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fantasy baseball algorithm discussion

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Re: fantasy baseball algorithm discussion

Postby mr anderson... » Tue Dec 28, 2010 1:09 pm

Fenway Punk wrote:
mr anderson... wrote:
for instance: there were 1198 saves, 1993 holds, and 2410 wins for the entire imported player pool. my reasoning tells me that due to the disparity between these categories, a save will be twice as effective at winning its respective category versus a win due to it being twice as scarce, and subsequently that a relief pitcher with 5 wins and 10 saves will be 39.9% more effective (valuable) as a relief pitcher with 5 wins and 10 holds.


id=0B5XYzuCghXJXNTgyZDQ3ZWEtMTE3MS00MmRhLTlhN2EtMmVjMWQ2N2ViYjhl&sort=name&layout=list&num=50


I disagree with this, respectfully. Since you also count W, K, K/9, and QS, I would think that SP weigh alot heavier on the outcome than a RP. I get that since there are less saves than they are wins, that saves could be more effective (in theory) but I think many may take this message the wrong way. I can easily see a beginner reading this and taking away that because saves are less abundant, it's better to have more closers than SPs. Also, your entire arguement and theory is based upon a certain statistical setting, so you would have to be playing under these exact same settings to follow this logic to a T. Great stuff though. "Baseball :Played by the ambidexterous, understood by the poindexterous. "



i agree whole-heartedly : i was just mainly comparing relief pitchers against one another in that small example (was using a flawed calc at the time but the principle still stands that 1 save is twice as valuable as 1 win, but by no means does that mean a reliever is twice as valuable. i apologize that i didnt make it clear in my original post
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Re: fantasy baseball algorithm discussion

Postby mr anderson... » Thu Dec 30, 2010 5:10 pm

here is my calc uploaded to megaupload. i guess google docs wasnt working

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=U1K89DEI
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Re: fantasy baseball algorithm discussion

Postby RugbyD » Tue Jan 04, 2011 9:32 am

mr anderson... wrote:next step for me is to try and streamline it so i can just select a button for the scoring categories rather than have to physically write the function in the cell and copy it down, and start inputing my personal projections. hopefully i wont have to make it a macro since i currently do not know how to write one, but i suppose i could learn if needed.

you guys have any thoughts or suggestions?

for this i create two separate columns for each scoring system and then record a macro since I don;t know how to write one. I then create two buttons and assign them each one of the recorded macros.
TennCare rocks!!!!
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Re: fantasy baseball algorithm discussion

Postby mr anderson... » Sat Jan 08, 2011 11:53 am

my calc is nearing completion. it can currently calculate positional adjust rankings and auction values on the fly with user inputed roster positions, scoring settings, auction budgets - pretty much everything. im pretty proud of it. now i just need to finish coding for the different possible scoring categories.


i currently have:

fully functional offensive categories:
r
rbi
hr
sb
avg
hits
doubles
triples
walks




in progress offensive categories
singles
on base percentage
slugging
OPS
strikeouts
caught stolen



fully functional pitching categories
wins
saves
strikeouts
ERA
WHIP
QS
k/9
k/bb
holds

in progress pitching categories
losses
bb/9
hits
homeruns

does anyone have any scoring categories or custom positions that you have seen or would like added? im trying to make this as universal and user friendly as possible.

current positions i have coded for:
c
1b
2b
3b
ss
middle infielder
corner infielder
infielder
lf
rf
cf
of
starting pitcher
relief pitcher
pitcher

i will post once i am done for all to share - but if you have looked at any of the ones i have posted earlier this one is 100x better for comparisons sake ;-D
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Re: fantasy baseball algorithm discussion

Postby midwestpatsfan » Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:31 am

Like I said in my PM's to you, I am really excited to give this program a try.

I was wondering where you came up with your projections for each player? Did you use projections that you came up with yourself(if so, wow! again) or did you use a websites like cbs, espn etc. or did you use an average of multiple sources?

Just was reading through all the posts(again :-) ) because I find this so interesting and you mentioned you were a little worried with the sample size and I thought you could always try to use the average from several sources if that is a concern for you. As I have mentioned before, this computer stuff is way over my head, so maybe I read that part wrong, which is most likely the case.
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Re: fantasy baseball algorithm discussion

Postby mr anderson... » Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:50 am

im currently coding to allow users to select from multiple projection sources. and the sample size is corrected within the program itself based on the number of players deemed to be drafted, and will autocalculate off a set factor.

for instance, if the total drafted count is between 300 and 399, it will take 1.15X said number
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Re: fantasy baseball algorithm discussion

Postby mr anderson... » Mon Jan 14, 2013 1:21 pm

ok im going to res this thread as i didnt really know the appropriate place to put this. I know a few of you have used (and some even still use) this spreadsheet that i put together a few years ago.

I got bored and decided to put together a new one. It uses a better logic line and with my proficiency in excel coding increasing in the last few years - it runs quicker on most machines. I believe it should be able to run on excel 2003 (although i havent tested it) with only a few minimal issues like colors on the headers and such.

I wrote this up on a webs site (free to set up - i didnt want to put any money in to this). I'm not trying to pimp this out for financial gain or anything like that - i wont see any of it. i just wanted to share what i've been working pretty hard on for the last couple weeks. you can download and read about the logic behind it at:

http://fantasybaseballcalculator.webs.com/

currently it only has 2012 finished stats in - so at the very least you can see how valuable certain players were with your league settings in mind. it can do AL/NL/MLB only formats with 42 scoring categories.

i am working on being able to select from a list of projection sources, but i have no timetable for publishing on that yet. I am also kicking around the idea on a CG/SHO predictor. I have been able to put together a formula for QS that has a correlation of 0.96, so i'm gonna see what i can do with those stats that are a nightmare to mock.

if you have any ideas on scoring cats, spreadsheet functions, really anything i would love to hear about it.

I'm sure there are better interfaces out there - but i havent really seen any that allow you to get new pick by pick adjusted values based on the prices that current players have gone - something im pretty proud of right now. This is more geared as a draft day tool as opposed to just a list generator

if you try - i hope you enjoy!
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