support the Yankees provide is spread across their entire staff. I consider their overall skills to be very similar, so I give neither a significant edge in WHIP or ERA. Saves is a wash. In the final category, an almost certain K/IP ratio advantage goes to Morrow.

One could look at many other factors... but if I just look at those two (K/IP vs additional run support)...

I value an almost certain and significant advantage in one category over what will likely be a measurable (given the run support) but small (given an average of 12 runs across an entire season) advantage in another.

Of course take this to extremes... NYY vs Seattle, and I would weight the team offence more heavily. If Morrow were on the Mariners, I would probably take Hughes. Morrow is not however, on the Mariners, and the Jays are not exactly a low scoring team.

Wadderboiz, I really don't think your statement is accurate regarding "7 out of 10" would take Hughes. I have not counted, but I'm pretty sure the majority of people in this thread have picked Morrow. 2 of the 3 are Red Sox fans? I'm not... so I guess that means that every single other person who said Morrow is a Red Sox fan? Somehow I doubt it...

Wadderboiz wrote:My point is not, to make wins the be all end all of fantasy pitching statistics. Rather to shed light on the fact that pitching for a winning club with a terrific offense, is a strong factor to consider, when evaluating two very similar pitchers. The original poster was clearly torn between the two, The points I'm attempting to highlight are as follows:

- In terms of actual statistics Hughes lead Morrow in 3 of the 4 SP fantasy categories last season. (CBS projects the same in 2011). - The odds of winning games as a starting pitcher are direct result of run support. - Run support is not some arbitrary "lucky" figure, it is directly reflective of the offense of the team you pitch for. - There are more benefits, of pitching for the best offense in baseball, than the simple measurable statistics (i.e. pitching with a lead more frequently). - In this instance the tangibles are similar, however Hughes will be given a better opportunity for success than Morrow.

Hughes was better than Morrow on last year's stats, but we're trying to predict who will be the better pitcher this season. It's not about the numbers they put up last year, it's about paying for who could put up the better numbers going forward. According to some sabermetric indicators, Morrow pitched better than his actual output, which is a good probability that he'll continue to improve this year. Hughes' ERA/WHIP will be affected some by his ballpark and the last two years, he's yielded a high strand rate. If Hughes had thrown 180 innings in '09, it would have been likely that he was on the path to taking a regression, similar to last year.

Also, winning games isn't entirely reliant on run support. It's a significant factor, but not the clear-cut significant factor. Pitchers are more likely to be in line for a win if they pitch deep into games, which requires some deal of efficiency in pitch count (aggressiveness in the count, limiting runs and walks, etc.).

Re: Projections... I don't trust one projection source over another, but take into account most/all of them and then come up with my own conclusions. Here's a rough projection I have for both...

Like I said before, they're quite close. Hughes' BB rate is better than Morrow and he figures to be the safer bet to be efficient. I will say that Morrow's improved K/BB rate and his FIP/xFIP are tantalizing enough to think he has better upside this year. Also, Morrow had a really high .342 BABIP and that should normalize. Hence, a sub-1.35 WHIP.

Wadderboiz wrote:- In terms of actual statistics Hughes lead Morrow in 3 of the 4 SP fantasy categories last season. (CBS projects the same in 2011).

- The odds of winning games as a starting pitcher are direct result of run support.

- Run support is not some arbitrary "lucky" figure, it is directly reflective of the offense of the team you pitch for.

- There are more benefits, of pitching for the best offense in baseball, than the simple measurable statistics (i.e. pitching with a lead more frequently).

- In this instance the tangibles are similar, however Hughes will be given a better opportunity for success than Morrow.

Just because Hughes beat Morrow in 3 of 4 last year, doesn't mean it will happen again. You have to look at how those numbers came about. There isn't one serious analyst, who won't dispute Hughes got luckier in a number of stats, leading to those end numbers.

The odds favor getting more run support the more your team scores true. But it doesn't guarantee anything. Pitchers on the same club often have 2 to 3 run differences. It's like throwing snake eyes at crap, it happens. Each of the starting 5 don't get a even share of the support.

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I wouldn't mind having either/or, but I play mainly auction leagues, IMO Hughes will garner too much money, due to the team he is on, and too me is a high risk player due to ball park dynamics. Morrow to me is a low risk/high reward player. I also think Hughes will be under more pressure due to the fact that NY got skunked this offseason, and will rely heavily on him as a #2 to catch the Sox, whereas Morrow really doesn't have that pressure. Bsically NY=win now or else, Toronto=if we contend that's groovy