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Greinke to the Brewers

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Re: Greinke to the Brewers

Postby Zito is God » Mon Dec 20, 2010 1:24 am

Stunned when I saw this. Positive that they had better offers on the table. Hell, if you were gonna do a deal with the Brewers, you should have done it when they still had Lawrie and asked for Lawrie instead of Jeffress. If KC got Cain, Lawrie, Escobar and Odorizzi, THAT would have been a package. The future infield would have been Moustakas, Excobar, Lawrie and Hosmer. THATS a team that has a chance to compete (and Cain in CF, although I agree he will never be a star, would have helped). This deal is underwhelming, unless Greinke goes nuts again anyway.
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Re: Greinke to the Brewers

Postby wrveres » Mon Dec 20, 2010 8:44 am

BitterDodgerFan wrote:tony gwynn jr?

wait, he's a sub 250 hitter, nevermind

and a dodger. thank god.
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Re: Greinke to the Brewers

Postby Skin Blues » Mon Dec 20, 2010 9:31 am

I'm curious as to why some people are so high on Cain. The centerfielder for the next 10 years? He must be an amazing fielder because the bat looks very suspect, and I don't see any glowing prospect rankings on him. The fact that he's relatively new to baseball and has been moving along such a steep learning curve is intriguing, but he's a complete unknown at this point and already 25 years old. Injured or ineffective for all of 2009 between Rookie ball and AA. He had so-so success in AA/AAA last season. He was decent in 150 at-bats during a september call-up, but then again so was Alcides Escobar in 2009. This Odorizzi kid better be really good.
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Re: Greinke to the Brewers

Postby Tavish » Mon Dec 20, 2010 11:51 am

Skin Blues wrote:I'm curious as to why some people are so high on Cain. The centerfielder for the next 10 years? He must be an amazing fielder because the bat looks very suspect, and I don't see any glowing prospect rankings on him. The fact that he's relatively new to baseball and has been moving along such a steep learning curve is intriguing, but he's a complete unknown at this point and already 25 years old. Injured or ineffective for all of 2009 between Rookie ball and AA. He had so-so success in AA/AAA last season. He was decent in 150 at-bats during a september call-up, but then again so was Alcides Escobar in 2009. This Odorizzi kid better be really good.


I'm not sure I would call his bat very suspect. He has shown the ability to take a decent amount of walks throughout his minor league career and his excellent speed should help sustain a slightly higher than league average BABIP. If he can post a .340s OBP, play above average defense, and steal 30+ bases then you have a prototypical CFer. That is almost exactly what the Bill James 2011 projection has for him (.279/.345/.379 with 33 SB).

Overall I'm extremely excited about the return DM got for Greinke. I actually like this package a little better than some of the rumored proposals (Drabek/Snider/D'Arnauld or Desmond/Norris/Solis). While Odorizzi isn't as major league ready as Drabek or Solis his upside is just as high as either of them. For a pitcher that would probably become a top 3 pitching prospect on any team he went to, he is probably the Royals #5 or #6 ranked pitching prospect now. Cain and Escobar both fill in major needs with the the club with something they haven't had at the major league or minor league level in years. Excellent speed and above average defense at SS and CF. Escobar's bat was certainly disappointing last year at the ML level, but the .264 BABIP should definitely improve and with his glove he should easily be a consistent 2.5+ WAR player. Plus getting Escobar allows the Royals to switch Colon to 2B and put him on the fast track to the majors. Assuming Jeffress' off-field issues are behind him, the guy has the potential to be an absolute stud in the bullpen and will likely become the heir apparent to Soria. 100MPH fastball with a nasty curve is hard not to be intrigued by.

Above all of this is the presser DM gave announcing the trade. The Royals may well lose 100 games this year (I doubt it, I actually think this will be a slighty better team than last year even without Greinke) but DM made pretty clear the intent this season. Duffy and Teaford may make the rotation out of Spring Training, Moose will likely be up in June, by the end of the season there is a very strong chance we see Hosmer, Crow, and Montgomery. The bullpen will be filled with recently acquired fireballers like Coleman, Collins, Tejada and Jeffress. No more watching Betancourt play SS like he would rather be taking a nap on the beach and the threat of Melky Cabrera roaming CF should be put to rest.

I absolutely hate to see Greinke go and I really want to be mad at Zack for forcing the Royals hand this offseason, but I can't find it in myself. He is just too cool of a goofball to ever get mad at. As much as I hate to see him go, the team is better set for the future now than it was before the trade. He wasn't going to sign an extension so he wasn't going to be a part of the prospect surge.

The team has a grand total of $0 committed to the 2012 payroll and the prospects should start filling up those roster spots that DM has had to scratch and claw to fill with overpaid, free agent retreads during the last 3 offseasons. For the last 3 offseasons everytime there has been a collective groan when GMDM signs an Ankiel or Francouer or Kendall, I've defended him by saying it really doesn't matter, he just needs warm bodies to serve as placeholders. Beginning next offseason that defense is gone. He will have the cash and the pieces beginning to fall into place where those choices will matter.
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Re: Greinke to the Brewers

Postby Kim Bhasin » Mon Dec 20, 2010 11:58 am

Skin Blues wrote:I'm curious as to why some people are so high on Cain. The centerfielder for the next 10 years? He must be an amazing fielder because the bat looks very suspect, and I don't see any glowing prospect rankings on him. The fact that he's relatively new to baseball and has been moving along such a steep learning curve is intriguing, but he's a complete unknown at this point and already 25 years old. Injured or ineffective for all of 2009 between Rookie ball and AA. He had so-so success in AA/AAA last season. He was decent in 150 at-bats during a september call-up, but then again so was Alcides Escobar in 2009. This Odorizzi kid better be really good.


