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Need a SS of the future

Postby triple3play » Tue Feb 08, 2011 8:59 pm

Please rank and add any future predictions/comps for the following SS. I will be needing a new stud in a few years. Profar, Segura, Hamilton
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Re: Need a SS of the future

Postby Havok1517 » Tue Feb 08, 2011 10:04 pm

Might I suggest Edward Salcedo to be added to your potential SS selection list.
http://scoutingthesally.com/scouting-re ... ta-braves/

Instead of predictions, which are hard to gauge without age, I'll give you some potential peak comps...

Grant Green = Cal Ripken, Jr.
Jurickson Profar = Starlin Castro (peak predicted)
Billy Hamilton = Edgar Renteria
Dee Gordon = Ozzie Smith (without the glove)
Edward Salcedo = Hanley Ramirez
Jean Segura = Orlando Cabrera
Last edited by Havok1517 on Wed Feb 09, 2011 1:04 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Need a SS of the future

Postby kab21 » Tue Feb 08, 2011 10:42 pm

I've heard nothing that suggests Salcedo will stay at SS and I think he's overrated because of his name and bonus. Profar is the guy to roll the dice with but he's risky.
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Re: Need a SS of the future

Postby Havok1517 » Wed Feb 09, 2011 12:25 am

kab21 wrote:I've heard nothing that suggests Salcedo will stay at SS and I think he's overrated because of his name and bonus. Profar is the guy to roll the dice with but he's risky.


You can't refute the tools. Ramirez is a horrible SS and on a good team would be playing 3B but Salcedo has a similar offensive potential imo.
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Re: Need a SS of the future

Postby kab21 » Wed Feb 09, 2011 2:06 am

Havok1517 wrote:
kab21 wrote:I've heard nothing that suggests Salcedo will stay at SS and I think he's overrated because of his name and bonus. Profar is the guy to roll the dice with but he's risky.


You can't refute the tools. Ramirez is a horrible SS and on a good team would be playing 3B but Salcedo has a similar offensive potential imo.


Great argument using an elite MLB'er as an argument that a toolsy latin player will stick at SS. :-? I think you're focusing more on his signing bonus than on the most recent lackluster scouting reports. He's not even ranking in the Braves top ten at most sites. And I would put him in the same category that Flores, Triunfel were in a few years ago. Toolsy but not expected to stay at SS and I want to see them hit before I get too excited.
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Re: Need a SS of the future

Postby Havok1517 » Wed Feb 09, 2011 4:17 am

kab21 wrote:
Havok1517 wrote:
kab21 wrote:I've heard nothing that suggests Salcedo will stay at SS and I think he's overrated because of his name and bonus. Profar is the guy to roll the dice with but he's risky.


You can't refute the tools. Ramirez is a horrible SS and on a good team would be playing 3B but Salcedo has a similar offensive potential imo.


Great argument using an elite MLB'er as an argument that a toolsy latin player will stick at SS. :-? I think you're focusing more on his signing bonus than on the most recent lackluster scouting reports. He's not even ranking in the Braves top ten at most sites. And I would put him in the same category that Flores, Triunfel were in a few years ago. Toolsy but not expected to stay at SS and I want to see them hit before I get too excited.


I really don't care much about signing bonuses to be honest. Salcedo passes the eyeball test and has the tools to be an impact player. While, I'm not disagreeing with you that he could move over to 3B in the future, I'd wager he could be as good or better than someone like Ramirez at SS in the majors. While Triunfel has likely crashed and burned, 2011 will be his make or break, I still really like Flores as a prospect.
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Re: Need a SS of the future

Postby mblax10 » Wed Feb 09, 2011 9:40 am

Havok1517 wrote:Might I suggest Edward Salcedo to be added to your potential SS selection list.
http://scoutingthesally.com/scouting-re ... ta-braves/

Instead of predictions, which are hard to gauge without age, I'll give you some potential peak comps...

Grant Green = Cal Ripken, Jr.
Jurickson Profar = Starlin Castro (peak predicted)
Billy Hamilton = Edgar Renteria
Dee Gordon = Ozzie Smith (without the glove)
Edward Salcedo = Hanley Ramirez
Jean Segura = Orlando Cabrera


This is a great example of why MLB comps are such a bad idea. Ripken, Ozzie & Hanley are once in a generation or longer talents. There's less than 1% chance that any 3 guys currently in the minors match their peeks.

Hamilton probably doesn't have the arm to stay at SS. The Renteria comp is also pretty weak. If Hamilton makes the majors, he'll pass Renteria's best SB total in his first full season.

