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Aaron Hill

Postby Skippyoz » Fri Jan 21, 2011 12:07 am

Any idea on what to expect from him? I tend to shy away from a 0.205/0.271/0.394 slash line.

However, Hill posted a 0.196 BABip last year. Prior to that, he was on a 3-year decline: 0.324, 0.301, 0.288.

Last year, other metrics seemed to be in line with his career averages ... SO%, BB%, XBH%, AB/HR, AB/SO, HR/FB, etc.

Nothing, to me, really stands out except the drop in the BABip, which should reverse right? Are we looking at a potential bounce-back candidate?
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Re: Aaron Hill

Postby PDRAstrosFan » Fri Jan 21, 2011 12:49 am

I asked this same question over at fangraphs.com.

They pointed to:
Line Drive% drop from 19.6% to 10.6%
Ground Ball% drop from 39.5% to 35.3%

all this translated into:
Fly Ball% raise from 41.0% to 54.2%

So we're seeing all of his line drives and ground balls turn into outs, basically. He's more likely to hit it through a hole in the infield with a ground ball or to the gaps in the outfield with a line drive. Fly balls are the most likely to see an out.

Even after all this, I drafted him at pick 151 this year which I feel is a reasonable risk. He's going to get you 25 home runs. He's going to get solid RBI and Runs. Just don't expect the .286AVG again. He's much more likely to be below career norms (.270) than above with batted ball percentage that look like that.
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Re: Aaron Hill

Postby Neato Torpedo » Fri Jan 21, 2011 3:04 am

Well, with a drop in FB% and assuming a similar HR/FB rate, you'll see a rise in AVG but a drop in HR. I'd say he'll be around 21 HR, .263 AVG, like a Juan Uribe+. Definitely worth it to fill out the MI position in the 12th/13th round and a pretty good bet as a back-end starting 2B or Weeks/Kinsler insurance.
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Re: Aaron Hill

Postby LMack » Fri Jan 21, 2011 11:29 am

If his LD% stays down, his BABIP won't rebound to the .300+ territory, but it should come up enough for his average to be sufferable.

I posted this over on the post hype thread

"Aaron Hill belongs in the post hype sleeper category. The .205/.271/.394 line last year was definitely bogged down by the .196 BABIP. His HR/FB ratio leveled out last year, so I think he's a mid 20's homerun hitter. His K rate had slight uptick, but he also upped his walk rate too. I expect the average and OBPto come back up, and that makes him a plus power second baseman who won't completely kill your average.
For reference, he's going at 176 at MDC and 153 according to R&C's MDP report."
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Re: Aaron Hill

Postby RAmst23 » Fri Jan 21, 2011 2:21 pm

My concern with Aaron Hill is that he sucked for pretty much the entire 2010 year minus August where is OPS topped .800. That means it wasn't a bad first half, or just a cold streak, but that he was terrible the whole flipping time.

While you would assume he's going to regress to non-awful, I think a line similar to what Neato pointed out is probably expected. Juan Uribe like .260ish 20 HRs.
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Re: Aaron Hill

Postby LMack » Sat Jan 22, 2011 1:15 am

There is one thing that worries me about Hill's possible average rebound.
It's no secret that he's going to be a below league average BABIP, especially being a high FB% hitter. Mark Reynolds, Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, and Aramis Ramirez all had higher fly ball rates than Hill last year, top 4 in the majors, but better BABIP's as well. All 4 of those players had higher LD rates than Hill, but there is also something else. 3 out of those 4 players had a better speed score than Hill (the one who didn't being a gimpy Aramis) If his LD rate stays down, not being able to beat out a couple extra grounders in the hole will keep his BABIP and average low.
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Re: Aaron Hill

Postby mweir145 » Sat Jan 22, 2011 2:28 am

His swing has completely changed from a few years ago. He's now a hacker with an upper-cut swing, he seems to think he's some kind of slugger. That's the main reason why his BABIP fell so dramatically.

While he's capable of changing back to the way he was, I'm not that optimistic about him. He'll continue hitting 20+ HR a year, though, with a low average.
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Re: Aaron Hill

Postby wrveres » Sat Jan 22, 2011 9:23 pm

mweir145 wrote:His swing has completely changed from a few years ago. He's now a hacker with an upper-cut swing, he seems to think he's some kind of slugger. That's the main reason why his BABIP fell so dramatically.

While he's capable of changing back to the way he was, I'm not that optimistic about him. He'll continue hitting 20+ HR a year, though, with a low average.

doesn't your analysis here, fly in the face of everything you said about career journeyman Jose Bautista last season?
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Re: Aaron Hill

Postby mweir145 » Sat Jan 22, 2011 11:19 pm

wrveres wrote:
mweir145 wrote:His swing has completely changed from a few years ago. He's now a hacker with an upper-cut swing, he seems to think he's some kind of slugger. That's the main reason why his BABIP fell so dramatically.

While he's capable of changing back to the way he was, I'm not that optimistic about him. He'll continue hitting 20+ HR a year, though, with a low average.

doesn't your analysis here, fly in the face of everything you said about career journeyman Jose Bautista last season?

How so? One guy doesn't take walks and his HRs barely make it over the fence, while the other guy is a legitimate slugger led the league in no-doubters and ISO power last season (http://www.hittrackeronline.com/).
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Re: Aaron Hill

Postby wrveres » Sat Jan 22, 2011 11:42 pm

you spent all last season heming and hawing that the reason Joey Bats quadrupled his HR output, at age 29, was because of his new swing. But Aaron Hill, who is younger, and has a better track record, well your not very optimistic that he can rebound from his worst season ever. Never mind he started out the year injured. It just doesn't add up, that's all.
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