Less Panda is more

[fast dogs]

from Rotoworld:
Giants GM Brian Sabean told reporters Friday that Pablo Sandoval has dropped 15 pounds since the end of the 2010 season
What is your take on this guy? Which of the last 2 seasons will be closer to his 2011? To me he's 1 of the more interesting guys to trade for/away right now. Do you keep him ahead of higher ranked players with less risk? Is it the time to buy low? If you can get anything decent for him do you sell?

[superjags99]

I bought low on him at the end of the season in my dynasty league. Hoping he gets to the form he captured a couple years ago when he hit .330 with 25 HR and 90 RBIs. I figured he was a low risk, high reward guy if he can turn everything around. At 24 years old I think he has plenty of time to turn things around. So getting into shape will be a huge plus.

[GoodOl'Days]

Getting in shape will be the easy part, plate discipline is what he needs and he's appeared to be a bit of a hard-head about it so far.

[McStallen]

That story is encouraging, but I am going to need to see a lot more than one feel good story about weight loss before I am willing to risk much on him.

If you look back at past seasons, there are dozens of stories either about skinny players bulking up or fat guys losing a little weight- and more often than not it is nothing more than team propaganda, and the players' fantasy production does not improve.

And I also agree that plate discipline is a bigger issue with Sandoval- that is an entirely different problem. He was hard headed about it because he had a lot of initial success as a free-swinger, but it eventually caught up with him.

[LMack]

If you look back at past seasons, there are dozens of stories either about skinny players bulking up or fat guys losing a little weight- and more often than not it is nothing more than team propaganda, and the players' fantasy production does not improve.

Did you also hear that Lance Berkman is in the best shape of his life?

While best shape of my life stories are indeed mostly fibs, I think the Kung Fu Panda has a bounceback year. His BABIP and HR/FB ratio were down last year, so he should come up some. High teens, low twenties power with an average a little north of 300. The R/RBI opporrunities are tied to his position in the lineup. I think he lost the 3 spot permanently to Posey now, so he might have to hit out of the 5 or 6 spot. I think you can expect around 150 R/RBI.

[hot4tx]

Remember when Bob Abreu added 30 lbs of muscle in one offseason and was going to have his career year but then was constantly playing injured the whole season with that much added bulk to his frame? Yeah that sucked.

Remember when Prince Fielder became a vegetarian to lose weight so he would be a better player? Yeah that sucked.

Remember when Juan Gonzalez bulked up and then had terrible numbers in 1994 because his flexibility was so poor? Yep.

Remember in 1982 when Daryl Porter was on some crazy workout regiment late in the season that was going to help him shake off a poor season and get ready for post-season play? Ok, so that one worked out pretty good.

[GiantsFan14]

[jake_twothousandfive]

I think last season was pretty close to his floor. So there's a good chance I'm going to like him where he'll be going in drafts next season. He'll be a good fantasy gamble IMO.

[hot4tx]

First off that' a pretty low floor and not what you want from a starter in any but deep NL/AL only leagues. Second if he hits like that this year they'll be quicker to pull the plug on the panda. Even with moderate improvement over last season if he ends up losing at bats he's kp.

A 10% across the board improvement (comparable to what he did from August on versus his yearly totals) if he loses at bats early and only gets 450 at-bats is a 54-11-55-3-.295 line. Even with a 20% improvement overall if he only gets 450 at-bats is a 59-12-60-3-.322 line. So him keeping his job (unlike last season) is a risk and adds some downside, though without Uribe there isn't any one else.

[AKhomebrewer]

Drafting in this game is about finding value. In both the Cafe and current Yahoo! draft rankings, Panda's dragging along in the No. 13 spot at a 3b position the "pundits" are calling thin.
We're talking about a bench (or CI, or util) option in a 12-team league at that draft slot. For the potential he retains to post a facsimile of 2009 (or even splits the difference between 09-10), he's definitely worth a look there. This is not the same as saying you should reach several rounds COUNTING on 2009 numbers.