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My Top 50 MLB Prospects

Postby Havok1517 » Wed Dec 15, 2010 3:02 am

1 A. Chapman (Cin - P) – Hitting 105mph from the left side, the sky is the limit if healthy
2 D. Brown (Phi - OF) – Daryl Strawberry comparisons aren’t so farfetched now
3 B. Harper (Was - OF) – He has the skills to live up to the hype, we’ll see on ATL 40-man
4 M. Machado (Bal - SS) – Best SS prospect in the game, liking the Larkin comp more than ARod
5 J. Hellickson (TB - SP) – Showed great poise in the majors last year
6 W. Myers (KC - C) – His hitting potential at C could be elite production
7 D. Ackley (Sea - 2B) – Personally think he has more ability to stay at 2B than Lawrie & Kipnis
8 J. Montero (NYY - C) – The bat is legit and the glove at backstop might be okay for awhile
9 E. Hosmer (KC - 1B) – As he’s matured and added muscle to his frame, his bat has become special
10 Sh. Miller (Stl - SP) – After Chapman and Hellickson, Miller has the best prospect arm in baseball
11 M. Trout (LAA - OF) – Need to see what he’ll do in more advanced levels, Grady Sizemore ceiling
12 M. Moustakas (KC - 3B) – Led the minors in HR last year and could be the starting KC 3B in ‘11
13 G. Green (Oak - SS) – Hitting production is there and he’ll improve his defense enough for SS
14 D. Jennings (TB - OF) – Crawford leaving clears him a spot but his power projections have decreased
15 B. Lawrie (Tor - 2B) – Some say Jeff Kent with speed, maybe Uggla with some SBs is more like it
16 J. Taillon (Pit - SP) – Best HS arm in the last draft, some say best HS arm in last decade, playing wait game
17 M. Sano (Min - 3B) – MCab comparisons have me intrigued and he does ooze talent
18 J. Turner (Det - SP) – Very overlooked and as he matures look for all of his offerings to improve
19 A. Hicks (Min - OF) – Maybe the best pure athlete in the minors, ranked for potential
20 C. Sale (ChW - P) – Steal in the draft by the White Sox, proved he can pitch in the MLB, can he start though?
21 J. Teharen (Atl - SP) – Weighs 150lbs and there are questions on how he’ll do when he fills out
22 M. Pineda (Sea - SP) – Really like him and think he’ll be a great #2 behind King Felix in time
23 B. Belt (SF - 1B) – Came out of nowhere to become the future 1B in SF
24 B. Jackson (ChC - OF) – Reminds me of a slightly less powerful/less fast Drew Stubbs
25 M. Perez (Tex - SP) – Throws bullets and could be the biggest beneficiary of Lee leaving
26 F. Freeman (Atl - 1B) – Not a superstar but he’ll be a productive hitter for the future
27 J. Kipkis (Cle - 2B) – Loved to move to 2B and he’ll be a great 2B keeper
28 Si. Castro (SD - SP) – Plus stuff and legit multiple offerings in SD equals production
29 W. Flores (NYM - SS) – Like Sano, very young but extremely talented
30 K. Drabek (Tor - SP) – Looked good late in the season and will go with the pedigree
31 D. Mesoraco (Cin - C) – Next to Belt, he raised his stock more than anyone else
32 J. Parker (Ari - SP) – Health concerns aside, he has ace potential
33 D. Gordon (LAD - SS) – Love the speed and contact ability, will replace Furcal in LA
34 Z. Wheeler (SF - SP) – Very overlooked in the 2009 draft, but should add to the SF starting arsenal
35 R. Delgado (Atl - SP) – Some actually think he’ll be better than Teharen, Braves 40-man roster
36 T. Matzek (Col - SP) – Came on late last season but one of the more power lefty prospects
37 N. Franklin (Sea - SS) – I’m not sure he’s a 20/20 player in the upper levels but he might be
38 Y. Alonso (Cin - 1B) – The bat is there and the power should come back as his wrist heals
39 K. Vitek (Bos - 3B) – Like his speed, size, glove and power potential over the other ’10 3B draft picks
40 M. Moore (TB - SP) – Don’t think his effective wildness plays well in the majors
41 J. Profar (Tex - SS) – Reminds of Starlin Castro and eventually Edgar Renteria
42 D. Betances (NYY - SP) – He’s a huge figure on the mound and now healthy
43 Z. Cox (Stl - 3B) – Might lack the physical projection for 3B, rumors about moving to 2B too
44 D. Tate (SD - OF) – Yet to play above Rookie ball but the talent and projection is still there
45 Z. Bitton (Bal - SP) – Better in reality than fantasy
46 C. Blackmon (Col - OF) – Just another weapon for the Rockies outfield
47 M. Minor (Atl - SP) – Gained mph and was a good during stretch in majors
48 M. Dominguez (Fla - 3B) – Glove is remarkable, might be the starting FLA 3B in ‘11
49 K. Gibson (Min - SP) – Like Britton, could be better in reality than fantasy
50 L. Chisenhall (Cle - 3B) – Not bad at anything but not great at anything, Bill Mueller maybe?
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Re: My Top 50 MLB Prospects

