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Jed Lowrie

Postby CBMGreatOne » Thu Feb 10, 2011 9:52 pm

I'm beginning to think Jed Lowrie is more than just a deep sleeper.

Sure, he's technically buried on the depth chart, but he was a .900 OPS guy in limited at bats last year. He'll be playing in a lineup that just added Crawford and Gonzo, and is getting Youk and Pedroia back. If he manages to win the SS job from Scutaro (and he should), he is a much better offensive player.

Even as it is, I don't think he's a waste to carry on your roster, especially if you wait until very late to draft middle infield.

If I take Desmond as my SS, I might be inclined to grab Lowrie as well, since he'll be an upgrade over Desmond while he plays, and also a backup/off day fill in for both middle infield positions. There may be 4 SSs in baseball who have his upside if he starts, and even getting that kind of production on the 3 games he starts per week will be a nice boost for any team that drafts him.

On a side note, the Red Sox are looking like one of those offenses where I wouldn't mind having 4 guys from the same lineup.

1B- Gonzo
2B- Pedroia
3B- Youk
OF- Crawford

If I could get all 4 of those guys in an auction, I would do it without hesitation. I would put all my eggs in one basket and be proud to do it.
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Re: Jed Lowrie

Postby MTUCache » Thu Feb 10, 2011 10:36 pm

CBMGreatOne wrote:On a side note, the Red Sox are looking like one of those offenses where I wouldn't mind having 4 guys from the same lineup.

1B- Gonzo
2B- Pedroia
3B- Youk
OF- Crawford

Not a bad thought, but those four guys are only going to make it onto your roster for 50% of your auction budget or your first four picks (in an 8-team league).

I'm looking a little more closely (in deeper leagues anyway) at grabbing four guys off of a different lineup... Baltimore's now sporting Vlad, D.Lee, Reynolds, and Roberts. All of them are gambles, but they're all about a quarter of the price of the four guys you've listed as well. :p
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Re: Jed Lowrie

Postby CBMGreatOne » Fri Feb 11, 2011 12:28 am

MTUCache wrote:
CBMGreatOne wrote:On a side note, the Red Sox are looking like one of those offenses where I wouldn't mind having 4 guys from the same lineup.

1B- Gonzo
2B- Pedroia
3B- Youk
OF- Crawford

Not a bad thought, but those four guys are only going to make it onto your roster for 50% of your auction budget or your first four picks (in an 8-team league).

I'm looking a little more closely (in deeper leagues anyway) at grabbing four guys off of a different lineup... Baltimore's now sporting Vlad, D.Lee, Reynolds, and Roberts. All of them are gambles, but they're all about a quarter of the price of the four guys you've listed as well. :p


Lol, with about a quarter of the upside. I don't mind it at all though considering in the case of Baltimore, you'd be happy if two of them stuck, getting 3 or 4 viable starters would be gravy. In the Boston scenario, they'd all have to pay off for it to be worth it, but I think they very easily could. Incidentally, I think if I could get those four players for 130 out of a 260 budget, I'd be ok with that. Something like Gonzo- 40, Pedroia- 23, Youk- 27, Crawford- 40 would be fantastic in my book (probably not even possible). Derrek Lee could be a $1 player and is definitely a guy on my radar.

Lowrie will almost certainly be a $1/$2 player and will be on all of my teams this year.
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Re: Jed Lowrie

Postby Havok1517 » Fri Feb 11, 2011 2:33 am

I think it goes without saying that Lawrie is the more talented player when compared to Scutaro. Therefore, it may take a bit of time for him to become the starting player but his multiple MI eligibility and his late season '10 surge, yeah, he has value.
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Re: Jed Lowrie

Postby PlayingWithFire » Fri Feb 11, 2011 3:53 am

Havok1517 wrote:I think it goes without saying that Lawrie is the more talented player when compared to Scutaro. Therefore, it may take a bit of time for him to become the starting player but his multiple MI eligibility and his late season '10 surge, yeah, he has value.


No way, I agree with Havok on something?

