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Battle of the young 1B

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Battle of the young 1B

Postby oddmanout7 » Tue Jan 25, 2011 4:18 am

As recent as last year, Smoak was the clear choice. But with his struggles last season, and his move to Sea, Freeman has started to creep up a bit.

Both should receive a significant number of Abs this coming season. Both are not in the top 300 MDP at this time.

What do you see these 2 young 1B doing this season? Beyond?

Justin Smoak - 24 years old 6'4" 220lbs

In 625 minor league Abs: .288 /.404 /.466
In 348 pro Abs: .218 /.307 /.371

26 Ab / HR
.9 BB/K

Freddie Freeman - 21 years old 6'5" 225lbs

In 1580 minor league Abs: .301/ .363 /.472
Only 24Abs in pros.

31.3 Abs / HR
.51 BB/K
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Re: Battle of the young 1B

Postby oddmanout7 » Tue Jan 25, 2011 4:23 am

Just for reference...

Smoak
Bill James: 581PA .249/.351/.414 19HR 67R 70RBI

Freeman
Bill James: 552PA .282/.335/.446 16HR 68R 83RBI
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Re: Battle of the young 1B

Postby Neato Torpedo » Tue Jan 25, 2011 4:51 am

You always have to take Bill James rookie projections with a grain of salt; he thinks they're all....what's the word gnarboots used?...bonerrific. Smoak does have the disadvantage of playing in Seattle, but you have to give him a more forgiving adjustment period because of his rapid rise to the majors. Just because he sucked last year doesn't mean he'll suck this year. I think this year they'll be about even, though Smoak will do better if you make park adjustments (not fantasy relevant though). Long term, Smoak is more likely to produce at a high level because of his great walk rate and acceptable K rate.
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Re: Battle of the young 1B

Postby oddmanout7 » Tue Jan 25, 2011 5:00 am

Both of them may not be fantasy relevant for this season, but just for comparison sake:

Billy Butler 2010 595AB .318 /.388 /.469 15HR 78RBI 77R

With a current MDP of 73.

Obviously Butler is more proven, and the more valuable fantasy player, but Smoak or Freeman may outproduce Butler in a year or two.
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Re: Battle of the young 1B

Postby spydog » Tue Jan 25, 2011 7:23 am

I don't like the ballpark that Smoak plays in so I think his value his always going to be surpressed.

Freeman has excellent MILB numbers for his age at each level (nearly matching Heyward and Jesus Montero), so I think I like his upside quite a bit more. I think he will develop into a 25-30 HR guy with good average (.290ish), so I'd pick him over Smoak longterm. He's projected to bat 8th according to MLBDEpthcharts.com and 7th by Rotochamp, so he's not going to put up great counting numbers this year.

However, I think Freeman eventually moves to the 3-hole and Heyward to cleanup next year or 2013 and his value will skyrocket. Great keeper selection, but he's probably already taken in keeper leagues.
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Re: Battle of the young 1B

Postby J35J » Tue Jan 25, 2011 10:10 am

oddmanout7 wrote:Both of them may not be fantasy relevant for this season.


This is what I am thinking....you just have to be damn good to be relevant as a 1B/Util player...I'm not sure they are quite there yet.
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Re: Battle of the young 1B

Postby oddmanout7 » Tue Jan 25, 2011 2:55 pm

J35J wrote:
oddmanout7 wrote:Both of them may not be fantasy relevant for this season.


This is what I am thinking....you just have to be damn good to be relevant as a 1B/Util player...I'm not sure they are quite there yet.


They might not be for THIS season, but as many of us are in keeper leagues, I am interested to see who is favored to have the better career.
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Re: Battle of the young 1B

Postby hybrid » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:26 pm

I think Smoak is the better overall talent, the park is tough but it's more neutral for lefties so I don't think it effects him as much as people think it will. That said the M's need to keep developing hitting talent to be around him or it may never come to a fruition there. Freeman is very nice as well, the team makes me have a bit more faith in him ... however I'd still likely go w/ Smoak long term.
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Re: Battle of the young 1B

Postby Havok1517 » Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:28 am

I'm not sure this is even a problem or a thought for the Braves but Chipper Jones emphatically needs to move to 1B. Now, pride will likely prevent that from happening but the smart move for the Braves would be to move him. He's already reporting tendentious in his surgically repaired knee but him moving to 1B would drastically limit his wear and tear and allow him to help the team more. Now, I don't foresee Chipper moving but if the slim possibility happens Freddie Freeman, even though he was drafted as a 3B, will likely find himself in LF. Seriously, Chipper Jones is a future HOF player but it's going to come down to him attempting to play 3B and then getting hurt once again, not helping the Braves, and retiring or potentially moving to 1B, limiting his risk to injury, being productive, and squeezing out a few more productive years.
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Re: Battle of the young 1B

Postby wrveres » Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:03 am

are people giving up on Brett Wallace after 159 PA's?
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