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Ryan Raburn, 1B/2B/OF Det.

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Ryan Raburn, 1B/2B/OF Det.

Postby West » Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:08 pm

Man I love this guy. Picked him up in both my leagues at the end of August in lieu of a slumping Kendrick and have rode him til now. He'll probably slow down a touch with Mcab possible done for the year but I like him for next year. He has 2B eligibility in most leagues and I feel that makes him a really strong pick for next year. Leyland seems to like him enough.

This year's ratios:
.277/.339/.476/.814

Last 2 years combined:
608AB
.283 95 R 36 2B 30HR 104 RBI 7 SB

Anyone else like him as a top 6 2B for next year?
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Re: Ryan Raburn, 1B/2B/OF Det.

Postby Dan Lambskin » Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:27 pm

people said the same thing last year and it was late August before he turned it on
i'm not sold that he'll A) get a full time opportunity and B) produce if he does
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Re: Ryan Raburn, 1B/2B/OF Det.

Postby DaSh 1s » Tue Sep 28, 2010 12:48 pm

Top 6?
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
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Re: Ryan Raburn, 1B/2B/OF Det.

Postby MTUCache » Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:11 pm

West wrote:...and I feel that makes him a really strong pick for next year....
Anyone else like him as a top 6 2B for next year?


Not even close.

Playing time concerns alone are enough to make this guy not even a factor in a 15-team league next year. Leyland may love these AAA guys, and Illitch may be slashing payroll like crazy for next year and starting a youth-movement, but there's still ton of them.

At 2B Raburn will be in line behind at least two of the following: Sizemore, Rhymes, Santiago, or a free-agent-to-be-named-later. (1B obviously being a non-factor with MCab.) Considering he's a staggering 29 years old (probably five years older than I thought), he's not exactly in their long-term plans.

In the OF he's got a decent shot at a starting gig, but that's assuming that at least one of Ordonez, Guillen, or Damon are no longer on the team (and one of the remaining two is DHing full-time). It would also be assuming that he beats out Boesch, Wells and Kelly for that spot (or Kelly is playing SS).

Assuming a 100% lock on playing time, a .280/95/30/105/5 line would look pretty nice in a MI spot. But that's a big assumption, and would also depend on him actually producing those numbers... certainly not a given considering he's never been more than a utility guy.
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Re: Ryan Raburn, 1B/2B/OF Det.

Postby West » Tue Sep 28, 2010 3:28 pm

MTUCache wrote:
West wrote:...and I feel that makes him a really strong pick for next year....
Anyone else like him as a top 6 2B for next year?


Not even close.

Playing time concerns alone are enough to make this guy not even a factor in a 15-team league next year. Leyland may love these AAA guys, and Illitch may be slashing payroll like crazy for next year and starting a youth-movement, but there's still ton of them.

At 2B Raburn will be in line behind at least two of the following: Sizemore, Rhymes, Santiago, or a free-agent-to-be-named-later. (1B obviously being a non-factor with MCab.) Considering he's a staggering 29 years old (probably five years older than I thought), he's not exactly in their long-term plans.

In the OF he's got a decent shot at a starting gig, but that's assuming that at least one of Ordonez, Guillen, or Damon are no longer on the team (and one of the remaining two is DHing full-time). It would also be assuming that he beats out Boesch, Wells and Kelly for that spot (or Kelly is playing SS).

Assuming a 100% lock on playing time, a .280/95/30/105/5 line would look pretty nice in a MI spot. But that's a big assumption, and would also depend on him actually producing those numbers... certainly not a given considering he's never been more than a utility guy.


I certainly would never project a .280/95/30/105/5 line, although I can see how some would take it that way. I was merely pointing out hit 600 ab pace. I could see .280 20-80 given a full season. I agree, that 29 years old is quite alot older than I actually thought either. However, look at a guy like Jayson Werth, who busted out at that age as well.
I can see the playing time concerns, but then again, last year people argued that Carlos Gonzalez had playing time concerns. I'm not sure anyone's taken the time to look, but Raburn has slugged over .600 in August and September combined. If he keeps hitting like that, they will have to play him.
Top 6 is certainly a stretch now that I think about it, but with playing time I can see him putting up something like a Casey McGehee line, with a few less home runs.
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Re: Ryan Raburn, 1B/2B/OF Det.

