Ask the King: Fantasy Baseball King's mail bag

[fantasybaseballking]

Dear Fellow Fantasy Baseball Enthusiasts,

Years ago, I authored a popular fantasy baseball website, Fantasy Baseball King. Unfortunately, I lost the URL rights and thus stopped writing. I missed doing so, however, and have recently attempted to get back into the industry. I now have a new blog, http://thefantasybaseballking.blogspot.com

I would like to dedicate this thread to answering questions you may have regarding fantasy baseball.

Feel free to fire away! Although I cannot guarantee to know everything, I love a good challenge

[massespub]

12 team 5x5 keeper league: We can keep players we picked up as free agents for $12. So, which, if any, of these players would you keep for $12? B Gardner, Chris B. Young, D Hudson, J Chacin, CJ Wilson. Right now my plan is to keep Gardner and Young. I'm considering keeping Hudson but am not sure if I'd be overpaying for him at $12. What do you think? Thanks for your help!

[fantasybaseballking]

Massespub,

Thanks for the question!

While Jhoulys Chacin and Chris B. Young are personal favorites of mine, it is difficult to make a suggestion without more information on your team. Would be mind posting your roster?

In the meantime, please note my synopses below:

Brett Gardner has been bettering his game with each passing year. While he will remain valuable so long as the Yankees offense continues to rock, I feel his overall game may be limited. 2011 Prediction: .285, 7 homers, 50 rbis, 100 runs, 48 steals

Chris B. Young established himself as a true power threat in 2010. Additionally, his walk rate increased and he resumed stealing bases at a high rate. Whether or not his growth is for real, however, is yet to be determined. As such, 2011 remains a pivotal year for him. I, for one, am a believer. 2011 Prediction: .265, 30 homers, 95 rbis, 95 runs, 24 steals

Dan Hudson blew away expectations last year, and made the White Sox look foolish for trading him. Long-term, I'm a big fan of his ability to post #2 starter stats (both real life and fantasy), but admit I'm a little worried about fatigue entering his second full season. Thus, I am predicting a short-term regression. 2011 Prediction: 12 wins, 3.97 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 48 BB, 173 K's.

Jhoulys Chacin has been an old favorite of mine ever since he posted insane numbers back in 2008 in A league ball. Battling back injuries, he emerged under-the-radar last season and posted some very nice numbers in the majors. Most analysts see him as a #3 starter long-term, but I'm much more bullish. I can easily see him settling in as a #2, and possibly even as an ace. 2011 Prediction: 13 wins, 3.45 ERA. 1.28 WHIP, 88 BB's, 187 K's.

CJ Wilson. Who? Wow, where did THAT come from? If you predicted Mr. Wilson would have the season he did in 2010, congratulations; you truly deserve a prize. After five seasons of very up-and-down middle relief results, I'm not sure last season was the real CJ Wilson. Still, in a deep league, I could see value in his strikeout ability. 2011 Prediction: 11 wins, 4.15 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 85 BB's, 167 K's.

Without knowing your team's needs, I would rank them as such:

Short Term

Chris B. Young
Brett Gardner
Jhoulys Chacin
Dan Hudson
CJ Wilson

Long Term

Chris B. Young
Jhoulys Chacin
Dan Hudson
Brett Gardner
CJ Wilsom

[massespub]

Thanks for the detailed reply. So we can keep up to 10 players and prices increase by $2 each year. FA pickups get a salary of $10, which goes up to $12 the next year. Roster spots: C,1B,2B,3B,SS,OF,OF,OF,Util,Util,SP,SP,SP,SP,SP,SP,RP,RP and 5 BN spots.

Here are guys I'm definitely keeping with their 2011 prices:
1) Pujols $52 - I know it's a lot, but I think with league-wide inflation he would go for a bit more in next year's draft.
2) Cano $26
3) Zimmerman $30
4) Bruce $15
5) Hamels $15
6) Soria $15

Players I am probably keeping:
C Young $12
Gardner $12

Players I might keep:
D Hudson $12 - I am more of a believer in his stuff than Chacin and Wilson so I would probably keep him if I decide $12 is a decent price. I don't want to lock up that much money on pitching so I would probably only keep one SP in addition to Hamels.
Verlander $25 - I think this is a bit high so likely won't keep him.
M Rivera $17 - Since I'm keeping Soria I don't plan on keeping Mo since this price isn't great value

Players I probably won't keep, but am considering:
J Chacin $12
CJ Wilson $12 - Actually, I'm not really considering him. Forget I mentioned him in my original post.
B Roberts $12 - Don't need him b/c I have Cano. Don't think this is great value.
Werth $24 - Not a great price.

