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Problem with auction valuation calcs

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Re: Problem with auction valuation calcs

Postby RugbyD » Wed Jan 12, 2011 10:53 am

OK here's an example of what I'm talking about. These are my OF rankings under one SB value. I then re-sort the list from highest to lowest and it comes out as the second list due to changes in the RP profile. Back and forth, back and forth. Ignore the actual dollar values as I have not yet sanitized the projections. Just pay attention to the valuation gaps.

Code: Select all
abreu,bobby   26                abreu,bobby   13
ankiel,rick   1                ankiel,rick   1
bay,jason   13                bay,jason   10
beltran,carlos   1                beltran,carlos   1
blanks,kyle   1                blanks,kyle   1
borbon,julio   1                borbon,julio   1
bourn,michael   16                bourn,michael   1
bradley,milton   1                bradley,milton   1
braun,ryan   46                braun,ryan   48
bruce,jay   1                bruce,jay   3
byrd,marlon   1                byrd,marlon   1
cabrera,melky   1                cabrera,melky   1
cameron,mike   1                cameron,mike   1
choo,shin-soo   35                choo,shin-soo   31
coghlan,chris   1                coghlan,chris   1
crawford,carl   57                crawford,carl   28
crisp,coco   1                crisp,coco   1
cruz,nelson   28                cruz,nelson   28
cust,jack   1                cust,jack   1
damon,johnny   7                damon,johnny   1
davis,rajai   6                davis,rajai   1
dejesus,david   1                dejesus,david   1
diaz,matt   1                diaz,matt   1
drew,j.d.   1                drew,j.d.   1
dunn,adam   18                dunn,adam   31
ethier,andre   13                ethier,andre   19
fowler,dexter   1                fowler,dexter   1
francisco,ben   1                francisco,ben   1
francoeur,jeff   1                francoeur,jeff   1
gomes,jonny   1                gomes,jonny   1
gomez,carlos   1                gomez,carlos   1
gonzalez,carlos   41                gonzalez,carlos   35
guillen,carlos   1                guillen,carlos   1
guillen,jose   1                guillen,jose   1
hairston,scott   1                hairston,scott   1
hamilton,josh   26                hamilton,josh   32
hart,corey   9                hart,corey   6
hawpe,brad   1                hawpe,brad   1
headley,chase   1                headley,chase   1
hermida,jeremy   1                hermida,jeremy   1
heyward,jason   14                heyward,jason   11
holliday,matt   41                holliday,matt   44
hunter,torii   17                hunter,torii   15
ibanez,raul   9                ibanez,raul   13
jones,adam   2                jones,adam   1
jones,andruw   1                jones,andruw   1
jones,garrett   3                jones,garrett   1
kemp,matt   29                kemp,matt   16
kubel,jason   1                kubel,jason   4
lee,carlos   1                lee,carlos   3
lind,adam   1                lind,adam   1
ludwick,ryan   1                ludwick,ryan   1
markakis,nick   9                markakis,nick   8
maybin,cameron   1                maybin,cameron   1
mclouth,nate   1                mclouth,nate   1
morgan,nyjer   1                morgan,nyjer   1
murphy,david   1                murphy,david   1
parra,gerardo   1                parra,gerardo   1
pence,hunter   17                pence,hunter   12
pierre,juan   11                pierre,juan   1
podsednik,scott   1                podsednik,scott   1
quentin,carlos   1                quentin,carlos   1
raburn,ryan   1                raburn,ryan   1
ramirez,manny   1                ramirez,manny   3
rasmus,colby   1                rasmus,colby   1
reimold,nolan   1                reimold,nolan   1
rios,alex   22                rios,alex   4
rivera,juan   1                rivera,juan   1
ross,cody   1                ross,cody   1
rowand,aaron   1                rowand,aaron   1
schumaker,skip   1                schumaker,skip   1
scott,luke   1                scott,luke   6
sizemore,grady   1                sizemore,grady   1
smith,seth   1                smith,seth   1
snider,travis   1                snider,travis   1
soriano,alfonso   1                soriano,alfonso   1
span,denard   1                span,denard   1
spilborghs,ryan   1                spilborghs,ryan   1
stanton,michael   9                stanton,michael   12
stubbs,drew   25                stubbs,drew   6
suzuki,ichiro   30                suzuki,ichiro   6
sweeney,ryan   1                sweeney,ryan   1
swisher,nick   6                swisher,nick   12
teahen,mark   1                teahen,mark   1
upton,b.j.   17                upton,b.j.   1
upton,justin   16                upton,justin   10
victorino,shane   21                victorino,shane   1
wells,vernon   7                wells,vernon   6
werth,jayson   31                werth,jayson   30
willingham,josh   1                willingham,josh   1
winn,randy   1                winn,randy   1
young,chris_b   2                young,chris_b   1
young,delmon   3                young,delmon   5
zobrist,ben   2                zobrist,ben   1


Here's how the the per-unit values are changed between scenarios:


Code: Select all
R       HR      RBI     SB      BA      OPS
$0.24   $1.01   $0.30   $0.33   $0.55   $0.37
$0.27   $0.73   $0.23   $1.01   $0.44   $0.27
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Re: Problem with auction valuation calcs

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Jan 14, 2011 12:45 pm

wrveres wrote:okay wow. that avatar just freaked me the eff out?
welcome back. don't you owe me money? :-)

That's entirely possible. What did I open my yap about? Reading through my old posts, and I was quite a smartass in my younger days.
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Re: Problem with auction valuation calcs

Postby RugbyD » Fri Jan 14, 2011 6:00 pm

Here's where everything shakes out and I'm feeling OK with it. $ is per full unit. Pitching values needed to be discounted by 5.4% from these levels.


