Jackson steal 40?

[skjelstrom]

mlb.com had an article stating how Austin Jackson's goal this season is to swipe 40 bags. I was never a believer in him last season and I wasn't about to believe now. I expect his avg to come down a good .2 or .3 as he got pretty luck last year. I'm not sure he'll steal more than 25 this season, but what do you guys think? Is Jackson setting a reasonable goal for himself?

[Fenris-77]

I don't see it. His SB% was already 82%, and his ABs aren't going to go up from 618 enough to matter. Unless he gets the green light to run a whole lot more this year I don't see him getting to 40. There are a lot of solid STL guys out there too, and I wouldn't count on Austin except as a last ditch attempt to shore up a weak cat. There are better and more reliable STL options available at a decent discount in pretty much every draft anyway. He's not bad as a late round flier, but I wouldn't get my hopes up.

Given his BAbip (near .400) I'd expect his average to sink too.

[Skin Blues]

I usually put very little attention to claims like this from players. I remember Adam Dunn saying something similar a while back... yeah, definitely didn't come through. A coach saying it is another thing, like whats-his-name in San Diego last year, I believe.

[AquaMan2342]

Leyland doesn't run enough. He won't steal 40 bases.

[MasterX1918]

He needs to get on base more first

[Dan Lambskin]

Leyland doesn't run enough. He won't steal 40 bases.

[spydog]

Chris Johnson said he was going to run for 2500 yards and he burned me. Not falling for the 40 steal thing.

[MTUCache]

Leyland doesn't run enough. He won't steal 40 bases.

Quoted again for emphasis.

The Tigers have been abysmal at running the bases for quite a few years now (no numbers to back this up off the top of my head, just watched way too many games with only solo-HRs on the scoreboard).

Granderson was supposed to have the same opportunity, skill-set, reputation, etc... he stole 8, 26, 12, and 20 in his four years leading off in Detroit. Jackson may be faster, younger, and have a better average (for now), but there's no way he's even has 40 attempts this season, let alone SBs.