Postby KoolPapaBell » Fri Dec 17, 2010 2:32 pm

Thanks for posting this, along with the blurbs. I guess Montgomery and Lamb are the surprising omissions, and I imagine Gary Sanchez will be cracking your 50 soon.
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Re: My Top 50 MLB Prospects

Postby Havok1517 » Fri Dec 17, 2010 3:15 pm

KoolPapaBell wrote:Thanks for posting this, along with the blurbs. I guess Montgomery and Lamb are the surprising omissions, and I imagine Gary Sanchez will be cracking your 50 soon.


Yeah, Sanchez is a little young still for me. Montgomery has a Top 25 arm but only a Top 75 injury history. I personally prefer arms like White, Britton, and Minor over Lamb.
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Re: My Top 50 MLB Prospects

Postby cardinal1975 » Sat Dec 18, 2010 7:19 pm

Havok1517 wrote:
KoolPapaBell wrote:Thanks for posting this, along with the blurbs. I guess Montgomery and Lamb are the surprising omissions, and I imagine Gary Sanchez will be cracking your 50 soon.


Yeah, Sanchez is a little young still for me. Montgomery has a Top 25 arm but only a Top 75 injury history. I personally prefer arms like White, Britton, and Minor over Lamb.


I understand not having Sanchez in your top 50 but it seems that being young doesn't hold much water with Sano being near the same age and level.

I think your list is well thought out for the most part but there are a few I disagree with including:

Machado - I like him but Barry Larkin as a comp...Machado's weakest tool is speed which is avaerage...I think maybe a M.Tejada type bat if everything clicks.

Vitek - could be good or maybe just average....also where will he play? 2B? 3B? CF? LF?....I'm not ready to annoint him in the top 50 and really not sure if he is even top 100

Blackmon - Really? This seems the most questionable of all the picks in my mind.

Tate - he seems to get a pass depsite not being able to stay healthy or even put up good production....seems more like a 90-100 prospect at this point since he does have the talent but many others have had that much talent and not cashed in as well due to injuries.
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Re: My Top 50 MLB Prospects

Postby Havok1517 » Sun Dec 19, 2010 2:35 am

cardinal1975 wrote:
Havok1517 wrote:
KoolPapaBell wrote:Thanks for posting this, along with the blurbs. I guess Montgomery and Lamb are the surprising omissions, and I imagine Gary Sanchez will be cracking your 50 soon.


Yeah, Sanchez is a little young still for me. Montgomery has a Top 25 arm but only a Top 75 injury history. I personally prefer arms like White, Britton, and Minor over Lamb.


I understand not having Sanchez in your top 50 but it seems that being young doesn't hold much water with Sano being near the same age and level.

I think your list is well thought out for the most part but there are a few I disagree with including:

Machado - I like him but Barry Larkin as a comp...Machado's weakest tool is speed which is avaerage...I think maybe a M.Tejada type bat if everything clicks.

Vitek - could be good or maybe just average....also where will he play? 2B? 3B? CF? LF?....I'm not ready to annoint him in the top 50 and really not sure if he is even top 100

Blackmon - Really? This seems the most questionable of all the picks in my mind.

Tate - he seems to get a pass depsite not being able to stay healthy or even put up good production....seems more like a 90-100 prospect at this point since he does have the talent but many others have had that much talent and not cashed in as well due to injuries.


Noted, I guess I need to see more of Sanchez and playing C at 17 is hard to project.

I'm okay with the Tejada comp for Machado though Machado is much bigger and more athletic. I choose Larkin because I don't like comparing anyone to ARod.

Vitek is playing 3B longterm and the Red Sox view him as a their future 3B there. There really isn't anything not to like about Vitek imo. He'll have a 6'3 225 peak body which will increase his power, quick hands, good barrel control, double-digit steals, glove will translate to 3B, has a killer arm as he pitched low 92-94 in college, and he was also picked over Cox in the draft by the Red Sox, who aren't dummies. http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news ... p&sid=t558

You know, to be honest Blackmon didn't really register on my top 50 radar until it was rumored that the Marlins, Rangers, and Royals all wanted him in the potential deals for Nolasco, Young, and Greinke. So, I did some more research and scouts love the guy. He actually projects quite well. He has a cannon of an arm, can play all 3 OF positions, good glove, 20 SB speed, doesn't strike out much, has a good 6'3 frame to build on which I think will add some power. He also has batted leadoff for much of his minor league career which can hamper power numbers but I think that eventually comes to a halt in '11. I think he'll arrive in Col in 2011 and his arm might even be better than CarGo's. Call it a speculative pick based on recent information including his AFL numbers http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... ndon-belt/. Stats: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minor ... ackm002cha

