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2011 Top 75 Prospects

Postby oddmanout7 » Mon Nov 15, 2010 9:31 pm

I always find it hard to put together a list, because it is often a gut feeling or arbitrary as to one guy is above another. Take this list with a grain of salt, as everyone will have different opinions depending of how much you have seen or read about one player or another. My list is ever changing, and I may update this a few times this offseason as more information and scouting reports come out. Feel free to comment.

1 Jeremy Hellickson TB - SP
2 Mike Trout LAA - OF
3 Julio Teheran ATL - SP
4 Aroldis Chapman CIN - SP
5 Bryce Harper WAS - OF
6 Domonic Brown PHI - OF
7 Jesus Montero NYY - DH
8 Mike Moustakas KC - 3B
9 Wil Myers KC - C/OF
10 Eric Hosmer KC - 1B
11 Desmond Jennings TB - OF
12 Michael Pineda SEA - SP
13 Shelby Miller STL - SP
14 Dustin Ackley SEA - 2B
15 Aaron Hicks MIN - OF
16 Matt Moore TB - SP
17 Manny Machado BAL - SS
18 Martin Perez TEX - SP
19 Jacob Turner DET - SP
20 Freddie Freeman ATL - 1B
21 Mike Montgomery KC - SP
22 Brett Lawrie MIL - 2B
23 Kyle Gibson MIN - SP
24 Mike Minor ATL - SP
25 Wilmer Flores NYM -SS
26 Jameson Tallion PIT - SP
27 Brett Jackson CHC -OF
28 Dellin Betances NYY - SP
29 Jarrod Parker ARI - SP
30 Miguel Sano MIN - 3B
31 Nick Franklin SEA - SS
32 John Lamb KC - SP
33 Zach Britton BAL - SP
34 Kyle Drabek PHI - SP
35 Chris Sale CHW - SP
36 Grant Green OAK - 2B
37 Randall Delgado ATL - SP
38 Gary Sanchez NYY - C
39 Brandon Belt SF - 1B
40 Devin Mesoraco CIN - C
41 Zach Wheeler SF - SP
42 Dee Gordon LAD - SS
43 Jonathon Singleton PHI - 1B
44 Danny Espinosa WAS - 2B
45 Tyler Maztek COL - SP
46 Manuel Banuelos NYY - SP
47 Jordan Lyles HOU - SP
48 Carlos Perez TOR - C
49 Simon Castro SD - SP
50 Alex Wimmers MIN - SP
51 Wilin Rosario COL - C
52 Zach Stewart TOR - SP
53 Lonnie Chisenhall CLE - 2B
54 Yonder Alonso CIN - 1B
55 Jake Odorizzi MIL - SP
56 Nick Castellanos DET - 3B
57 Jurickson Profar TEX - SS
58 Michael Choice OAK - OF
59 Brandon Beachy ATL - SP
60 Daniel Duffy KC - SP
61 JP Arencibia TOR - C
62 Chris Carter OAK - OF
63 Jarred Cosart PHI - SP
64 Matt Davidson ARI - 3B
65 Nick Weglarz BAL - OF
66 Arodys Vizcaino ATL - SP
67 Tony Sanchez PIT - C
68 Nolan Arenado COL - 3B
69 Anthony Rizzo BOS - 1B
70 Jason Kipnis CLE - 2B
71 Kolbrin Vitek BOS - 3B
72 Mike Taylor OAK - OF
73 Jason Knapp CLE - SP
74 Bobby Borchering ARI - 3B
75 Hank Conger LAA - C
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Re: 2011 Top 75 Prospects

Postby mblax10 » Tue Nov 16, 2010 10:00 am

I was going to say here are my major disagreements and I ignored some nitpicking. In the end, there are a lot of guys I disagree on, so I probably can't say that.

15 Aaron Hicks MIN - OF-Wow! I have Hicks on my fantasy team so I want to believe in him. That being said, I'm surprised people still have him in the top 50. 15 is pretty crazy. At some point the tools need to turn into in game performance. He repeated low A with very little improvement. No idea how he can be a top 15 guy.

