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Brett Anderson in 2011

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Brett Anderson in 2011

Postby RunReyesRun » Sat Feb 05, 2011 8:08 pm

What do you think of him for 2011? To me, he is one of the more intriguing SP's to draft this year.

PROs: Love his GB rate and K/BB ratio. Also doesn't have a pattern of arm problems despite last season's injury - and he finished 2010 pretty strong.

CONs: The obvious elbow/forearm injury, and his K rate could be a bit higher.

If healthy, I think he can be a top 10 SP this year - but young SPs with an elbow/forearm injury scare me. Thoughts?
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Re: Brett Anderson in 2011

Postby dooz » Sat Feb 05, 2011 8:34 pm

RunReyesRun wrote:What do you think of him for 2011? To me, he is one of the more intriguing SP's to draft this year.

PROs: Love his GB rate and K/BB ratio. Also doesn't have a pattern of arm problems despite last season's injury - and he finished 2010 pretty strong.

CONs: The obvious elbow/forearm injury, and his K rate could be a bit higher.

If healthy, I think he can be a top 10 SP this year - but young SPs with an elbow/forearm injury scare me. Thoughts?


His ceiling is enormous imo. For a lefty to have a low-mid 90s fastball combined with that kind of control leads me to believe he can post k/9 rates north of 7, and maybe even 8 as he develops further. Let's keep in mind he'd probably just be earning a full-time gig on some teams.

In a re-draft, however, you have to temper expectations, especially in a standard format.
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Re: Brett Anderson in 2011

Postby B-Chad » Sat Feb 05, 2011 9:02 pm

Well, my love for Anderson can be found on the homepage in the 2 Up 2 Down Starting Pitcher article. In short, he's a value where he's getting drafted, because the risk is fairly minimal and the reward is potentially very large.
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Re: Brett Anderson in 2011

Postby kab21 » Sat Feb 05, 2011 9:10 pm

B-Chad wrote:Well, my love for Anderson can be found on the homepage in the 2 Up 2 Down Starting Pitcher article. In short, he's a value where he's getting drafted, because the risk is fairly minimal and the reward is potentially very large.


The risk is not minimal. TJ wipes out his entire season. but he's definitely a very good mid round gamble.
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Re: Brett Anderson in 2011

Postby B-Chad » Sat Feb 05, 2011 9:20 pm

kab21 wrote:
B-Chad wrote:Well, my love for Anderson can be found on the homepage in the 2 Up 2 Down Starting Pitcher article. In short, he's a value where he's getting drafted, because the risk is fairly minimal and the reward is potentially very large.


The risk is not minimal. TJ wipes out his entire season. but he's definitely a very good mid round gamble.


I worded that poorly, in that the risk in terms of injury he'd suffer isn't minimal, but the pick spent on him would be a relatively minimal investment. Semantics aside, considering the inherent risk of injury that comes with drafting a young pitcher, I'd be more than willing to gamble on Anderson's health for the upside he possesses.
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Re: Brett Anderson in 2011

Postby RunReyesRun » Sat Feb 05, 2011 9:53 pm

B-Chad wrote:Well, my love for Anderson can be found on the homepage in the 2 Up 2 Down Starting Pitcher article. In short, he's a value where he's getting drafted, because the risk is fairly minimal and the reward is potentially very large.


Great article, B-Chad. Would've helped if I read the 2U2D before positing :-)

I think you hit the nail on the head in terms of strengths and risks for BA. I am more willing to take a chance on him after watching come back successfully from that elbow injury last year.
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Re: Brett Anderson in 2011

Postby kab21 » Sat Feb 05, 2011 11:30 pm

B-Chad wrote:
I worded that poorly, in that the risk in terms of injury he'd suffer isn't minimal, but the pick spent on him would be a relatively minimal investment. Semantics aside, considering the inherent risk of injury that comes with drafting a young pitcher, I'd be more than willing to gamble on Anderson's health for the upside he possesses.


For me a recent comparison is Ervin Santana. I loved him in the 2009 draft and avoided him at all costs in 2010 draft. He showed that he could stay healthy and had a nice season in 2010. But he's an example that stayed healthy. There have been so many pitchers that went the rest and rehab route only to still have TJ. But Anderson did pitch effectively at the end of last season which should give a small amount of confidence.
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Re: Brett Anderson in 2011

Postby OldEnglishZ » Sun Feb 06, 2011 11:00 am

He has top 5 pitcher potential, if he can ever get there. His ceiling is great but I owned him last year and it was a headache. The potential is too good to pass up in the rounds he is being drafted in, I plan on taking a chance on him for the right price/round.
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Re: Brett Anderson in 2011

Postby J.C.Fighter » Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:14 am

I'm worried at his slider usage. He throws that pitch way too much...
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Re: Brett Anderson in 2011

Postby Bloody Sox » Mon Feb 07, 2011 8:40 am

J.C.Fighter wrote:I'm worried at his slider usage. He throws that pitch way too much...

Yup... I recall that last year, Razzball listed him as the #1 pitching risk based on how often he throws the slider. I ignored that warning, and sure enough he was out for 3 months. He did pitch well the final 6 weeks, and his upside is enormous, but its a risk.
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