Cain got a bunch of hype from Milwaukee fans because they didn't like Carlos Gomez.

The Brewers were actively dangling Cain specifically at the winter meetings, so maybe they think he's a sell-high.
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Re: Greinke to the Brewers

Postby mblax10 » Mon Dec 20, 2010 12:32 pm

Tavish wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:The team has a grand total of $0 committed to the 2012 payroll


This may be correct in theory, but Soria's $6MM option will be picked up if he's not first traded. The likes off Butler, Escobar, Cabrera, Aviles, Gordon, Hochever, etc will all be in their arb years and making a lot more than they are now. Very rough estimate, that's $30MM, or about half of the Royals payroll in recent years.

I see a lot of people not liking this trade from both sides, but big picture seems like a win-win. Royals should have gotten more, but Escobar is better in real life than fantasy player because he should be an avg or better defensive SS for years. Hoping his bat returns to 09 levels is pretty optimistic, but he's definitely a better hitter than his numbers showed in 10 and he's young enough that there's some projection left. Cain is still pretty raw. Being a star is probably a long shot, but he can play CF. Maybe he's a 4th OF in the end, but as stacked as the Royals system is, they lack up the middle talent and just added 2 MLB ready guys with lots of years of team control left. Jeffries has definite closer stuff if the control improves a little and he gets past his off-field issues. Odrozzi is just behind the wave of Royals pitchers in talent, and distance from the majors. He would be the #1 pitching prospect on a good amount of teams and it never hurts having too many pitching prospects.

Overall, the Royals add to their unbelievable wealth of young talent. This is a team that should win multiple AL Central crowns in the middle and 2nd half of this decade. It's very unlikely Grienke would still be around so they move him and keep building. The Brewers see a weak NL Central and their window to win is pretty much this year before Prince leaves. The farm system was pretty weak to begin with so "gutting" it is not a big deal and something they can quickly rebuild with 2 top 15 picks in the loaded '11 draft & 2 1st rounds picks for Prince in '12 & Greinke in '13.
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Re: Greinke to the Brewers

Postby Tavish » Mon Dec 20, 2010 1:11 pm

mblax10 wrote:
Tavish wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:The team has a grand total of $0 committed to the 2012 payroll


This may be correct in theory, but Soria's $6MM option will be picked up if he's not first traded. The likes off Butler, Escobar, Cabrera, Aviles, Gordon, Hochever, etc will all be in their arb years and making a lot more than they are now. Very rough estimate, that's $30MM, or about half of the Royals payroll in recent years.

Obviously they won't start the 2012 offseason with nobody on the roster, but the point is there is no commitments. Which is exactly where it should be for a team that is expecting a major influx of talent from their minors. There is nothing there to block prospects any longer, no Guillen, Meche, Kendall, Betancourt, Bloomquist, etc. The team has been building towards that point for the last 4 years by signing stopgap players and running out AAAA caliber players to hold down the fort as they continued to grow what some now consider one of the most talented minor league systems in recent baseball history. The clock for players like Aviles, Gordon, Hochevar, Betemit, Getz, and Ka'aihue is ticking very fast for them to lockdown a spot.

Heading into the 2012 season there is a fairly realistic projection of a full 25 man roster that comes in at around $50m that doesn't include promoting several of the big prospects like Myers. And the 2013 projection of a 25 man roster is around $40m. The Royals payroll was roughly $70m last season and about $60m this season after the Greinke trade. $20m+ to spend on FA for 2 or 3 spots should be able to land at least one impact free agent.
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Re: Greinke to the Brewers

Postby StlSluggers » Mon Dec 20, 2010 1:19 pm

Tavish wrote:
mblax10 wrote:
Tavish wrote:


This may be correct in theory, but Soria's $6MM option will be picked up if he's not first traded. The likes off Butler, Escobar, Cabrera, Aviles, Gordon, Hochever, etc will all be in their arb years and making a lot more than they are now. Very rough estimate, that's $30MM, or about half of the Royals payroll in recent years.

Obviously they won't start the 2012 offseason with nobody on the roster, but the point is there is no commitments. Which is exactly where it should be for a team that is expecting a major influx of talent from their minors. There is nothing there to block prospects any longer, no Guillen, Meche, Kendall, Betancourt, Bloomquist, etc. The team has been building towards that point for the last 4 years by signing stopgap players and running out AAAA caliber players to hold down the fort as they continued to grow what some now consider one of the most talented minor league systems in recent baseball history. The clock for players like Aviles, Gordon, Hochevar, Betemit, Getz, and Ka'aihue is ticking very fast for them to lockdown a spot.

Heading into the 2012 season there is a fairly realistic projection of a full 25 man roster that comes in at around $50m that doesn't include promoting several of the big prospects like Myers. And the 2013 projection of a 25 man roster is around $40m. The Royals payroll was roughly $70m last season and about $60m this season after the Greinke trade. $20m+ to spend on FA for 2 or 3 spots should be able to land at least one impact free agent.

You do realize that this is all fine and dandy until they give Jeff Francoeur a 3-year/$30M contract next winter.

:-D
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Re: Greinke to the Brewers

Postby Tavish » Mon Dec 20, 2010 1:28 pm

StlSluggers wrote:You do realize that this is all fine and dandy until they give Jeff Francoeur a 3-year/$30M contract next winter.

:-D

They could always flip him for prospects at the trade deadline.
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Re: Greinke to the Brewers

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Dec 20, 2010 1:54 pm

Tavish wrote:
StlSluggers wrote:You do realize that this is all fine and dandy until they give Jeff Francoeur a 3-year/$30M contract next winter.

:-D

They could always flip him for prospects at the trade deadline.

Who is he, Ben Sheets?
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