Kim Bhasin wrote:You got your contract Adrian! Time to recede back into mediocrity again.
Skin Blues wrote:If somebody gives him $16M per season on a long-term deal they deserve what they get from him.
BitterDodgerFan wrote:too bad beltre won't start performing until the final season of his contract
Now, I realize that for the most part a lot of these types of comments are going to be said half-jokingly or sarcastically, but seriously.... how much are these types of comments going to impact his ADP this season.
Will he be over-valued by an ignorant public who look at only last year? Will he be under-valued because those who make the rankings are aware of what happened after his last post-contract year? Will those two factors kind of even out?
After Longo/Wright/ARod going in the first round, how long are people going to wait on this guy? To be honest, no matter how skeptical I am about his consistency (and completely admitting that his downside is an abysmal .265/15/80/70), the upside of a guy batting clean-up in that Texas lineup is much more attractive than the *yawn* .290/25/90/90 season that Zimmerman is going to put up (again). Yes, I realize how ridiculous it is to expect a .310/30/110/110, but all of those numbers are easily within reach when you're hitting between Hamilton and Cruz.
As of right now, knowing my own drafting patterns, I've got a feeling this guy is going to end up on a bunch of my teams next year coming out of the late (or possibly) early third round. Once somebody else takes Zimmerman, I don't see myself taking another shot on a McGehee/Stewart-type this year. I just can't figure out yet how much I'll be hating myself for that come the ASB.
Somehow this feels like the biggest (and most important) gamble I'll likely be taking during next season's drafts/auctions.
I think he'll be pretty good, but he's no spring chicken and has a history of just disappearing. To commit for that log and remove any financial incentive for him to perform... I don't know, I just see him taking a mental holiday for the rest of his career. I remember way back when, when Erboes talked him up after his magical season in LA, he was touted as a can't-miss. To be fair, Mr. Boesinger was right about a lot of things, but he was way off on Beltre.
The money is about right, but 6 years is way too long.
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
I don't think so but the injuries will tell the story. I'd gamble on Beltre before ARam
Beltre is going to be going in drafts a helluva lot higher than Aram. I think ARam is a very solid value next year. I had definite concerns about him because of his injuries in spring training last year, and sure enough he was injured for most of the first half. But he provided solid stats in the second half, and I think he's a great bounce-back candidate for 2011. I doubt he will return to his elite status of earlier days, but a .280 average and 25+ homers is well within reach.