I'm also agree with Salcedo being vastly overrated here. He's not even the most exciting SS in the Braves organization.
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Re: Need a SS of the future

Postby cardinal1975 » Wed Feb 09, 2011 1:06 pm

mblax10 wrote:
Havok1517 wrote:Might I suggest Edward Salcedo to be added to your potential SS selection list.
http://scoutingthesally.com/scouting-re ... ta-braves/

Instead of predictions, which are hard to gauge without age, I'll give you some potential peak comps...

Grant Green = Cal Ripken, Jr.
Jurickson Profar = Starlin Castro (peak predicted)
Billy Hamilton = Edgar Renteria
Dee Gordon = Ozzie Smith (without the glove)
Edward Salcedo = Hanley Ramirez
Jean Segura = Orlando Cabrera


This is a great example of why MLB comps are such a bad idea. Ripken, Ozzie & Hanley are once in a generation or longer talents. There's less than 1% chance that any 3 guys currently in the minors match their peeks.

Hamilton probably doesn't have the arm to stay at SS. The Renteria comp is also pretty weak. If Hamilton makes the majors, he'll pass Renteria's best SB total in his first full season.

I'm also agree with Salcedo being vastly overrated here. He's not even the most exciting SS in the Braves organization.


I agree that placing these types of comps are ridiculous at best and I respect Havok's opinions but the names being tossed about are just not very likely for most if any to attain.

That being said Salcedo is not Hanley. Hanley had elite level speed while scouts grade Salcedo as average at best. Hanley has been a butcher at SS but has gotten better over the years but to compare any prospect with an MVP caliber hitter seems unrealistic let alone a 19 year old kid that does have good tools but lacks a lot of baseball skills right now. Will he get better? Probably....but there have been a ton of prospects that pass "an eyeball test" including Brandon Wood, Andy Marte, Joel Guzman (....need we go on?) that never make a mark in the majors.

I think it's also unlikely to expect a 19 year old with average speed right now to not outgrow shortstop down the road. This was a shortstop of the future question so I believe we should be looking at prospects that at least appear to have a good shot of sticking at SS.

Like others have said Hamilton has serious questions about his arm and the Renteria comp doesn't make much sense as Hamilton likely never hits more than 10 homeruns at best but should steal 50 plus bases given the chance.

Comparing Profar to Castro seems odd just because we are not exactly sure what Castro will become. We have an idea but his power may not show up down the road...hard to say really when comparing an 18 year old to a 21 year old and talking about primes.

I understand if you really believe in Salcedo's tools as they are good but like Villalona's power or any other import we really need to see some production before lift them up to Hanley comparisons let alone any other all star. Just remember.....there are way more prospects that fail to live up to their potential than prospects that maximize their natural abilities. ;-)
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Re: Need a SS of the future

Postby Havok1517 » Wed Feb 09, 2011 3:36 pm

I don't feel that placing peak comps is all that crazy. They are best case senarios. It isn't anymore crazy than trying to predict stats for a player. What stats should I predict? Rookie year stats? 3 year averages? Peak stats? Career stats? Now, that would be hard.
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Re: Need a SS of the future

Postby cardinal1975 » Wed Feb 09, 2011 4:35 pm

Havok1517 wrote:I don't feel that placing peak comps is all that crazy. They are best case senarios. It isn't anymore crazy than trying to predict stats for a player. What stats should I predict? Rookie year stats? 3 year averages? Peak stats? Career stats? Now, that would be hard.


I think putting a comp out there of a .300 plus hitting shortstop with 30-30 potential every year (Hanley) seems a bit lofty for a 19 year old with average speed and a k rate over 25%. Or remembering Cal Ripken won 2 MVP's while hitting 30 hr's (one of the seasons) and over .300 (both years) seems a bit lofty for a shaky defensive shortstop that has not made it to Double A yet in Grant Green. We should remember Green played 3 years in college and is the same age last year that Ripken was the year he won his first MVP. Is that really a good comp for either player?

Instead of listing players that are nearly unrealistic to attain why not list somethig along the lines of .270ish hitter with 15-20hr, 25-30ish steal potential? Why compare guys to hall of famers? I also would think you might want the comp to be close to the actual players skills which is why people were up in arms when your comp to Salcedo is Hanley or Hamilton to Renteria (people forget how good he was) or the Profar to Castro when nobody is completely sure what Castro will be in a few years.

You obviously know your prospects however I think instead of putting comps on them why not project their stats how you see them while factoring in the liklihood they even remain at the position and their tools. I would hate to think someone that knows very little of prospects is expecting Salcedo to steal 30-50 bases at any point in his career when his tools suggest that it's likely unattainable.
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