[STEEL68]

Draft Question: League Information is below.

My Keepers in 2011: Votto-1B, Cano -2B and Longoria - 3B - Will be 4 in 2012 and 5 in 2013
I am picking 12 and 13 which is 48/49 when counting keepers. Last year my first pitcher was Billingsley at 67. I try to load up on hitting early and get a bunch of #2 and 3 starters in middle rounds. 2 start pitchers are very important in weekly scoring.

So with that in mind, how do you rate the following guys that are projecting to be available at my picks. (This is my tentative order.)
Posey, J Reyes, Cain, K Morales, Ja Weaver, Latos, McCutchen, D Price, B Butler, Markakis, Dunn
I am hoping J Bruce will last til 72/73.

Thanks

CBS Weekly H2H Points League- 12 teams - scoring as follows:
Batting: 1 Point for 1b, R, RBI and BB, 2b=2, 3b=3, HR=5, SB =1.5 CS = -1, K = -1
Hitting: 1 pnt for IP and K, W = 10, L = -5, S = 4, BS = -2, ER = -1, CG = 5, Shut Out = 10, NH = 25
Weekly Roster is 3SP, 2 RP, C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 3OF, and 1 DH

[Remotethumb]

Hey king, thanks

12 team mixed - 5 x 5 (AVG/R/HR/RBI/SB) (ERA/W/WHIP/SV/K) - salary cap $280 - 23 man roster
h2h weekly - we keep 4 players each year (we must keep 4)
start1 each position plus DH(any pos.), start 5 SP and 2 RP each week

Keep 4. player's salary below is only if I keep them. Everyone of them will be more expensive if I throw them back & re-acquire them in the redraft. (except Teixeira)

I'm thinking of keeping Votto, Tulowitzki, Dunn (DH), and Rickie Weeks (who would be $24 in a redraft)
Am I crazy for not keeping either Hanson and/or Jimenez?

keep 4:
1B Votto ($29)
1B Dunn ($21)
1B Tex ($34)
2B R. Weeks ($17)
SS Tulowitzki ($28)
OF C. Rasmus ($13)
OF M. Bourn ($15)
SP U. Jimenez($23)
SP T. Hanson ($20)
SP Anibal Sanchez ($5)
SP Jaime Garcia ($9)
RP Drew Storen ($7)

[MaudDib]

Just a thought but you could also do something for this site as well. If you go to the paper and pen section they are always looking for writers.

[charris414]

I'm looking for some advice for an upcoming dynasty league auction. Here are the particulars:
6x6 with OPS and holds
15 teams, 36 man rosters (normal hitters, 7 SPs, 6 RPs, 10 bench
$360 budget

I've adjusted my dollar values to account for the league size and budgets, and calculated an 78% ideal bid price to maximize value.

My question(s):
1. In a league this deep, which players have the most value: the stars, the middle of the pack, or the < $5 guys?
2. What would be a solid budget strategy? I'm leaning towards trying to get an elite player at two of the following three positions SS, 2B, and 3B. And probably leaning towards SS and 3B.
3. Given two anchors, how would you spread out your budget, and when would you start jumping back in?

[fantasybaseballking]

Thanks for the detailed reply. So we can keep up to 10 players and prices increase by $2 each year. FA pickups get a salary of $10, which goes up to $12 the next year. Roster spots: C,1B,2B,3B,SS,OF,OF,OF,Util,Util,SP,SP,SP,SP,SP,SP,RP,RP and 5 BN spots.

Here are guys I'm definitely keeping with their 2011 prices:
1) Pujols $52 - I know it's a lot, but I think with league-wide inflation he would go for a bit more in next year's draft.
2) Cano $26
3) Zimmerman $30
4) Bruce $15
5) Hamels $15
6) Soria $15

Players I am probably keeping:
C Young $12
Gardner $12

Players I might keep:
D Hudson $12 - I am more of a believer in his stuff than Chacin and Wilson so I would probably keep him if I decide $12 is a decent price. I don't want to lock up that much money on pitching so I would probably only keep one SP in addition to Hamels.
Verlander $25 - I think this is a bit high so likely won't keep him.
M Rivera $17 - Since I'm keeping Soria I don't plan on keeping Mo since this price isn't great value

Players I probably won't keep, but am considering:
J Chacin $12
CJ Wilson $12 - Actually, I'm not really considering him. Forget I mentioned him in my original post.
B Roberts $12 - Don't need him b/c I have Cano. Don't think this is great value.
Werth $24 - Not a great price.

