At the risk of sounding like a complete dunderhead:
After playing fantasy baseball for more than twelve years, and drafting using the help of magazines and online resources for most of that time, this year I bought Ron Shandler's 2011 Baseball Forecaster for the very first time. Lots of interesting stuff in the book, but I have to admit that I find all the numbers, graphs and statistics overwhelming.
Is there anyone out there who is familiar with Shandler's work that can give me good advice on how to whittle down all of this info into something that I can effectively use to prepare for my draft? What should I pay the most attention to?
In my experience, Forecaster can screw you or really help you find sleepers. I've used the Forecaster for the last 4 years and have won my league the last 3 years. All thanks to the Forecaster? No. Not really. Forecaster is the only time that I can honestly say that 'I like it for the articles'. Using bits and pieces of the different systems he discusses like LIMA, Mayberry, and the others I find to be good food for thought. I think that all of these strategies alone, would kill me in my league. The trends in a players skills is what I find most beneficial. For hitters: CT%, Eye%, PX, and distance between Avg and xBA. This helps me in deciding who to avoid and who to target late in a draft. For Pitchers: same thing really. DOM, Control, ERA and xERA. He points out, most of the time, the guys who are showing the signs of these gains from year to year, or from his 1st half to 2nd half of the season. Some times you have to see a players improvements yourself. I use all of these aspects to slide players up or down my draft day rankings. It helps me make a Target and Avoid list. Then I use that with all the incredible information you find here at the Cafe. I can honestly say that the Cafe has been most beneficial to the 3 Championships. If you use the systems, or the Foracster as a Draft Guide.. I think you could be screwed. Just look at a recent post about Shandlers Mock Draft team for CBS. That shows you what your team may look like if you follow Shandler strategies to the tee.
Thats my opinion. I love the read. I love the stats and attributes nicely organized. Hope this is helpful..
Forecaster+2 magazines+Hours on the Cafe+Rooks ADP spreadsheet=excellent preperation for a championship
I basically get the book for help with my pitching. Number one, I stay away from any pitcher with a low BPV (no matter how good his stats were the previous year) and all my late round pitchers are young guys that haven't had a lot of success yet but have a high BPV rating, I've hit on several young break out pitchers that way that helped my teams a lot. Also, looking at pitchers that had a really bad year last year the xERA stat can help you find some value. If a lot of people are down on a guy because of the bad season but the xERA shows it was "flooky" (combined with a solid BPV, Dom, or Com) you can get him at a low price on a likely rebound year. Finally, if the xERA and BPV are trending down (three straight years of going down) I wouldn't touch the guy with a ten foot pole. I'm in a really deep league (17 bench spots) so I always grab a couple really high BPV and Dom young RP hoping to maybe hit on break out closer.