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Re: 1st Year Prospect Draft - 3rd Pick - WHIR

Postby kab21 » Fri Feb 11, 2011 11:30 pm

I like Parker (and then Lamb) with your next pick. He might be risky coming off TJ but he's got big upside and he's close to the majors. And he was looking good in the instructional league last fall so he has pitched some.

Mesoraco would be next but Norris and Rosario are pretty good catchers also. so you can wait. And yes catchers bust a lot but so do prospects in general. And the catcher spot in fantasy is terrible outside of the top 5 or so each year. And in a 10 team, 8 prospect league it's easy to replace a busted prospect with a good prospect.

I like Kipnis as a prospect but I think he falls into the 10th-15th best 2Bman ceiling issue. And in a ten team league it seems like you can find guys like on the waiver wire.
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Re: 1st Year Prospect Draft - 3rd Pick - WHIR

Postby Johnny Deuce » Sat Feb 12, 2011 4:24 pm

After I picked Singleton, the next prospects taken were;

Jarrod Parker
Jacob Turner
Nick Castellanos
Miguel Sano

Then it was back to me, so I went with John Lamb.

I have three more picks so I think I'll go with two more hitters and one more pitcher. I'm a Jays fan and wouldn't mind picking up another Jays prospect. Do you guys have any opinions on;
Travis d'Arnaud
Zach Stewart
Aaron Sanchez


My prospects so far;

Domonic Brown
Kyle Drabek
Manny Machado
Jonathan Singleton
John Lamb
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Re: 1st Year Prospect Draft - 3rd Pick - WHIR

Postby mblax10 » Sat Feb 12, 2011 5:02 pm

Johnny Deuce wrote:I have three more picks so I think I'll go with two more hitters and one more pitcher. I'm a Jays fan and wouldn't mind picking up another Jays prospect. Do you guys have any opinions on;
Travis d'Arnaud
Zach Stewart
Aaron Sanchez


I think all 3 are a bit of a reach at this point in the draft. The Baseball America folks seem to be really high on D'Arnaud.

Derrek Norris seems to be falling way too far. His power should come back this season now that he's a year removed from wrist surgery and he should rise a good amount this year.
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Re: 1st Year Prospect Draft - 3rd Pick - WHIR

Postby mblax10 » Sat Feb 12, 2011 5:09 pm

PlayingWithFire wrote:Catching prospects are one of my least favorite things. The bust rate is way too high.

Remember JD Closser? George Kottaras? Chris Ianetta? Taylor Teagarden? Jarrod Saltlamacchia?

Exactly...


Salty is the only one you listed who was a top 100 type prospect. He's still only 26 and will compete for a starting job in the spring.
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Re: 1st Year Prospect Draft - 3rd Pick - WHIR

Postby PlayingWithFire » Sat Feb 12, 2011 6:21 pm

mblax10 wrote:
PlayingWithFire wrote:Catching prospects are one of my least favorite things. The bust rate is way too high.

Remember JD Closser? George Kottaras? Chris Ianetta? Taylor Teagarden? Jarrod Saltlamacchia?

Exactly...


Salty is the only one you listed who was a top 100 type prospect. He's still only 26 and will compete for a starting job in the spring.


Not true, top 100 prospect is really not that exclusive, looking at BA top 100(reputable, easy to find for me), catching prospects are below with their year and ranking.

2000
Ben Petrick 35-Parkinson's
Matt Lecroy 44-MLB utility man, not really a catcher
Jayson Werth 48-Not a catcher, good hitter, developed late
Steve Lomasney 50-Who?
Ryan Christianson 85-Who?

2001
JR House 21-Backup
Brandon Inge 67-Not a catcher, useful utility guy IRL
Dane Sardinha 74-Backup at best
Joe Lawrence 99-Who?

