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Fantasy Baseball - It's Out of (Your) Control!

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Re: Fantasy Baseball - It's Out of (Your) Control!

Postby Ballpark Frank » Wed Feb 02, 2011 10:37 am

I often tell the die-hard guys in my fantasy football league that whine constantly about poor luck, that they ought to give fantasy baseball a try just because the cream typically rises to the top when all is said and done. The past 3 years in my H2H 20 team keeper league, the fantasy finals have consisted of the #1 vs #2, #1 vs #3 and #1 vs #2 seeded teams from the regular season. In all 3 cases, the #1 ranked team from the regular season won the league. Perhaps my league is the exception, but I think a good and dedicated fantasy owner gets rewarded much more handsomely in baseball than football.
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Re: Fantasy Baseball - It's Out of (Your) Control!

Postby shawngee03 » Wed Feb 02, 2011 11:42 am

there are twice as many weeks in baseball than football. i would have to think that if football had 24 or so weeks then the cream would also rise and you wouldnt have the top point getter not making the playoffs

w only 13 weeks...2 or so close losses can spell doom for you. if you had 24 or so you could handle the occasional monster week from you opponent

and yes...playoffs are total crap shoot in both
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Re: Fantasy Baseball - It's Out of (Your) Control!

Postby Skin Blues » Wed Feb 02, 2011 1:32 pm

Fantasy football is to fantasy baseball, as the Arizona fall league is to MLB.

Sure it's fun and all, but there isn't much skill involved. Plus it's almost entirely H2H which might add some trash talking, but really compromises the "cream rises to the top" factor.
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Re: Fantasy Baseball - It's Out of (Your) Control!

Postby MashinSpuds » Wed Feb 02, 2011 5:24 pm

Good write up, SS.

I definitely think luck is involved, but it's more on the players than on the fantasy manager. The manager can do something about it if they pay attention, but not everyone can predict the Tigers or Mets are going to sink this year. The guy you draft early on with high hopes could just as easily mail it in or get stuck in the 8th slot in front of a pitcher. If you're on top of the news you can be competitive.

That said, I will agree that one just needs to cool it with this stuff. I was a bit perturbed at the anecdote about anxiously awaiting the morning paper, hanging on every at bat, etc. I used to be like that for baseball and football early on but since then I would rather just do something else. Cutting down on leagues and finding something else to do has mellowed me out, and I'm glad that it seems you're a bit more laid back regarding this hobby.

It's likely a common understanding among fantasy baseball enthusiasts that when money is involved, especially big money, the anxiety rises. Getting into lower money leagues, or even free ones, might add more fun and experimentation to one's experience.
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Re: Fantasy Baseball - It's Out of (Your) Control!

Postby The Artful Dodger » Thu Feb 03, 2011 1:52 am

This was a good read and much of it I agree with.

Fantasy baseball is sort of like business, in a way. You can do the best market research, attract the right customers, have the right timing, and develop the best product to cater to your audience's needs... and still wind up on the wrong end of the ledger. There's only so much you can control in prep and in transactions, but in the end, if they don't produce to expectation, well that's just the way it goes. Just when you think you have a potential steal like Ricky Nolasco, who is bound to rebound, and as (bad) luck would have it, he's still not quite performing. That said, I will say that preparation and activity comprise of 70% to the formula of success.

In the case of H2H leagues, it's more important to focus on the things you can control. By control, I mean, to focus on the categories that aren't likely to fluctuate weekly. Draft a blend of hitters, who ideally hit for power and get on base quite a bit, while paying less attention on SB and BA. On the pitching side, draft a deep pitching staff of pitchers who post great K rates and don't damage your ERA/WHIP too often. Sounds simple and while this is just one way to win the game, this kind of strategy does tend to give you a bit more say in the results.

Regarding the bigger picture of enjoying fantasy baseball... I will say that the least thing I enjoy with fantasy baseball (I'll even go as far as to say hate) is it's easy to get too wrapped up in information overload. There are so many factors to a hitter's/pitcher's success to consider, many projections to sift through, and various bits of advice to sort out that it can become really overwhelming. Keeping track of players in general alone is cumbersome and too time-consuming, if you let it become that. I'd say this is the primary reason as to why over the last couple of years, my interest in fantasy baseball has waned and why I've lessened my commitment to the game. It's a hobby, but that's exactly the place I'd like to leave it as. I enjoy the drafting season the most, in fact, because the preparation itself is more fun than the dragging through the season. By the time May comes along, I'm less excited about the game and am on cruise control, enjoying life... if not, working hard on the things I love most. It's all about having some perspective and a healthy life balance.
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Re: Fantasy Baseball - It's Out of (Your) Control!

Postby MashinSpuds » Thu Feb 03, 2011 12:02 pm

The Artful Dodger wrote:It's a hobby, but that's exactly the place I'd like to leave it as. I enjoy the drafting season the most, in fact, because the preparation itself is more fun than the dragging through the season. By the time May comes along, I'm less excited about the game and am on cruise control, enjoying life... if not, working hard on the things I love most. It's all about having some perspective and a healthy life balance.

I like this for, as mentioned in my post above, it took some time to catch onto what my interest in fantasy baseball actually is. The draft prep is a ton of enjoyment, for it is the what could be versus what it already is. I actually tend to think it's my older self's Christmas morning given the hype and build up. After getting the team it's a bit of a letdown, for it's not the perfect greatness I envisioned and/or I now have to wait and see what happens. The control is lost, so to say, to the players.

If one finds themselves spending too much time with the information overload, losing sleep from researching waiver claims, or getting frustrated with a league member so that it could divide the relationship, the reality check should kick in. It's not that big a deal. "It's all about having some perspective and a healthy life balance."
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Re: Fantasy Baseball - It's Out of (Your) Control!

Postby Sticky Spice » Thu Feb 03, 2011 12:21 pm

Just to follow up... here's what I was referring to from this year's Forecaster (p 3):

...I am convinced our time will be best spent searching for improvements in playing time projections, injury analysis, and game play itself, including the game theory and economics involved in auction and draft management. Don't forget about (projecting player performance), just don't obsess over it... don't obsess over the Now. Today's Now is tomorrow's Derrek Lee."
“Most men lead lives of quiet desperation and go to the grave with the song still in them.” --Henry David Thoreau
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