26 Jameson Tallion PIT - SP-Seems a bit low for me. Tailon is arguably the best HS pitcher in over a decade. Even without any pro experience, I put him above the other young pitchers like Turner & Perez. Shelby Miller would be close because he has 1 dominant pro season under his belt.

30 Miguel Sano MIN - 3B-Maybe I'm crazy, but I have Sano a lot higher. How do you not love a 17 year old top international signee who just starts mashing the day he steps on US soil?

43 Jonathon Singleton PHI - 1B-If you take out his first 25 games or so, his numbers are pretty pedestrian. His ceiling is very high, but he's a long way from it. Being limited to 1B he's going to have to mash. Not yet a top 100 guy for me.

45 Tyler Maztek COL - SP-Had control problems most of the year but also showed flashes of dominance. The stuff was still excellent. Going into the season, he was ahead of Miller, Turner & Wheeler. I'm not ready to drop him this far.

48 Carlos Perez TOR - C-Is he really ahead of Derrek Norris or some of the older TOR C? He has some nice tools including his glove, but you have to figure his speed will decrease if he stays behind the plate.

50 Alex Wimmers MIN - SP-I don't like low ceiling finished products. I'm still working on my list but doubt he cracks my top 200.

52 Zach Stewart TOR - SP-I don't get what people see in him. I think BA ranked him pretty high last year and I didn't get it. What's so special about him?

57 Jurickson Profar TEX - SS-If this is for real life baseball the ranking is closer to fine. For fantasy, a lot of his value is in his glove so this is way too high.

59 Brandon Beachy ATL - SP -See Wimmers.

62 Chris Carter OAK - OF -Calling his MLB debut rough would be very nice. It was also only 70 AB at the end of the season. Yes, he strikes out way too much but he also has more right now in-game power than anybody on this list.

63 Jarred Cosart PHI - SP-I like Cosart and he had a very nice full (half?) season debut. I would want to see how a young pitcher who's shut down in June and sent to James Andrews recovers before ranking this aggressively.

68 Nolan Arenado COL - 3B-Another guy who cooled off in the 2nd half. this is pretty high for a young guy without much power ceiling or defensive ability.

70 Jason Kipnis CLE - 2B-I have him much higher. What's not to love about Kipnis? He made the same transformation as Ackley from college OF to MILB 2B. Kipnis put up better numbers and received much better reports on his defense. If Ackley had Kipnis' season, he'd be in the conversation for #1 overall.

71 Kolbrin Vitek BOS - 3B-Vitek's one of those guys that people have always had huge ranging opinions on. I was down on him before the draft. Post-draft, a college guy known for his pure hitting ability shouldn't strike out this much at low levels. There's a lot of guys from the June draft I'd take over him. Just looking at college hitters, Grandal & Cox jump out as better options.
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Re: 2011 Top 75 Prospects

Postby oddmanout7 » Tue Nov 16, 2010 12:50 pm

Hicks - Went from wRC+ of 106 last season to a wRC+ of 132 this season. Not the jump that everyone expects, but it is improvement. I love the guys potential, and while he probably carries more risk than some of the guys below him, he also carries more upside. Probably my most aggressive ranking, so I will either eat crow, or look great. Hopefully it is the later. Others have him in the top 20. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/10/ ... ly-top-100
While another has him top 25
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/10/ ... rospects-2

So while my ranking is aggressive, it is not as much as you seem to think it is.

Tallion - Great potential sure, but I want to see a little 1st. I found him hard to rank, moving him up a few, and down a few.

Sano - Again, you love the guys potential, so you want him higher, when him being ranked this high in the 1st place was due to potential. In 161PA in rookie ball his wRC+ was 130, which is good but not special. He is still very young, but I see him having more risk than Hicks.

Singleton - Power, Patience, and size. Perhaps a bit optimistic, but I expect him to surprise people this season

Maztek - I understand he was working on stuff this season, trying to throw his change more, but for a "high velocity" lefty, hitting 88-92 on the gun, doesn't inspire too much. Still like the kid, just need to see more.