2002
Joe Mauer 7-Obviously great
Josh Phelps 36-Not a catcher, not a major leaguer
John Buck 43-Some very average/below average years in KC, one good year in Toronto, can he keep it up?
Victor Martinez 97-obviously great

2003
Jeff Mathis 48-MLB backup at best
Justin Huber 66-Not a C, not a MLBer

2004
Guillermo Quiroz 35-bust, not even a major leaguer
Dionner Navarro 41-decent
Kelly Shoppach 78-a couple decent years

2005
Daric Barton 32-Not a catcher
Brian McCann 44-Great
Neil Walker 81-Not a catcher
Russ Martin 89-some great years

2006
18-Salty-not great so far, outlook really isn't that great
33-Jeff Clement-not really a catcher, bust so far
66-Kenji Johjima-does he even count as a prospect?

After 2006 we start running into guys(like Montero) that's still in the minors or are too early to tell.

Summary

25 total prospects

Guys that's no longer catcher (8)
Matt Lecroy, Jayson Werth, Brandon Inge, Josh Phelps, Justin Huber, Daric Barton, Neil Walker, Jeff Clement

Guys that worked out great (4)
Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, Russ Martin, Brian McCann

Guys that can help out a fantasy team, besides the elite guys (3)
John Buck, Dionner Navarro, Kelly Shoppach

The rest are busts except Ben Petrick, who is on his way to a pretty good career until Parkinson's took that from him. I'm ready to call Salty a bust, he's had plenty of chances and just didn't capitalize. Red Sox also aren't the greatest with reclamation projects lately...
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Re: 1st Year Prospect Draft - 3rd Pick - WHIR

Postby mblax10 » Sat Feb 12, 2011 8:47 pm

PlayingWithFire wrote:
mblax10 wrote:
PlayingWithFire wrote:Catching prospects are one of my least favorite things. The bust rate is way too high.

Remember JD Closser? George Kottaras? Chris Ianetta? Taylor Teagarden? Jarrod Saltlamacchia?

Exactly...


Salty is the only one you listed who was a top 100 type prospect. He's still only 26 and will compete for a starting job in the spring.


Not true, top 100 prospect is really not that exclusive, looking at BA top 100(reputable, easy to find for me), catching prospects are below with their year and ranking.

2000
Ben Petrick 35-Parkinson's
Matt Lecroy 44-MLB utility man, not really a catcher
Jayson Werth 48-Not a catcher, good hitter, developed late
Steve Lomasney 50-Who?
Ryan Christianson 85-Who?

2001
JR House 21-Backup
Brandon Inge 67-Not a catcher, useful utility guy IRL
Dane Sardinha 74-Backup at best
Joe Lawrence 99-Who?

2002
Joe Mauer 7-Obviously great
Josh Phelps 36-Not a catcher, not a major leaguer
John Buck 43-Some very average/below average years in KC, one good year in Toronto, can he keep it up?
Victor Martinez 97-obviously great

2003
Jeff Mathis 48-MLB backup at best
Justin Huber 66-Not a C, not a MLBer

2004
Guillermo Quiroz 35-bust, not even a major leaguer
Dionner Navarro 41-decent
Kelly Shoppach 78-a couple decent years

2005
Daric Barton 32-Not a catcher
Brian McCann 44-Great
Neil Walker 81-Not a catcher
Russ Martin 89-some great years

2006
18-Salty-not great so far, outlook really isn't that great
33-Jeff Clement-not really a catcher, bust so far
66-Kenji Johjima-does he even count as a prospect?

After 2006 we start running into guys(like Montero) that's still in the minors or are too early to tell.

Summary

25 total prospects

Guys that's no longer catcher (8)
Matt Lecroy, Jayson Werth, Brandon Inge, Josh Phelps, Justin Huber, Daric Barton, Neil Walker, Jeff Clement

Guys that worked out great (4)
Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, Russ Martin, Brian McCann

Guys that can help out a fantasy team, besides the elite guys (3)
John Buck, Dionner Navarro, Kelly Shoppach

The rest are busts except Ben Petrick, who is on his way to a pretty good career until Parkinson's took that from him. I'm ready to call Salty a bust, he's had plenty of chances and just didn't capitalize. Red Sox also aren't the greatest with reclamation projects lately...


I'm having a hard time finding
PlayingWithFire wrote:JD Closser? George Kottaras? Chris Ianetta? Taylor Teagarden?
in those lists.