The Tate ranking is purely based on potential. My logic is that he's just had some crazy injuries, ex broken jaw in an ATV accident, that has hampered his development and if he was eligible to be draft again, he'd still be a top 10 pick. Tate is still a potential beast. 2011 will be very telling as he'll likely get his 1st dose of A-AA ball but he's highly talented.
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Re: My Top 50 MLB Prospects

Postby mblax10 » Sun Dec 19, 2010 2:08 pm

Good list. When I first saw it, I pretty much came up with the same 3 questions marks, Vitek, Blackmon & Tate. Machado ranking is pretty aggressive, but at least you didn't do it for the wrong reason, lazy A-Rod comparison.

Vitek still has a lot of questions on his defense. He also struck out a ton in his pro debut, granted in a small sample size. But that's not good for a supposedly polished college bat. I don't think the fact that he was drafted over Cox is a fair argument. Vitek was expected to sign for slot and went slightly over around $1.3MM. Cox was making crazy demands before the draft because it was such a week class and as a Sophomore he had plenty of leverage. The $2MM he ended up signing for is not much more than Vitek, but a $4MM-$6MM price tag was being floated around leading up to the draft. From this draft, I'd prefer the high ceiling guys like Choice, Lee, Allie, Castellanos, etc. As far as polished college hitters, I'd put Cox, Grandal, Olt, Gary Brown and maybe Gyorko ahead of Vitek.

Blackmon, I had not read much on more than he's very good defensively. Looked quickly at his numbers and they look good, but nothing outstanding. They also don't look quite as good when you factor his age and he's played in some hitter friendly environments. I'll pretty much plead ignorance on his bat but don't see a lot to get excited about.

Tate's injuries have piled up. When he was on the field last year scouts thought he was even rawer than expected and he did little to impress numbers wise. Guys like Hicks, Tate & Beckham are hard because the potential is there but at some point very soon both need to start showing some signs of progress. In Tate's case, staying on the field would be a nice start.

The other guy not yet mentioned that I think is missing is Chris Carter. Yes, he struggled in his short MLB debut and he's always going to strike out a lot. He also has more right now power than anybody in the minors. Now that Stanton's in the majors if I was asked to pick a minor leaguer most likely for a 40 HR season in the majors, I'd take Carter.
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Re: My Top 50 MLB Prospects

Postby Havok1517 » Tue Dec 21, 2010 4:21 pm

mblax10 wrote:Vitek still has a lot of questions on his defense. He also struck out a ton in his pro debut, granted in a small sample size. But that's not good for a supposedly polished college bat. I don't think the fact that he was drafted over Cox is a fair argument. Vitek was expected to sign for slot and went slightly over around $1.3MM. Cox was making crazy demands before the draft because it was such a week class and as a Sophomore he had plenty of leverage. The $2MM he ended up signing for is not much more than Vitek, but a $4MM-$6MM price tag was being floated around leading up to the draft. From this draft, I'd prefer the high ceiling guys like Choice, Lee, Allie, Castellanos, etc. As far as polished college hitters, I'd put Cox, Grandal, Olt, Gary Brown and maybe Gyorko ahead of Vitek.


I really don't think the Red Sox avoided Cox because of his salary demands. I fell if they had wanted him, they would have drafted him as salary demands haven't stopped them in the past. I see big things ahead for Vitek, stay tuned.
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Re: My Top 50 MLB Prospects

Postby mblax10 » Tue Dec 21, 2010 7:42 pm

The Sox aren't afraid of the money but would they waste money on somebody who wants to be overpaid? It's very possible the Sox saw Cox as a $2.5MM player asking for $6MM and Vitek as a $2MM player asking for slot. You think they would've taken Cox and gave him his money? They also like to overpay for sandwich picks and guys in later rounds. You have to assume they have some sort of draft budget and taking Cox would eat a lot of it.

I know Vitek has some supporters, I just don't agree with the rationale if Cox was better, the Red Sox would've taken him.
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Re: My Top 50 MLB Prospects

Postby TheBull » Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:51 am

Taillon is TOP 5...no questions asked.
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Re: My Top 50 MLB Prospects

Postby Havok1517 » Fri Jan 07, 2011 5:10 pm

TheBull wrote:Taillon is TOP 5...no questions asked.


Really? I'm hesitant to rank a high arm that high without seeing how he does as pro in a full season. Also, Pittsburgh has had horrible luck with 1st round pitchers (Bullington, Burnett, Van Benschoten, etc). So, it will be interesting to see how this revamped organization develops their arms.
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