I'd probably rank Matusz ahead of him also. I wouldn't be surprised if Hellickson outperformed him but I think Matusz is the safer bet as of now. I also really like Matusz.
ironman wrote:As far as Hellickson, he may be ranked a little high, but keep in mind where David Price was being ranked last season (40s-50s).
And Price doesn't have Helldog's K rate.
I like Hellickson far better than Matusz, simply for the fact that I don't think Matusz will be winning many games. I think he has greater upside. However, Matusz was a beast down the stretch last year and should be given a look in deeper leagues.
Now the R and RBI dips seem a little flukish and the O's offense around him should be a bit better this year, but you're pretty much banking on strong rebounds in those categories for him to carry much value. 12 HR in 709 PA is poor for a corner OFer, and it's not like he's stealing a lot of bags to make up for it. His ISO power has trended downwards for 3 straight years, so it's hard to predict a big rebound to his 23 HR/18 SB days of 2007. I think I would take several of the OFers you have ranked after him (Abreu, Hart, Stubbs, Stanton, Young...possibly Swisher and Wells too) before I'd pull the trigger on Markakis. Just wondering your thoughts (or anyone's thoughts) regarding Markakis. I just don't see a lot of upside there...is it just that he has a higher floor because of his consistently good average?
i'd much rather have a guy with a little more upside. Markakis has a sexy OBP but that doesn't really mean much to me, i'd be much happier with Chris/Delmon Young or even Carlos Lee or Carlos Quentin even. I'd rather get power earlier and average later.