Guys at other positions bust too. Do the same exercise for starting pitchers and what do you expect to find? I would also call guys like Werth & Walker successful regardless of what position they play.
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Re: 1st Year Prospect Draft - 3rd Pick - WHIR

Postby PlayingWithFire » Sat Feb 12, 2011 8:59 pm

Closser and Kottaras weren't top 100, Iannetta and Taylor Teagardens were on the 07 and 08 list. Other positions fail, sure. But Other position (let's say OF)'s "hits" usually combine for 50 HR and SB a year. A Catcher hit is basically a 25 HR guy with a good average.
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Re: 1st Year Prospect Draft - 3rd Pick - WHIR

Postby kab21 » Sat Feb 12, 2011 9:35 pm

The 3 Jays prospects aren't worth owning in a 10 team, 8 prospect league imo. D'Arnaud is decent but he really doesn't have much upside offensively (in fantasy). And I like Mesoraco and Norris much better.

I think the interesting part of the catcher bust discussion is that until Posey (and probably CSantana) came along recently the only catchers worth owning were also very good prospects. the last I checked you needed to start a catcher (or sometimes 2) every week and the only way your going to get a really good one is if you had him as a prospect or traded for him (at full value). I wouldn't invest a high pick in a catcher but I think this is an excellent place to take a chance. Especially with Mesoraco/Norris since you won't have to wait long to see if they are a bust or not. And with only 80 prospect keepers it will be easy to find another good prospect to replace them.
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Re: 1st Year Prospect Draft - 3rd Pick - WHIR

Postby Havok1517 » Sun Feb 13, 2011 1:39 am

I'm really sure who the bets prospects that are currently available but I'd select Mesoraco over Norris as I feel Norris might be a 1B rather than a C as a pro.
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Re: 1st Year Prospect Draft - 3rd Pick - WHIR

Postby Johnny Deuce » Sun Feb 13, 2011 2:26 pm

kab21 wrote:The 3 Jays prospects aren't worth owning in a 10 team, 8 prospect league imo. D'Arnaud is decent but he really doesn't have much upside offensively (in fantasy). And I like Mesoraco and Norris much better.

I think the interesting part of the catcher bust discussion is that until Posey (and probably CSantana) came along recently the only catchers worth owning were also very good prospects. the last I checked you needed to start a catcher (or sometimes 2) every week and the only way your going to get a really good one is if you had him as a prospect or traded for him (at full value). I wouldn't invest a high pick in a catcher but I think this is an excellent place to take a chance. Especially with Mesoraco/Norris since you won't have to wait long to see if they are a bust or not. And with only 80 prospect keepers it will be easy to find another good prospect to replace them.


Thanks for the info on the Jays prospects.

The next prospects picked after I grabbed Lamb were;

Wilin Rosario, C, COL
Dee Gordon, SS, LAD
Delvin Mesoraco, C, CIN
Jason Kipnis, 2B (CLE)
Danny Espinosa, 2B, WAS
Kyle Gibson, P, MIN
Zach Britton LHP Orioles
Chris Nelson SS COL
Danny Duffy, P, KC
Michael Taylor, OF, OAK
Jean Segura, 2B (LAA)
Ben Revere, OF, MIN
Zack Cox, 3B, STL
Nolan Arenado, 3B, COL
Derek Norris, C, WAS This was my pick
Nick Franklin, SS, SEA

As you can see, Mesoraco was already taken. I have two more picks.

I don't have as much background with prospects to give any solid input on the Great Catcher Debate but it seems to me much of this is a big crap shoot. It will be interesting to see how many of my eight prospects end up on my roster. Unless you are someone like Bryce Harper or Trout, or anyone in the top five nobody really knows if you are going to make it or not. So if I was doing a prospect draft again I would go for about 70% hitters, and 30% pitchers, and try to mix up the positions. Research is half the battle, but luck is also a big part of it.

Considering for my last two picks;
Christian Colon
Carlos Martinez
Ehire Adrianza
Edward Salcedo
Aaron Crow
Dayan Viciedo
Tyler Matzek
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