Postby kimchi_chigae » Tue Sep 28, 2010 3:28 pm

Dan Lambskin wrote:people said the same thing last year and it was late August before he turned it on
i'm not sold that he'll A) get a full time opportunity and B) produce if he does


I agree. I do think he's a nice gamble if he gets PT. You can still buy him cheap next year, so, depending on the size of the league, I wouldn't reach him as a top 6 2B, but I would gladly take him as a bench player.
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Re: Ryan Raburn, 1B/2B/OF Det.

Postby West » Tue Sep 28, 2010 3:36 pm

MTUCache wrote:At 2B Raburn will be in line behind at least two of the following: Sizemore, Rhymes, Santiago, or a free-agent-to-be-named-later.

And I also think you're crazy for this line. Sizemore, Rhymes and Santiago slugged .351, .392 and .322 this year. Just downright awful. I understand they're committed to Sizemore and Santiago can play some defense but seriously, Raburn's been batting 2nd, 3rd or 5th for most of the last two months. They're gonna get his bat in the lineup if he keeps hitting. And given Damon and Magglio's age I could definitely see him scoring more playing time due to injuries. Just because he is eligible at 2nd base doesn't mean he has to play there. Sorry, but I don't think you really know what you're talking about here.
And how is Boesch or Kelly going to beat him out for a spot? Have you looked at any of these guys' numbers? They are all inferior hitters to Raburn.
And I'm not suggesting that anybody draft him like a top 6 second baseman. I just think he has the potential to have a positive return on your investment. Certainly he will have loads of value in a 15 team league. Give me a break guy.
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Re: Ryan Raburn, 1B/2B/OF Det.

Postby West » Tue Sep 28, 2010 3:42 pm

Raburn batting cleanup today with MCab out. Yeahhh...they're really going to just send him down to AAA next year, him being the ridiculously old ago of 29 and basically worthless.
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Re: Ryan Raburn, 1B/2B/OF Det.

Postby MTUCache » Tue Sep 28, 2010 4:26 pm

West wrote:Give me a break guy.

Look, you can misinterpret or read too much into anything I type, so obviously I'm not going to be able to convince you that I'm not crazy... if I'm an idiot, so be it, but I've been watching this guy get hot for a couple weeks at a time for several seasons now. He's got about as much of a "proven track record" as most of the guys the Tigers have run out in LF (from Thames to Craig Monroe).

I can tell you the guy is an absolute hack in the OF, and even more scary in the infield. This impacts his playing time. His bat has been impressive for what? The last six weeks? And you're going to project that into a full-time spot next year when he hasn't managed to do that for the last four years as a AAAA/September Call-up guy? Who's crazy here?

You're absolutely sure he's beating Boesch out for a corner outfield spot next year? Before the ASB people were talking about splitting votes for the ROY between Boesch and AJax!

Bottom line... could he have a full-time job locked up before next years drafts? Sure.
Does he right now? No... not even close. I'm not putting him on any of my draft boards until well into ST next year, and maybe not even then. I'm not saying he's worthless. I'm not saying he couldn't have a good fantasy season next year.

Look, I like the guy, but a hot August/September and being on Leyland's good side isn't going to get him in the top 10 of any position next year. There's any number of a hundred different things that could happen between now and then.
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Re: Ryan Raburn, 1B/2B/OF Det.

Postby MTUCache » Tue Sep 28, 2010 4:31 pm

West wrote:Certainly he will have loads of value in a 15 team league.

Here's some really rough 2B rankings from the 2011 Projection topic:
Second Base:
1 - Robinson Cano
2 - Chase Utley
3 - Dustin Pedroia
4 - Ian Kinsler
5 - Dan Uggla
6 - Rickie Weeks
7 - Brandon Phillips
8 - Martin Prado
9 - Brian Roberts
10 - Ben Zobrist
11 - Howie Kendrick
12 - Aaron Hill
13 - Casey McGehee
14 - Ian Stewart
15 - Chone Figgins
16 - Gordon Beckham
17 - Placido Polanco
18 - Kelly Johnson
19 - Juan Uribe
20 - Ian Desmond

If you're insisting that he'll be more valuable than Beckham/Uribe/Desmond, that's fine. You can certainly make an argument for that.

Even if you give him an everyday spot in the lineup (2B or otherwise), some nice projections, and a favorable spot in the Tigers' lineup, I don't see him in the top 12 in my 2011. Sorry. I'm not trying to be a jerk here, I'm just saying there's a lot more options out there that I'd rather have.

Depending on his contract/options/Dombrowski's mood, he may not even be in the Tigers organization next year. We're making an awful lot of assumptions here, aren't we? He's a good option as a platoon or fourth OF guy. Let's not start drinking the guy's bathwater just yet.
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