Thanks for the additional info. We both agree on Young, so figure he's one of your definite keepers. As for Gardner, it all really depends on who else you have in the OF. If you have other options, I'd say take one of Hudson or Chacin. But with SP so strong these days, and OF having been in relative decline, Gardner can certainly be useful if your current OF talent is thin. If those are your only keepers, I'd imagine there is a pretty big FA pool to start the season. Thus you should be able to pick up some decent pitching options from there. When it comes to Hudson versus Chacin, I'm of the mindset that Hudson has a higher floor while Chacin has a higher ceiling. Take your risks as you see fit, but long-term, I like them both...ALOT.

Hope that helped; good luck!

[fantasybaseballking]

Draft Question: League Information is below.

My Keepers in 2011: Votto-1B, Cano -2B and Longoria - 3B - Will be 4 in 2012 and 5 in 2013
I am picking 12 and 13 which is 48/49 when counting keepers. Last year my first pitcher was Billingsley at 67. I try to load up on hitting early and get a bunch of #2 and 3 starters in middle rounds. 2 start pitchers are very important in weekly scoring.

So with that in mind, how do you rate the following guys that are projecting to be available at my picks. (This is my tentative order.)
Posey, J Reyes, Cain, K Morales, Ja Weaver, Latos, McCutchen, D Price, B Butler, Markakis, Dunn
I am hoping J Bruce will last til 72/73.

Thanks

CBS Weekly H2H Points League- 12 teams - scoring as follows:
Batting: 1 Point for 1b, R, RBI and BB, 2b=2, 3b=3, HR=5, SB =1.5 CS = -1, K = -1
Hitting: 1 pnt for IP and K, W = 10, L = -5, S = 4, BS = -2, ER = -1, CG = 5, Shut Out = 10, NH = 25
Weekly Roster is 3SP, 2 RP, C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 3OF, and 1 DH

Steel-- Thanks for the question! Wow, It's hard to imagine that list of players really went unprotected; how many owners are in your league?

For a reference point, Mock Draft Central (http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/report_adp.jsp) reports the ADP (Average Draft Position) of your list is as follows:

28.11 Jose Reyes
45.23 Buster Posey
46.25 Andrew McCutchen
49.19 Adam Dunn
55.26 Jared Weaver
57.52 Kendry Morales
61.72 David Price
72.20 Matt Latos
78.78 Jay Bruce
83.85 Billy Butler
87.96 Matt Cain
114.15 Nick Markakis

Come draft day, of course, and depending on your league, some of this may change. My feelings as follows:

Jose Reyes- currently undervalued. Should he prove to be healthy come draft day, should shoot up a bit. Figure top 20-25 at the least.

Buster Posey- While I love his real world skills, I'm afraid he's a tad overvalued at the moment. Carlos Santana, who may provide very similar stats in 2011, is being drafted at 115.98.

Andrew McCutchen- I'd draft this guy in the top 30 if I could. I see a big year coming up; severely undervalued.

Adam Dunn- Seems about right. Depends on how well your team could stand the batting average hit, but he's as reliable as they come. 40 homers, banked.

Kendry Morales- If healthy, will provide stats somewhere between Justin Morneau and Mark Teixeira.

David Price- Great pitcher, but don't expect last year's numbers. Looking past him on the ADP, I can count 4 pitchers I consider to be better drafts: Justin Verlander (64.77), Yovani Gallardo (66.24), Josh Johnson (66.85) and Francisco Liriano (77.89).

Matt Latos- if his arm stays attached, could prove undervalued. A real shot at ace-hood in 2011.

Jay Bruce- Like McCutchen, Bruce is ready to burst. While his stats seem underwhelming at first glance, remember his age and make sure to thank him when he hits 40 home runs. Will it be in 2011? I could easily see it!

Billy Butler- There's nothing wrong with John Olerud or Mark Grace, but they certainly weren't fantasy superstars. Still, Butler's body build seems to be holding more power than he's shown. I wouldn't be shocked by a 30 homer season, but only draft him if your team can balance should he only hit 20.

Matt Cain- Undervalued here due to lack of wins. Hopefully, he'll finally get the run support to win at least 15 games. Everything else is silky smooth.

Nick Markakis- He's only a year removed from being mentioned as an up-and-coming superstar. Recall David Wright's power outage from 2009 and pray Markakis recovers in a similar manner. Don't make him anything more than your #3 OF, however.