Perez - wRC+ 142, Ks the same as last year, walks are up. Still hasn't shown much, but .834OPS at age 19 is nothing to sneeze at.

Norris - wRC+ 141, Ks up, walks up, power down. I seem him as a solid major league C, but not an all star. He hit .235 in A+ as a 21 year old, with a BABIP of .296, so it was not all him being unlucky.

Arencibia - His ISO in AAA was .325, which is out of this world. He didn't really get consistent playing time in the bigs, but I see him as a big power, low average guy. Useful, (that's why he is ranked), but I think Perez can be more balanced.

Wimmers - Does he have the upside of some guys below him? No, but I see him having a high floor, and for me that justifies his rank. SMALL SAMPLE SIZE: 13.21 k/9, 2.87 BB/9 at A+

Stewart - Again, a low ceiling, but a higher floor. GB Tendencies with some Ks.

Profar - Tons up upside. his wRC+ of 103 at A- doesn't inspire too much confidence, but he should stick at SS, and he is only 17.

Beachy - Potential to contribute in 2011. Wont light the world on fire, but between 119ip in AA/AAA 11.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9. Not my favorite, but the numbers are what they are.

Carter - Huge power, but I am not a fan of Carlos Pena, and nor I am a fan of his clone.

Cosart - Injury "The team is being cautious with Cosart. But the Phils were concerned enough by Cosart's injury to send him to renowned orthopedist James Andrews of Birmingham, Ala., in early July for an examination. Andrews did not recommend surgery."

Arenado - May not have the power, but I see him with Garrett Atkins like seasons. http://scoutingthesally.com/?p=2194

Kipnis - Doesn't have the upside or pedigree of Ackley, so I don't see a comp other than position. Hit well with .878OPS between A+/AA, but he will be 24 next season. Again, I see a low ceiling, higher floor. Last year only 1HR in 111AB in A+ also kinda scares me.

Vitek - Fast hands, and a wide range of opinions depending on who you talk to (as you said). I could go either way with him, but I know some who think highly of the kid, so that is why he is there.

Thank you for your comments, you definitely made me think. I would be interested in seeing you list if you wouldn't mind posting, just to generate some discussion. Its clear we are going to have major differences in opinion, but if everyone had the same ideas, there would be not point to making lists like this. ;-D
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Re: 2011 Top 75 Prospects

Postby J35J » Thu Nov 18, 2010 7:41 pm

You'd think since prospect rankings are very difficult to do you'd want to put them in tiers to help distinguish which guys are close to one another and the order wouldn't much matter to those that are a tier or 2 down, etc.
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Re: 2011 Top 75 Prospects

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Nov 18, 2010 9:57 pm

Brandon Belt should be like 30 spots higher.

/homer
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Re: 2011 Top 75 Prospects

Postby oddmanout7 » Fri Nov 19, 2010 2:58 am

J35J wrote:You'd think since prospect rankings are very difficult to do you'd want to put them in tiers to help distinguish which guys are close to one another and the order wouldn't much matter to those that are a tier or 2 down, etc.


Ya I tried that Jason, but then it seemed after the 1st few tiers, moving between tiers becomes almost arbitrary.
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Re: 2011 Top 75 Prospects

Postby oddmanout7 » Fri Nov 19, 2010 3:11 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:Brandon Belt should be like 30 spots higher.

/homer


I like Brandon Belt. He should be a very solid player, and he did post a OPS of over 1.000. He has power, patience, and even a few SB. But then I look at his severely inflated BABIP of over .400. This suggests to me that a bit of luck was involved.
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Re: 2011 Top 75 Prospects

Postby MasterX1918 » Sat Nov 20, 2010 6:52 pm

Isn't Drabek a Jay?
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Re: 2011 Top 75 Prospects

Postby rhd » Tue Nov 23, 2010 11:37 pm

MasterX1918 wrote:Isn't Drabek a Jay?


Yes, and Weglarz is an Indian, not an Oriole.
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