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Fangraphs 2011 DL Predictions

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Fangraphs 2011 DL Predictions

Postby MTUCache » Tue Dec 14, 2010 4:59 pm

J. Zimmerman over at fangraphs has started (yet another) a pretty interesting project... assigning a percentage chance that a given player will see DL time in the following year based on statistical factors including their age, games started in the past three years, DL trips in the past, etc.

Starting Pitcher DL Projections (Part 2)

Obviously we're up near the limit of the value statistical analysis here, where things either become negligible or "duh" very quickly, but I found it interesting to see the criteria that he picked for this analysis.

Per his current model (which is likely to be adjusted as he takes more factors into account):
Top 5
Pettite - 56.5%
DiceK - 55.1%
Hudson - 55.0%
Westbrook - 55.0%
Carpenter - 54.7%

Bottom 5
Ubaldo - 30.0%
Porcello - 29.3%
Danks - 29.2%
Cahill - 29.0%
Kershaw - 27.3%

I'm very interested to see if there's some way he can't apply some sort of a multiplying factor to this based on pitch speed, throwing motion, etc.

Obviously if the difference between the Top 5 and Bottom 5 is only 25% we're not looking at a very valuable fantasy tool here (especially considering we're not even discussing how long these DL stints will be), but I did find it interesting.

Using some kind of combination of this score (for more established pitchers) with the Verducci effect (for younger/developing pitchers) I'm sure I'll find at least a handful of pitchers to avoid for 2011 that I wouldn't have expected to see on my no-go list.
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Re: Fangraphs 2011 DL Predictions

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Dec 14, 2010 5:42 pm

The author had it right when he said things either become negligible or "duh" very quickly.

Also, you can't really associate pitch speed with injuries. Everybody is built differently. Certainly a guy throwing 105 MPH is putting a lot of strain on his arm because you know he's throwing as hard as he can, but you can't rule somebody out for only throwing low-90s. Maybe they need to use the same force and strain on their arm to get to their maximum speed, which happens to be lower because their arm is shorter, less efficient delivery, etc. So for those handful of guys like Chapman, Zumaya, and Strasburg, you know they're susceptible to injury, but the "how fast is your heater" metric is otherwise pretty useless at determining injury potential on anything other than a per-case basis.
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Re: Fangraphs 2011 DL Predictions

Postby StlSluggers » Tue Dec 14, 2010 6:35 pm

Wish he'd have posted the r-squareds for each of those factors. :-[
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Re: Fangraphs 2011 DL Predictions

Postby A Fleshner Fantasy » Wed Dec 15, 2010 3:18 pm

So by his logic, the most durable pitcher in the league will still hit the DL 1 in every 4 years? :-?

How can the least likely pitcher to go on the DL still have a 27% chance of hitting the DL?
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Re: Fangraphs 2011 DL Predictions

Postby StlSluggers » Wed Dec 15, 2010 3:32 pm

Because pitching is dangerous.
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Re: Fangraphs 2011 DL Predictions

Postby Kim Bhasin » Wed Dec 15, 2010 3:54 pm

A Fleshner Fantasy wrote:So by his logic, the most durable pitcher in the league will still hit the DL 1 in every 4 years? :-?

How can the least likely pitcher to go on the DL still have a 27% chance of hitting the DL?


Greg Maddux, who's gotta be the most durable modern era pitcher ever, hit the DL 1 time in 20 years, 5% of the time.

Nolan Ryan had a reputation for durability, and he hit the DL 6 times in 25 years (not sure how many were in the same year), 24% of the time.

Maddux is a very, very special case. It seems reasonable that the most durable pitchers in the league that aren't outliers would hit the DL, even for just a 15-day stint, once every 4 yrs.

It'd be nice to see more data on this though.
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Re: Fangraphs 2011 DL Predictions

Postby Neato Torpedo » Wed Dec 15, 2010 4:52 pm

A Fleshner Fantasy wrote:So by his logic, the most durable pitcher in the league will still hit the DL 1 in every 4 years? :-?

Someone doesn't understand statistics. O:-)
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