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Pick last keeper...NEW KEEPERS ADDED 2/6!! WHIR ASAP!!

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Re: Pick last keeper... Chapman, Beckham, Papelbon WHIR ASAP!!

Postby oddmanout7 » Sat Feb 05, 2011 4:07 pm

I would look to get Beckham back in the draft. He is an interesting player, but I am not sure what to expect from him.

Papelbon is a closer on a top team, so he will get saves. I think he is either dealt, or overtaken by Bard by the end of the season though.

Chapman is interesting. I see 100Ks and good ratios from him in the bullpen, with even an outside shot at closing. I think he is destined for the rotation, and he could be elite if he can work on a few things.

Out of the 3, I think Paps will have the highest value for this season. The future is a toss up between Beckham and Chapman. I lean towards Chapman because a young lefty hitting triple digits is a great thing.

So in short, Paps for this season, Chapman for the future. Hope that helps.
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Re: Pick last keeper... Chapman, Beckham, Papelbon WHIR ASAP!!

Postby wkpdpack » Sat Feb 05, 2011 6:52 pm

It's not often I say to keep a closer, since they and catchers are hardly ever recommended to be kept. But with the options you have I think Papelbon has the best keeper value.

Please help with my post viewtopic.php?t=421452
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Re: Pick last keeper... Chapman, Beckham, Papelbon WHIR ASAP!!

Postby Halo Homers » Sat Feb 05, 2011 8:03 pm

I would take Beckham, but Chapman is tempting.
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Re: Pick last keeper... Chapman, Beckham, Papelbon WHIR ASAP!!

Postby nyy28 » Sat Feb 05, 2011 9:16 pm

oddmanout7 wrote:I would look to get Beckham back in the draft.


I don't understand this - to get him back in the draft it would cost a pretty early draft pick which would definitely be better spent on a SP. Why not keep Beckham and draft a SP in that spot? Keeping a closer in a non-dynasty league is just a bad move - especially one who will probably be closing for a crappy team by the end of the summer. Keep Beckham, draft SPs early, and pick up your closers later in the draft. Don't overpay for saves.
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Re: Pick last keeper... Chapman, Beckham, Papelbon WHIR ASAP!!

Postby kab21 » Sat Feb 05, 2011 9:34 pm

oddmanout7 wrote:Papelbon is a closer on a top team, so he will get saves. I think he is either dealt, or overtaken by Bard by the end of the season though.


I think this is completely untrue. Papelbon didn't lose any of his stuff last year he just wasn't very clutch. And anyone that is smart knows that doesn't exist and is just bad luck (a terrible LOB%). The Red Sox aren't trading their expensive closer during pennant chase since any team that would want him is also in a pennant chase and wouldn't part with MLB players to get him. And even IF Bard was that much better (which I don't think he is) switching the 8th and 9th inning role is not going to make a big difference. And MLB teams have a long history of sticking with an inferior closer (compared to the setup man).
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Re: Pick last keeper... Chapman, Beckham, Papelbon WHIR ASAP!!

Postby oddmanout7 » Sun Feb 06, 2011 12:21 am

nyy28 wrote:
oddmanout7 wrote:I would look to get Beckham back in the draft.


I don't understand this - to get him back in the draft it would cost a pretty early draft pick which would definitely be better spent on a SP. Why not keep Beckham and draft a SP in that spot? Keeping a closer in a non-dynasty league is just a bad move - especially one who will probably be closing for a crappy team by the end of the summer. Keep Beckham, draft SPs early, and pick up your closers later in the draft. Don't overpay for saves.


Well I just don't really like keeping a guy who may put up 15/15. That would be an ok line, but he already has a 2B.

I advised keeping Chapman over everyone else. I would draft position players before SP, but that's just me. I like to build a rotation out of later round picks. Too much variation over the years with pitchers, especially with the top ones likely already locked up.
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Re: Pick last keeper... Chapman, Beckham, Papelbon WHIR ASAP!!

Postby oddmanout7 » Sun Feb 06, 2011 12:35 am

kab21 wrote:
oddmanout7 wrote:Papelbon is a closer on a top team, so he will get saves. I think he is either dealt, or overtaken by Bard by the end of the season though.


I think this is completely untrue. Papelbon didn't lose any of his stuff last year he just wasn't very clutch. And anyone that is smart knows that doesn't exist and is just bad luck (a terrible LOB%). The Red Sox aren't trading their expensive closer during pennant chase since any team that would want him is also in a pennant chase and wouldn't part with MLB players to get him. And even IF Bard was that much better (which I don't think he is) switching the 8th and 9th inning role is not going to make a big difference. And MLB teams have a long history of sticking with an inferior closer (compared to the setup man).


His fastball was still the same velocity, but there are a lot of mistakes in your analysis.

LOB%
2008 69.5%
2009 89.3%
2010 68.7%

Now which is the outlier? The league average is around 71%, so back luck is a false statement. His HR/FB increased in 2010, but that is not the stat you cited.

xFIP
2008 2.38
2009 3.98
2010 3.72

BB/9
2008 1.04
2009 3.18
2010 3.76

BABIP
2008 .293
2009 .278
2010 .287


As for your statement about not dealing him. Also incorrect.

