So I'm starting on my spreadsheet for next year when I get to Buster Posey. What a great rookie year, right? I mean he flat raked, right.....yes and no. He absolutely destroyed July... 103AB .416/.466/.699
Whoa! But what about the rest of the year.... 303AB .267/.316/.439 huh? He's also more a ground ball hitter who had a solid HR/FB ratio this year...it wouldn't suprise me if his 18hr in 406AB is more than what he puts up in 2011 in 520ABs.
Don't get me wrong, I really like Posey and think he's a pretty solid hitter who will see alot of ABs and will get to do his damage in the heart of the order but he does have some warts and growing pains ahead of him, IMO. He might be an early candidate for my 2011 overrated list....What say you?
as a rookie catcher he had a lot on his plate with learning the pitching staff and becoming a better receiver and ball blocker. he also caught every single game down the stretch and only got a day off when the team had an off-day. he definitely was getting heavy legs as the season wore on.
he also hit the ball quite hard in september but a lot of those balls found gloves as can be seen by the .198 BABIP. he had his highest walk rate in september and hit 8 home runs, more than he hit in july. he hits the ball to all field and has a great opposite field approach. they showed a graphic during the playoff game where out of his ~120 hits almost exactly 40 went to each field. the one thing i can see hurting his value a bit is that he hits so many balls to the opposite field which in AT&T could deflate his power numbers. he hit 8 homeruns to the right of center field this year and it's ridiculously hard for RHHs to go opposite field at AT&T. that said, he definitely has 20 homerun power and should be a perennial .300 hitter. he also has the clean up spot in the line up pretty much locked up which provides plenty of value on its own.
obviously i have some giants bias going on here but i watch him play pretty much every game and i think i'd rather have him than mccann next year. a little less power, with more average and better RBI/run numbers. that said, he does come with more risk than mccann, but i think it's a trade off worth making.