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Jose Reyes 2011 SBs

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Jose Reyes 2011 SBs

Postby Doc19 » Sun Feb 06, 2011 9:25 pm

Since this category is what either makes him an elite fantasy player or an above average one, I was wondering what everyone thought about his speed this year, in a contract year and with a new manager... Several projections I have seen only have him stealing 30 or so bags, and I think that this seems low considering he is now 2 years removed from the injury.

I'll be bold and say he steals 50 bags, and will be a bargain in round 2 as a SS...

Thoughts?
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Re: Jose Reyes 2011 SBs

Postby MTUCache » Sun Feb 06, 2011 9:39 pm

Doc19 wrote:... and will be a bargain in round 2 as a SS...

I sincerely hope you're talking about a 14-team league here, or bigger... because there's no way Reyes needs to be going in the second round of a 10- or 12- team league.

Personally I can see him going for 25 SB in 300ABs, or blowing up for 60 in 600ABs... but with him batting .280, hitting less than 10HR, and having less than 60 RBIs even if he does play a full season, neither one of them helps all that much. Reyes is a player who's value has taken a HUGE hit in the last couple of years by the abundance of speed later in the draft and other positions becoming just as thin as SS (3B/OF).
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Re: Jose Reyes 2011 SBs

Postby Doc19 » Sun Feb 06, 2011 11:21 pm

According to Rookies and Creams latest MDP data Reyes going around 26, which in a standard 12-team mixed league puts him beginning round 3.

Your point about speed later in the draft and scarcity that matches 3B and OF is well taken, but it looks like if you are high on Reyes than you may have to grab him late round 2 to early round 3. It appears perhaps I was higher on Reyes than others?
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Re: Jose Reyes 2011 SBs

Postby CBMGreatOne » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:10 am

Reyes has a ton of upside and could steal 60 bases, but I think the downside is really scary. Maybe he gets hurt and plays 100 games or less. Maybe he battles nagging injuries that sap his speed. If everything goes right, I could see him returning round 3 value for sure, but I wouldn't touch him until round 4 in a 12 team league and even then I'm not so sure.
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Re: Jose Reyes 2011 SBs

Postby lastingsgriller » Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:13 pm

I am happily keeping him as one of my 4 keepers in a 12-team league. that 60 sb potential is so huge. the teams who have tulo and hanley are the only others that can get you any real value from SS... and if Reyes can run he also provides value. If you can get big steals from SS, those OF spots can be reserved for players that can hit and not Juan Pierre.

I see him as..
.285, 10 HR, 75 rbi, 100 r, 42 SB.

thats a pretty drool-worthy line when you compare to someone like Ian Desmond.
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Re: Jose Reyes 2011 SBs

Postby pat1999 » Tue Feb 08, 2011 5:26 pm

With his injury history t it's almost impossible to peg him for 50+ SB's. If he plays all year I think 50-60 is very realistic. Problem is that him playing healthy all year is very unrealistic. My guess is he misses a good chunk and ends up with a total near 35.
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Re: Jose Reyes 2011 SBs

Postby Fenris-77 » Tue Feb 08, 2011 8:22 pm

Part of the appeal with Reyes obviously stems from positional scarcity. Sure, there's an injury history there, and even barring something major he could still be hit and miss for total ABs too far north of 600, but he still represents a substantial value upgrade over possible replacements. It's the same arguement that has some guys slotting Hanley in at #1 really.

If he gets to 600 ABs I think he'll post 50 SB, or thereabouts. If he can get close to 100 runs, 15HRs, and 60+ RBIs then he'll look pretty sweet in the 3rd round. None of those numbers are out of sight if he can duck a major injury (minor injuries are part oif the package there of :-D ).
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