Keeper Conundrum: Nolasco, Victorino, Chacin, Soto? - WHIR

[plapre3]

As a keeper league deal, this is a bit more complicated than it seems. First off, we may keep between 5 and 10 players headed into next season, losing a pick in the remaining player draft for each keeper after 5. As such, that means in order to keep 10 players, a guy should be roughly considered a top 140 pick. If a guy would be my 9th keeper, he should be seen as a top 125 player. Younger players and starting pitchers tend to be at a premium so consider that when thinking of a top 140 pick. Secondly, any player who has less than 200 ABs or 70 IP/ 20 APP both this season AND last is a free minor league keeper. They have to have been picked up on or before August 15, though, so at that deadline I stockpiled minors guys in hopes of dealing them in the offseason.

The conundrum is this: I feel like my top 7 guys are set, but am I better off testing the draft for the remaining picks or keeping some of them? Victorino goes around the 8th round in many mock drafts, and I even buy into the idea of a bounceback for him (mostly because of his solid track record and low for him BABIP last year), but this league does count OPS... how much value does that cost him? Additionally, I think Nolasco and Chacin will be very solid in 2011, but is either a top 140 pick? I like Chacin as he has excellent stuff and is still only 23, but I'm still not sold on a guy with 4 bb/9.

Thanks, all, in advance for your help. Please leave a link and I will respond.
----------------------------------------------------
6x6 weekly HtH 14 team roto keeper (bet. 5 and 10 keepers losing a draft pick for each after 5)

Offensive Categories:
BA, OPS, RBI, HR, SB and Runs Scored.

Pitching Categories:
W-L, S, ERA, K/IP, Quality Starts and WHIP
----------------------------------------------------
My team with the players broken break down into tiers as I see their value:

Tier 1: Hanley Ramirez, Prince Fielder, Kevin Youkilis, Roy Halladay, Jon Lester
Tier 2: Shin Soo Choo, Ian Kinsler
Do I keep any of the guys below?
Tier 3: Shane Victorino, Ricky Nolasco, Jouhlys Chacin, Geovanny Soto
Tier 4: Jordan Zimmermann, Carlos Pena

Free Minors Keepers as I currently rank them:
Keepers (in order): Wil Myers, Brandon Belt, Jason Kipnis, Zack Britton, Simon Castro,
Trade Bait (in order): Lorenzo Cain, Lonnie Chisenhall, John Lamb, Aaron Hicks, Jaff Decker

[KSig24]

Who else do you have on your team for keepers at this point?

[ramble2]

I'd rank those four as Victorino, Chacin, Soto, Nolasco.

I'm with you, sort of, on Victorino. I even posted about it to gauge other people's thoughts, and I've since tempered my enthusiasm a little bit.

After that things get a little dicey, on my view. I'm nowhere near as high on Nolasco as most everyone else seems to be. Honestly, on a given day I could rank those three in just about any order.

I'd keep Victorino. He's a good value in the 8th round. I wouldn't keep any of the other three, the thinking being that you'll probably find players just as interesting (or better) available in the 9th and 10th rounds. If nothing else, it'll give you the flexibility to select players of equivalent value but maybe at better positions given what others have kept.

[MaudDib]

I am really not sold on any of them. I don't know if you can really assume Victorino is going to get better. He is getting older and the lineup he is in is getting older. Pay for last years numbers and hope for something better but don't go in expecting it. I think I would let them all go and see what you can get with that pick. I would bet any of those guys will still be there and if that is the best pick at that point then go for it but there could be something better.

[plapre3]

Thanks, all. Anyone else?