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Problem with auction valuation calcs

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Problem with auction valuation calcs

Postby RugbyD » Tue Jan 11, 2011 8:22 pm

I'm having a problem with the speed-only guys mucking up my per-unit auction values. There's an old thread I always go back to that Elijah, LBJackal, Bloody Nips, myself, and other posted in, but it does not offer a good way to account for this problem.

Whenever a Figgins/Pierre/Bourn/whoever slips into the "replacement player" range, their SB stat wildly skews the avg replacement player's SB number up, causing starters' values to get whacked b/c they are viewed as having garbage SB contributions relative to the skewed replacement. If I try to finesse the range of players used to calculate the replacement, I have to re-sort and often the SB player will fall back into the replacement range. I've considered dropping these types of players from my draft universe entirely since I typically don't draft them anyways (6x6 w/OPS), but I'm afraid that will cause someone like Crawford to be way overvalued and 30-SB guys to be moderately overvalued. Maybe this is a good thing since I'm totally knocking the SB-only guys out of consideration, but then power players would be relatively undervalued and I won't bid them up enough.

Any suggestions?
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Re: Problem with auction valuation calcs

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Jan 11, 2011 9:03 pm

You can weight the categories to account for the skew. The recommended split that I've seen work is bumping HR up by about 35% and dropping SB by 25%. BA was also dropped by 20%, and RBI bumped up 10%. These are arbitrary weights that were concluded by people far smarter than me, so I can't fully explain the way they were derived. Using a 6x6 scoring system would obviously affect things, but it's a starting point at least.

Sincerely,

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Re: Problem with auction valuation calcs

Postby StlSluggers » Wed Jan 12, 2011 12:06 am

Why'd you dump the Jackal account, man?
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Re: Problem with auction valuation calcs

Postby BigLebowski » Wed Jan 12, 2011 12:09 am

StlSluggers wrote:Why'd you dump the Jackal account, man?


Jackal...name I've almost forgotten about. Welcome back man.
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Re: Problem with auction valuation calcs

Postby Skin Blues » Wed Jan 12, 2011 12:52 am

StlSluggers wrote:Why'd you dump the Jackal account, man?

Not really sure. Felt like forever since I'd been here when I came back and figured I'd get a fresh start. Can't believe it's almost been 8 years since I first joined... I was a teenager! Went and dusted off the avatar for old time's sake.
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Re: Problem with auction valuation calcs

Postby StlSluggers » Wed Jan 12, 2011 1:06 am

Skin Blues wrote:
StlSluggers wrote:Why'd you dump the Jackal account, man?

Not really sure. Felt like forever since I'd been here when I came back and figured I'd get a fresh start. Can't believe it's almost been 8 years since I first joined... I was a teenager! Went and dusted off the avatar for old time's sake.

Glad to see it again ;-D
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Re: Problem with auction valuation calcs

Postby mblax10 » Wed Jan 12, 2011 1:27 am

This doesn't matter if the guys you select are truly replacement level. Somebody like Bourn skews the replacement level for SB up, but also skews HR & RBI way down.
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Re: Problem with auction valuation calcs

Postby RugbyD » Wed Jan 12, 2011 9:41 am

mblax10 wrote:This doesn't matter if the guys you select are truly replacement level. Somebody like Bourn skews the replacement level for SB up, but also skews HR & RBI way down.

True, but its the magnitude difference between the two that causes the problem. Depending on the dispersion sometimes I get an SB value of over $2 each.
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Re: Problem with auction valuation calcs

Postby wrveres » Wed Jan 12, 2011 9:52 am

okay wow. that avatar just freaked me the eff out?
welcome back. don't you owe me money? :-)
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Re: Problem with auction valuation calcs

Postby RugbyD » Wed Jan 12, 2011 9:53 am

Skin Blues wrote:You can weight the categories to account for the skew. The recommended split that I've seen work is bumping HR up by about 35% and dropping SB by 25%. BA was also dropped by 20%, and RBI bumped up 10%. These are arbitrary weights that were concluded by people far smarter than me, so I can't fully explain the way they were derived. Using a 6x6 scoring system would obviously affect things, but it's a starting point at least.

Sincerely,

Skin Blues aka LBJackal

Good to have you back. I do skew my weights some, which helps but depending on the dispersion it can still get out of whack. Here's what I've been using:

R - 16%
HR - 21%
RBI - 16%
SB - 10%
BA - 16%
OPS - 21%

I'll play with it a little more and report back.
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