Dynasty Draft Uncertainty

[bujfan2030]

m doing a dynasty league for the first time this year(Non salary, No FA bidding). Slow message board snake draft, 20 teams. Rostering 25 + 5 minor league slots(Drafting all together in initial draft) 13cat(OBP, Holds, QS, K/9 instead of Strikeouts) So far we've completed six rounds. I'm guessing about half the league is new to this format, and thus far youth seems to be going at a premium. So I guess I'm wondering what's the best mix of upside/proven player to be drafting.
My first six picks
Ryan Zimmerman
Adam Wainwright
Brandon Phillips
Alex Rios
Jeremy Hellickson
Starlin Castro
I'm comfortable with the Hellickson pick at 92, but when I took Castro at 108, Derek Jeter was still on the board. That just felt wrong even with Jeter's age and Down year. Most rankings you see are for redraft leagues, or for Dynasty players under age 25. It's tough finding composite rankings that take into account dynasty drafts. What's the best way to decide if you're drafting upside too early. You can see the full draft here http://20teamdynasty-fate.proboards.com ... happenings. (8 position players, 1 util, 9 pitchers, 7 bench) Seriously considering Mike Trout with my next pick. Somebody please provide some perspective before I draft the top 100 prospects

[HOOTIE]

I would draft the best player available. Too early for a guy like Trout. If i did go that route, i take Harper myself.

[skmo2345]

I've been enjoying following your draft the past few days. I'm really surprised that Trout and Harper are still available, given the emphasis on youth. But like Hootie said, you should draft the BPA and try to win now. I might would put a greater emphasis on youth and upside, but you can't go wrong with the BPA. Make a huge list and divide it into tiers. That would help a ton.

[KSig24]

Hey man, congrats on the league. I love Dynasty leagues and being a pro scout I have a lot of insight for you. Draft BPA, but when the pool gets more broad go for the top talent. Fill your spots to win now and take chances at players who will be the next top crop of prospects. Guys you can hold onto or deal.

Target Players like Manny Machado SS who could be the next great thing. May take awhile, but may well be worth the wait. Taillon could be the next Texas fireballer to be an Ace, Ace is not used lightly. Montero's bat will carry him and as soon as this season.

What are you looking for in a prospect?

Help with mine? viewtopic.php?t=421464

[Remotethumb]

I'm in my 11th year of a "keeper" league, and when I stopped trying to always find the next big thing is when I started winning the league. After about the 6th season (I had always finished in the middle to bottom of the standings) it seemed the league might breakup because of life (kids, jobs) I was ticked off, I had a team full of young, good players I had been building over the years.

Anyway, I just started trading my youth and drafted to win right away. And I won the dang thing.

It's fun to build for the future, and there's a time in the draft for youth. In fact, if I am torn between 2 similiarly-tiered players at ANY POINT in the draft, youth is always taken into consideration as a sort of "tie-breaker." But only to a point. When I started putting more emphasis on drafting proven players (3 year averages), I started winning more.

I know all this is elementary fantasy 101 but there you go.

p.s. Now to totally contradict everything I just said, sometimes you gotta roll the dice on "once in a decade" type hype (like Heyward, baby Bryce, etc.) But ask me how I feel about taking Strasburg with a way-too-high pick last year (I'm not gonna say which pick, I'm too embarrassed) So if you're gonna gamble on kids I would wait on the pitchers

[Montana168]

Have to agree with the above statement, you draft BPA and play to win now. Having a youthful team filled with prospects looks great on paper, but usually those players go out and struggle for a few years before they come the true studs that they are. There still are exceptions, braun/longoria, but they are just that, exceptions, not the norm. So while you may think your team looks sexy with all those harper, tallion, trout type players, guys that draft jeter, aram, ibanez when he first came to the phils will be winning. Sure patience will pay off with some of those guys, but the reality is, all top prospects don't work out. So you could have the top 5 prospects, and odds are that only 1 or 2 will become true studs.

In summary, draft BPA, if there is a tie between who you like more, go with the younger guy. But as you said, taking castro over jeter was simply a mistake IMO. Same with the hellickson pick depending on who else you passed up. I do like your top 3 picks, although taking a SP in the 2nd in a dynasty is risky, but its the past so no point on focusing on that.