well in my world, you want to get a player who is going to for sure put up upper tier #s. its kind of a crapshoot to guess who's going to explode and hit 10-15 more HRs than they usually do, or who's going to drive in 140 this year... tho sometimes you have an idea.
i'm biased cuz vlad guerrero is my favorite player and prior is my favorite pitcher, so in the 1st round if i can get either of them... i rank prior ahead of vlad and nab him, but in all but one of my drafts prior was gone, so taking vlad was a no-brainer.
but in general, i think the theory is you want one very ballyhooed player who is very capable of putting up 40/120, someone i'd peg at 85%+ of doing that, or get a damn good pitcher who doesnt seem to be a giant injury risk (hopefully prior isnt that)
cuz i mean, ideally, you want your 1st round pick to be a consistent performer, even if your team is the worst ever, you've got one damn good player chipping in to the futility. think of how many people got burned with ichiro when they took him in, what, 2002 was it... i saw him go as high as pick #7 or #8 cuz people thought he'd hit .370 with 60 steals, but then he was like .330 with 30something steals and it's like oh schnapps mang thats just not right.
so say, albert pujols, there's the world's most example of a first round pick. barring freakish injury this guy is about as sure as there is for a .330/30/100 lock, with .350/45/140 never being out of the question. so like, i mean, take .330-.350/30-45/100-140 on locks any day of hte week.
and there is my overly wordy theory on 1st round drafting. huzzah![/img]