I noticed that he went in the 7th and 8th rounds in the mocks going right now and I'm a little surprised. He's 2010 season screams anomaly to me. He had the highest BAIBP and K% of his career. His HR/FB was 19.5% above his career average and the highest since his 2005 season. He turns 35 in March. I'm expecting more of the 2009 Konerko instead of the 2010 Konerko. What am I missing here?
Nothing. I'm with you on this one. If you drafted Konerko last year you hit the jackpot because I just don't see a repeat happening. He should still post decent numbers simply because of his home park but for where he's going in drafts I'm staying far away.
Anyone going in with him as a starting 1B should only be doing so in later rounds. He is the same age as Derrek Lee and Lance Berkman, so a little age speculation might show that despite a good year he'll likely not pull a Barry Bonds and get better with age. As a CI he's solid, but there are more wiser choices at 1B out there.
I was looking at Konerko and according to rotochamp he had an xBA of .287 last year, so he was really lucky. Looking at his dismal 2008 he had an xBA of .286 and only hit .240!!
I think 30 HRs is totally realistic and the White Sox have a pretty decent lineup so his counting numbers should be good. .285/30/100 isn't too shabby, but somebody in your league will probably overpay for his stats last year. Still, if he drops low enough he could be good value. Agree he is better to target as your CI.
Konerko is like the 11th-12th 1B off the board, around 7th-8th round. He won't be a top 10 guy next year but he will always have pop and if you waited that long to get a 1B, you might as well shoot for the moon on a guy who can provide the first round production at 1B you passed up for other needs.
Konerko is like the 11th-12th 1B off the board, around 7th-8th round. He won't be a top 10 guy next year but he will always have pop and if you waited that long to get a 1B, you might as well shoot for the moon on a guy who can provide the first round production at 1B you passed up for other needs.
.270/32/105 IMO. He'll be like Kendry Morales minus .015 points in AVG and more downside, which is about the value of a four-round discount.
I'm a big Konerko guy and have thought he was underrated the past few years for the power he brings you. But come on, last year was an anomaly. If you take 7th-8th round guys based solely on potential, there's a lot of young guys with as good of or better chance to put up better numbers than him.
In seasons he started since he turned 30 he's hit 31, 22, 28, 29 HRs (in that order). I don't see how you can call 32 HRs any sort of baseline projection. The arithmetic average of those is 27.5, and there's no reason to state his 2009 season was from some type of hitting improvement from Konerko. It was lucky. He's still an upper 20's HR guy with decent counting stats (the ave from those same years is 73.5 runs and 87.8 RBI) and average (.273) that doesn't run. A 75/28/90/1/.275 line is about the best you can honestly expect from the guy at this point in his career. He's a late-teens pick with power and anything else you get or got from him was gravy.
Unless his draft spot falls significantly, this will be the first year in a long while that I won't own Paul in any of my leagues.
hot4tx wrote:In seasons he started since he turned 30 he's hit 31, 22, 28, 29 HRs (in that order). I don't see how you can call 32 HRs any sort of baseline projection. The arithmetic average of those is 27.5
On my planet that was 31,22,28,39 for an average of 30 hrs per year.
If you want to argue the 39 hrs is an anomaly you can also argue the 22 hrs was too. Only one season under 28hrs in the last 7, career AB is .280. IMO 28/.275 is a reasonable baseline with a decent chance to improve on those numbers.
That was me in the Cafeholics mock with a bunch of 1b already off the board
1.01 Albert Pujols, STL 1.03 Miguel Cabrera, DET 1.04 Joey Votto, CIN 1.10 Adrian Gonzalez, BOS 1.11 Mark Teixeira, NYY 2.07 Ryan Howard, PHI 2.11 Prince Fielder, MIL 2.12 Kevin Youkilis, BOS 4.04 Justin Morneau, MIN 4.05 Adam Dunn, CWS 5.03 Victor Martinez, DET 5.08 Kendry Morales, LAA 5.10 Buster Posey, SF 7.07 Paul Konerko, CWS I'll take 75/25/80/.275 and be happy I'm not stuck w/Butler 9.01 Billy Butler, KC
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by Pogotheostrich » Thu Feb 03, 2011 4:14 pm 
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