Abundance of Keepers?!

[mmkae0]

Hey guys,

This is my first post... so sorry if it's not completely according to the rules:

I play in a 12 man keeper auction roto league. Categories are standard Yahoo! 5x5. I am in the fortunate position of having an abundance of potential keepers for the 2011 season and would just like a little feedback. League allows for 4 keepers for 2011.

Budget: $260
C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, Util, Util, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P
Bench: 6

Our inflation value on keepers is $5. So if I drafted at $10, he would be $15 to keep. If he was a free agent, it'd be consider $1 minimum value plus $5 for a total of $6

Here are the keepers I'm thinking about and their 2010 auction price:
- Ryan Howard 1B ($34) - really good value for his numbers
- Rickie Weeks 2B ($2) - exploded this year... will he regress?
- Chris Johnson 3B (FA so $1) - rookie that is showing a lot of promise
- Jose Bautista 3B, OF (FA so $1) - so hard to value him but at $6 for next year... almost seems like I have to
- Carlos Gonzales OF ($16) - he's probably the one that is 100% going to be kept
- Nelson Cruz OF ($6) - numbers are gaudy IF he's healthy
- Jon Lester SP ($19) - consistency and numbers are getting better year by year
- Trevor Cahill SP (FA so $1) - was in cy young talks until a month ago?
- Brett Myers SP (FA so $1) - young and upcoming?
- J.A. Happ SP (FA so $1) - same as above.

Thanks for the help guys.

Here's my roster:
12 Team Keeper Auction League (Year 3)

Scoring: Roto

Roster Updated 9/24/10

C - John Buck
1B- Ryan Howard
2B- Rickie Weeks
3B - Michael Young
SS - Ben Zobrist
OF - Carlos Gonzales
OF - Jose Bautista
OF - Nelson Cruz
Util - Chris Johnson
Util - Aubrey Huff
BE - Adam Jones
BE - Rajai Davis

SP - Jon Lester
SP - Trevor Cahill
RP - Carlos Marmol
RP - Huston Street
P - John Axford
P - Derek Lowe
P - John Danks
BE - J.A. Happ
BE - Brett Myers
BE - Carlos Zambrano
BE - Clayton Richard

[Phillip]

Given that it is only 4 keepers my mentality would be all hitters unless there is a complete steal at P. So I would look at Howard and CarGo who are good values and very consistent. The last two I would take out of the group of Cruz, Bautista, and Weeks. All three have potential questions. For Cruz health is the main question. For Bautista repeatability is the question and for Weeks the question is similar to Cruz, he finally showed what he is capable of in a full year, but can he repeat it. I like the numbers that Cruz brings even when he has DL stints and like his ballpark and lineup. That would leave the question to Bautista or Weeks. If Bautista will maintain his 3B eligibility I would probably lean that way. So I would say: Howard, CarGo, Bautista, and Cruz.

Please help here: viewtopic.php?t=419362

[jake_twothousandfive]

CarGo: An absolute must.
Ryan Howard: An elite power bat and well worth $39.
Cruz: He's injury prone but $11 is too good to pass up for a hitter of his caliber.
Lester: For me pitchers are harder to predict than hitters. I find consistently great pitchers extremely valuable. $24 is a bargain for a pitcher like Lester IMO.

Bautista looks like a steal given what he's done this season but I don't see him coming close to this season ever again. A dead pull hitter in an offensive park has a lot of potential but Baustista hasn't shown nearly enough to be considered a true slugger. You could easily get burned by keeping him if he regresses badly (which I consider likely).

If you'd rather try to save as much money as possible, Chris Johnson, Brett Myers and Trevor Cahill to me are all legitimately very good players that will be worth much more in 2011 than you'd have to pay for them. But I'd rather keep the players I listed earlier as they'd be worth the extra cost IMO.

[mblax10]

You can make an argument for Cahill, Lester or Myers but I like these 4. Weeks & Cruz injury history isn't good but there's too much value. Even the most pessimistic on Bautista have to say $1 for next year is an absolute steal.

- Jose Bautista 3B, OF (FA so $1) -
- Carlos Gonzales OF ($16) -
- Nelson Cruz OF ($6) -
- Rickie Weeks 2B ($2) -

[fast dogs]

I'd never keep Howard @ $39 in a $260 league when you have real values to hold instead. Its all about retaining guys well below what they'd go for in the auction next year. Myers qualifies there but he's not young and there are too many pitching options to throw back these 4 hitters that mblax 10 has mentioned:
- Jose Bautista 3B, OF (FA so $1) -
- Carlos Gonzales OF ($16) -
- Nelson Cruz OF ($6) -
- Rickie Weeks 2B ($2)

[pjalst]

I agree with Phillips. If you're only keeping 4, I think it should be 4 hitters. There will be plenty of quality SP left over to choose from.

Fast Dogs also makes a good point with Howard, you'll get good numbers but you're not getting much value if you're paying $39. That's money that could be spent elsewhere. I also like his picks Bautista, C Gon,Cruz and Weeks. gives you good production and good value.



Please help viewtopic.php?f=26&t=419455

[dannahann]

- Jose Bautista 3B, OF (FA so $1) -
- Carlos Gonzales OF ($16) -
- Nelson Cruz OF ($6) -
- Rickie Weeks 2B ($2)

[chargerss24]

- Jose Bautista 3B, OF (FA so $1) -
- Carlos Gonzales OF ($16) -
- Nelson Cruz OF ($6) -
- Rickie Weeks 2B ($2)

+1

With so few keepers allowed to be kept, you keep the bats. Hard to not keep Howard, but you'll have the chance to perhaps get him cheaper in your auciton. Cruz will be huge for you IF he stays healthy.

Take a peak at mine? viewtopic.php?t=419479