Code: Select all
R       HR      RBI     SB       BA      OPS
16.0%   21.0%   16.0%   10.0%    16.0%   21.0%
$0.25   $0.71   $0.24   $0.65    $0.60   $0.35
               
W       SV      ERA     WHIP     K       K/BB
5.0%    17.0%   20.0%   20.0%    26.0%   12.0%
$0.44   $0.42   $8.83   $42.34   $0.12   $2.80


This is for a 12-tm 6x6 league with a $300 auction budget, starting C,1,2,3,S,O,O,O,U - P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P - B,B,B,B,B,B,B

I allocated 65% to hitting and 35% to pitching
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Re: Problem with auction valuation calcs

Postby Skin Blues » Sat Jan 15, 2011 10:42 am

I don't really understand what the dollar values are for... is there a typo with WHIP being $42 and HR being 42 cents? Maybe I'm just not understanding how you dealt with the rate stats. In any case, I'd probably weight K/BB more heavily since it's more predictable than ERA and WHIP and is the most telling stat about a pitcher which basically indicates how good the rest of his numbers will be.
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Re: Problem with auction valuation calcs

Postby RugbyD » Sat Jan 15, 2011 2:26 pm

Skin Blues wrote:I don't really understand what the dollar values are for... is there a typo with WHIP being $42 and HR being 42 cents? Maybe I'm just not understanding how you dealt with the rate stats. In any case, I'd probably weight K/BB more heavily since it's more predictable than ERA and WHIP and is the most telling stat about a pitcher which basically indicates how good the rest of his numbers will be.

$42 for WHIP means every 1.00 above replacement value is worth $42 for a player's auction price. So if replacement player is 1.30 WHIP, a player with a projected 1.20 WHIP would be worth $4.20 assuming equivalent IP.

I dialed back K/BB b/c i felt that keeping it high was double-counting K since I put so much weight on that category. It was also giving me a really high value on Halladay b/c he's such a stellar performer in that category.

...aaaaand i just found out i've been double-weighting rate stats. Excuse my brain fart, but should I be weighting pre-unit-valuation or post-? Or does it matter?
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Re: Problem with auction valuation calcs

Postby Skin Blues » Sat Jan 15, 2011 3:30 pm

Rate stats should be converted into counting stats. Otherwise a 3.50 ERA in 210 IP counts the same as a 3.50 ERA in 70 IP, which is obviously not the case. There's no hard and fast way of doing this. From the top of my head, you could find the amount of innings your pitchers are expected to pitch (this is easy if you play with an innings limit) and choose a nominal ERA. Maybe the average ERA of players in the player pool, or some other value. Then you can see how many earned runs a team will give up. Say you have a 4.1 ERA over 1200 IP as your nominal values. You'd have 547 ER in a full season. A pitcher with 210 IP and a 3.50 ERA would give up 81.7 ER compared to the nominal value of 95.7 ER. He saved you 14 ER. The guy with 70 IP and the same ERA gave up 27.2 ER with the nominal value being 31.9. He saved you 4.7 ER. We can clearly see that the guy with three times the IP saved three times as many ER. Using "runs saved" as a counting stat makes things much easier to quantify. Same can be done for BA, WHIP, etc. It's a lot of work but it's worth it.
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Re: Problem with auction valuation calcs

Postby RugbyD » Sat Jan 15, 2011 8:30 pm

Skin Blues wrote:Rate stats should be converted into counting stats. Otherwise a 3.50 ERA in 210 IP counts the same as a 3.50 ERA in 70 IP, which is obviously not the case. There's no hard and fast way of doing this. From the top of my head, you could find the amount of innings your pitchers are expected to pitch (this is easy if you play with an innings limit) and choose a nominal ERA. Maybe the average ERA of players in the player pool, or some other value. Then you can see how many earned runs a team will give up. Say you have a 4.1 ERA over 1200 IP as your nominal values. You'd have 547 ER in a full season. A pitcher with 210 IP and a 3.50 ERA would give up 81.7 ER compared to the nominal value of 95.7 ER. He saved you 14 ER. The guy with 70 IP and the same ERA gave up 27.2 ER with the nominal value being 31.9. He saved you 4.7 ER. We can clearly see that the guy with three times the IP saved three times as many ER. Using "runs saved" as a counting stat makes things much easier to quantify. Same can be done for BA, WHIP, etc. It's a lot of work but it's worth it.

Converting rate stats to counting stats is unnecessary as long as your weighting them by IP/AB/PA, right?
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Re: Problem with auction valuation calcs

Postby Skin Blues » Sat Jan 15, 2011 8:43 pm

Yeah it does essentially the same thing. I'm not a math whiz so I'd have to do some samples to see what method works the best, but as long as it's weighted by innings, etc it should accomplish the same goal. It might be a bit wonky and depend on order of operations to incorporate replacement level and all that. I just use "runs saved" and stats like that to keep it simple and consistent, but that doesn't mean it's necessary.
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