The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo reports that the Red Sox are willing to deal Jonathan Papelbon during spring training or the season, no matter where they sit in the standings.
The Sox this offseason discussed a deal involving Papelbon with both the White Sox and A's but were unable to unload him. They'd love to get out from under his $12 million salary for 2011 with Daniel Bard or Bobby Jenks both fully capable of handling the closer role. It's going to be hard for them to find a taker, though, so bet on Papelbon finishing the season in Beantown before departing in free agency.


Now perhaps Jenks (closing experience) will win out over Bard the young flamethrower. I think they will hand the reins over to the young guy to let him prove himself before the season is done. Paps is as good as gone at the end of the season, or by some team hungry for RP in the middle of the season.
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Re: Pick last keeper... Chapman, Beckham, Papelbon WHIR ASAP!!

Postby oddmanout7 » Sun Feb 06, 2011 12:49 am

Despite our disagreements, I think it boils down to this:

Beckham
Here is a good article about the guy.
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/which-gordon-beckham-will-show-up-in-2011/

For what its worth Bill James (typically loves young guys) projects:
.273/.343/.436 15HR 6SB 81R 77RBI

Chapman
Nice article from last year about him.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/but-is-chapman-valuable-in-the-bullpen/

Destined for RP for 2011 at least, should get 100Ks with decent ratios and maybe a handful of saves.


Papelbon
Nice article.
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/bobby-jenks-and-the-boston-bullpen/

He will close. He will be good, but I don't think stellar. He could be traded or he could leave via free agency. Most will likely predict that he closes somewhere else, but that may not be the case (see Jenks for an example).

So again, I think Paps will have the most value this season. I think Chapman will have the most over time. I see him as a top 10-15 SP in the making. but that is my own opinion, and I have nothing more to back it up. The OP has gotten many different responses, each with support for a different keeper. he has a difficult choice, and it was nice to discuss. Good luck.
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Re: Pick last keeper... Chapman, Beckham, Papelbon WHIR ASAP!!

Postby nyy28 » Sun Feb 06, 2011 1:33 am

oddmanout7 wrote:
nyy28 wrote:
oddmanout7 wrote:I would look to get Beckham back in the draft.


I don't understand this - to get him back in the draft it would cost a pretty early draft pick which would definitely be better spent on a SP. Why not keep Beckham and draft a SP in that spot? Keeping a closer in a non-dynasty league is just a bad move - especially one who will probably be closing for a crappy team by the end of the summer. Keep Beckham, draft SPs early, and pick up your closers later in the draft. Don't overpay for saves.


Well I just don't really like keeping a guy who may put up 15/15. That would be an ok line, but he already has a 2B.

I advised keeping Chapman over everyone else. I would draft position players before SP, but that's just me. I like to build a rotation out of later round picks. Too much variation over the years with pitchers, especially with the top ones likely already locked up.


Agreed about always going after position players before SP, but in an 8 keeper league where 0/8 keepers are SPs, I think you would have to take some SPs earlier. And yes he already has a 2B, but he still needs someone for the IF/Util position. Keeping Chapman is not a bad move since he is eventually destined for the starting rotation (as long as the owner is willing to wait a year, or hopefully less), but keeping a closer over Beckham when you have vacancies at the IF/Util spots doesnt seem like a smart decision.
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Re: Pick last keeper... Chapman, Beckham, Papelbon WHIR ASAP!!

Postby kab21 » Sun Feb 06, 2011 2:32 am

So many mistakes in your analysis. My notes in bold.

they can try to trade him now but I doubt they are going to downgrade their bullpen during a playoff run to add prospects. And even if he was traded he would be the closer for any team willing to pay that price (prospects and money). And I still don't see how Bard is a better pitcher (other than his lower cost which will have Paps looking for a new team in '12).


oddmanout7 wrote:His fastball was still the same velocity, but there are a lot of mistakes in your analysis.

LOB%
2005 88.6%
2006 92.4%
2007 88.1%

2008 69.5%
2009 89.3%
2010 68.7%

Now which is the outlier? The league average is around 71%, so back luck is a false statement. His HR/FB increased in 2010, but that is not the stat you cited.

xFIP
2008 2.38
2009 3.98
2010 3.72

Career xFIP 3.32 - Career ERA 2.22 = 1.10 difference
For some reason there are a number of RP'ers that defy xFIP. Many of the elite RP'ers are included in that group that defies xFIP.
FWIW- Bard's xFIP is 3.59. Are you suggesting that he isn't very good?


BB/9
2008 1.04
2009 3.18
2010 3.76

BB/9 is up recently but 2008 was a career low. And more importantly his K/9 is the same as his career rate. And he has a 2.75:1 K:BB ratio. Similar to Bard's 2.5 K:BB ratio

BABIP
2008 .293
2009 .278
2010 .287

LOB% was the big luck indicator that was out of whack in '10. BAPIP is normal.

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