Scutaro is not a bad option, but I believe the Sox will work Lawrie in there as much as possible (as long as he is hitting), .900 OPS is not really feasible for Lawrie but .800, sure. In that lineup that has value.
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Re: Jed Lowrie

Postby nsulham » Fri Feb 11, 2011 8:59 am

The question with Jed has always been health. IF he can stay healthy over a whole season, and that's a big if, then he's going to open up a lot of eyes. Die-hard Sox fans have got a taste of what he can do and we're just waiting for him to reach his full potential; I don't think the casual fan knows how good he can be. All comes down to health.
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Re: Jed Lowrie

Postby kab21 » Fri Feb 11, 2011 12:18 pm

nsulham wrote:The question with Jed has always been health. IF he can stay healthy over a whole season, and that's a big if, then he's going to open up a lot of eyes. Die-hard Sox fans have got a taste of what he can do and we're just waiting for him to reach his full potential; I don't think the casual fan knows how good he can be. All comes down to health.


He can be a nice player but he's not going to open up any eyes. Last year was a complete fluke based on 171 AB's. And he's not going to be much in fantasy unless you're in deep leagues. He hit 29 HR's and stole 16 bases in 372 MiLB games.

reasonable projections (<.800 OPS) .285, 10+ HR's, <5 SB's and he'll probably bat at the bottom of the order so his R/RBI's will be avg at best even in a loaded lineup.
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Re: Jed Lowrie

Postby Saltydog » Fri Feb 11, 2011 12:51 pm

Unless Youkilis, or Pedroia go down for a significant amount of time. He's only gonna see part time action as a replacement for Scutaro.

Youk and Pedroia are gamers, and if healthy will play 150+ games each. Unless Scutaro pulls a Julio Lugo or Mark Bellhorn and falls completely apart, I don't see Lowrie playing more than once, maybe twice a week.

He's the Sox version of Super Utility, so he won't get traded somewhere for more AB's. Unless you're in a reasonably deep AL only league, he's waiver wire material for now.
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Re: Jed Lowrie

Postby OldEnglishZ » Fri Feb 11, 2011 1:02 pm

AL-only with a MI position, he can be a steal. I plan on taking him late in my auction hopefully for a $1.
Image

Only play deep AL-only formats.
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Re: Jed Lowrie

Postby Sticky Spice » Fri Feb 11, 2011 4:00 pm

kab21 wrote:He can be a nice player but he's not going to open up any eyes. Last year was a complete fluke based on 171 AB's. And he's not going to be much in fantasy unless you're in deep leagues. He hit 29 HR's and stole 16 bases in 372 MiLB games.

reasonable projections (<.800 OPS) .285, 10+ HR's, <5 SB's and he'll probably bat at the bottom of the order so his R/RBI's will be avg at best even in a loaded lineup.


I can appreciate the hard numbers. I think that combined with the fact that he doesn't have a starting job yet makes him an iffy bet for shallow leagues. But for deeper leagues, I think he is exactly what we are looking for as we try to figure out who will outperform their fantasy salary.

It's not like he came out of nowhere like Andres Torres. He's been steadily climbing through the ranks and he has some pedigree as former Pac-10 player of the year and 2007 Red Sox Offensive Player of the Year. I know this makes me a terrible person, but I'm going to quote CBSSports:

"He could become a more powerful, less speedy version of Pedroia, walking as often as he strikes out with a high batting average."

This is exactly along the lines of what I've seen said about him since I started following him a couple of years ago. A MI with pop, avg, obp, and better than average production as a result of his skills and his team.

The real questions have already been stated. #1 - his health. We can discount the mono since that isn't structural, but the wrist issues are a concern. When his wrist is bothering him it saps his power and he gets into bad habits. #2 - playing time. Even if he doesn't win a starting job out of spring, and even if Scutaro is considered the starter all year, Francona has said he expects to use Lowrie as a super utility meaning he should get 400+ at bats. That makes him a poor bet in shallow leagues, but just fine in deep. Plus the added bonus of extra positional qualifications.

I'm not saying he's a breakout star, but I think he's a good place to find value in deeper leagues. I'm going to try it myself.
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