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SS - 2011

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SS - 2011

Postby MTUCache » Thu Sep 23, 2010 5:36 pm

Looking ahead towards next season (already!), I think shortstop/MI is going to be one of the more interesting items, especially in keeper and/or large leagues...

For the past two or three seasons we've had a pretty clear distinction between the guys in the "top half" of the SS position (Hanley/Tulo/Reyes/Rollins/Jeter) and then the "rest" of the guys who the remainder of the league consigns themselves to owning (hoping that they'll produce some kind of upside in speed while not killing the average/power numbers).

This coming season though I think we're seeing a bit of a shakeup. Suddenly that group at the top (outside of Hanley/Tulo anyway) doesn't look nearly as "safe", and there's several interesting up-and-comers who present a somewhat different aspect besides just SB (which are now abundant all over the MI/OF positions).

I'm interested to hear the Cafe's take on the following guys:
Zobrist: Okay... so who is this guy really? Speed? Power? Both?
Infante: Ridiculous average, putting up numbers. Where did this come from?
Alexei Ramirez: Is this a step up here, or just a small surge?
Alex Gonzalez: Looks like a beast on the rise here.
Elvis: Can this guy give you anything other than 90/30/.260?
Aybar: All around miserable year. A negative in every category.
Drew: How much would a trade effect his value?
Scutaro: No power, no speed.
Starlin Castro: Dependable enough to count on next year?
Bartlett: Pretty much losing his job at this point.
Brignac: Is he going to get that job?

Do any of these guys come anywhere close to the top-5 group? How far is Rollins going to drop? I'm not seeing a very gradual dropoff here. I'm seeing a big logjam at the replacement level in all but the biggest leagues.

Gotta say... I'm thinking Hanley/Tulo are going to be $45+ easy next year in any format, and if I don't get either of them I'm going to be rolling the dice on any number of these replacement level guys. No reason to gamble on an aging Jeter or Rollins for $20+ (based on just name/reputation) when at least four of the guys listed above are going to have better seasons and just about all of them will be available for under $5. Anybody with a long bench next year may be well served by picking up a handful of these guys and then ditching the ones who don't pan out in April/May.

I think next year is the season we people just throwing money away on SS that could easily be out-produced by less money spent on other more impactful positions (OF/3B).
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Re: SS - 2011

Postby thejusman1 » Thu Sep 23, 2010 6:15 pm

I'll be keeping my eye on Ian Desmond. Double digit homers and double digit SBs with a .280 average is decent. Plus, he's young... always a chance for him to grow and take the next leap.

Zobust was a huge disappointment for me this year... I would probably slide him way down to 10th+ round in a 12-team draft. I will not touch Infante, Alex Gonzalez, Bartlett, Scutaro, or Aybar in anything but the deepest of leagues. Alexei, Elvis, and Starlin I would consider in the 5th-6th round. Reyes will go too early for my liking.
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Re: SS - 2011

Postby Inukchuk » Thu Sep 23, 2010 7:38 pm

thejusman1 wrote:Alexei, Elvis, and Starlin I would consider in the 5th-6th round.


That makes one of us. Way too risky to spend a 5th/6th on any of those 3, imo...
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Re: SS - 2011

Postby AquaMan2342 » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:09 pm

Inukchuk wrote:
thejusman1 wrote:Alexei, Elvis, and Starlin I would consider in the 5th-6th round.


That makes one of us. Way too risky to spend a 5th/6th on any of those 3, imo...


Agreed. If Elvis had kept his early pace he'd be a 3rd or 4th rounder but he hasn't. I'd say 7th or 8th for him and Alexei/Castro more towards the 10th, especially Alexei who is basically the Adam LaRoche of the SS position.
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Re: SS - 2011

Postby dAnzac » Fri Sep 24, 2010 12:01 am

Zobrist won't be SS eligible next year. He hasn't had even one appearance there in 2010.
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Re: SS - 2011

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Fri Sep 24, 2010 8:30 am

dAnzac wrote:Zobrist won't be SS eligible next year. He hasn't had even one appearance there in 2010.

And with the way he his stats have dipped this year, why would you want to go after him anyways? SB's are way up this year, but everything else fell off the cliff...he's just as risky as several of the meh options that were listed above.
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Re: SS - 2011

Postby MTUCache » Fri Sep 24, 2010 9:40 am

dAnzac wrote:Zobrist won't be SS eligible next year. He hasn't had even one appearance there in 2010.

Good call. Hadn't looked at who's going to lose SS-eligibility next season. Either way, there's a whole crapload of replacement-level guys who are going to be interchangeable next season.

So... conclusions?
Is it going to be worthwhile reaching for Hanley/Tulo next season in a shallow league? I'm undecided right now if the advantage they bring is more important in a shallow league or a deeper league.

I'm working under the impression right now that this SS-dropoff is far more critical than C or even 3B next season, as both of those look to have gotten significantly more "gradual" from #3 to #10. With how deep SP is for next season, I may have to try a MI/OF/MI/3B/OF/OF strategy (or something similar) for the first 5-6 rounds of a snake draft... at least in a few mocks. In auctions I'm probably going to be willing to spend half my budget on those six spots (averaging $20+ to lock them up, and then going ultra-cheap on SP/RP/1B/C).

Eh... it's all theory right now. I'm just anticipating this SS position to be a real hinge for me next season. The rest of my draft/auction strategies are going to depend a lot on what happens with the first couple SS of the board.
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Re: SS - 2011

Postby thatguy27 » Fri Sep 24, 2010 1:53 pm

I'm pretty intrigued by Drew. I think he might be the guy I target next year (or Alexei, who has done well by my team this season) if I don't land Tulo or Hanley. I'm wondering where Drew is likely to go in drafts next year? 8th/9th round? Earlier? Later?

The other question that I find interesting is this: is Hanley still the consensus #1 SS? Or has Tulo taken over the top spot? Or are they virtually equal? Or perhaps it's preference--do you want more power and RBI potential (Tulo) or more SB potential (Hanley). For my money, I prefer Tulo.

In redrafts, I could see both Tulo and Hanley as early to mid first round picks. is Hanley still deserving of being taken 2nd overall? And if so, does that mean Tulo is deserving of being taken in the top 5 as well?
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Re: SS - 2011

Postby fast dogs » Fri Sep 24, 2010 2:52 pm

I'll be looking to take Andrus in the right spot next year, he's what 22? He's just going to keep improving.
If I miss out on him then Drew & Desmond will be my targets
I still think Hanley is about 8-10 spots before Tulo in roto
Leagues that use middles will be heavy on 2nd basemen in that spot. The middle infield position always had fairly decent options this year even in leagues where we started 42
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Re: SS - 2011

Postby Nerfherders » Fri Sep 24, 2010 4:28 pm

I hadnt really thought about it but it looks like if you dont get a SS in the first round you may as well not worry about the position.

Another name to throw in the ring is Escobar. He's likely to get himself back on track next season, but he doesnt bring much in the HR and SB category even when he's going good.

I also can't think of any rookie or young player that may jump up and have a great season. There certainly were none this year, except for Andrus for about half a year.
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