how much does a first round pick really matter? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2015 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

how much does a first round pick really matter?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

how much does a first round pick really matter?

Postby matmat » Fri Mar 26, 2004 11:32 am

Just wondering what your feelings are about first round picks. I mean, say you just take someone reasonable, one of Arod/Pujols at 1st or 2nd overall or any of the 10 or so consensus first round players later on in the round, how much of an impact who you choose have on the outcome of your league?

I would have thought that it's the middle rounds of the draft that make the difference -- picking the right sleepers and players others may have overlooked in the early rounds and all that...

Just trying to figure out if all the peopele who are posting things like "Help, I have the #1 pick... can't sleep.... about to have a heart attack, who do I take, Arod or Pukols????????" have any sense in worrying
matmat
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 4120
Joined: 12 Sep 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: North cross down

Postby inkubus » Fri Mar 26, 2004 11:36 am

Well.. the only impact it has is who gets somebody who'll post 50 homers and 130 RBIs, blah blah blah. You basically want the biggest bang, and the earliest pick does that. I have no idea what I'm saying.

Anyways, nobody should have a heart attack if they have the number one pick overall, because it should be A-Rod no matter what.
inkubus
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar
Graphics Expert
Posts: 644
Joined: 14 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Tampa

well...

Postby matmat » Fri Mar 26, 2004 11:52 am

ya know... there's a post floating around asking about prior, nomar and beltran. Prior's injury aside, assume for the sake of argument that he is healthy. Does it really matter which one of these studs you would take with your 9th overall pick? I mean... your choices are
1) anchor of your staff, probably the best pitcher out there.
2) a complete 5 category player primed for a career year
3) probably the best (well.. for fantasy purposes 2nd best) SS (scarce position) with a chip on his shoulder and in a contract year.

reiterating... I think it is the choices you make later on in the draft that make or break your team, not the first round ones...
matmat
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 4120
Joined: 12 Sep 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: North cross down

Postby Absolutely Adequate » Fri Mar 26, 2004 11:59 am

No, the first few picks don't matter too much - assuming that you don't do anything stupid (Gagne #3, for instance). Also assuming that your pick doesn't go down with an injury (Vlad last year).

But the draft is won in the middle rounds. It's a lot like chess, really.
Absolutely Adequate
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 5000
Joined: 6 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Not here.

Postby FantasySteve » Fri Mar 26, 2004 12:47 pm

I personally believe leagues are won and lost on your ability or inability to address your needs during the draft and throughout a season. You will probably always leave a good draft feeling like you have some holes (whether minor or major) that you need to shore up, and the way you win the draft is by constantly evaluating the team you are drafting and filling needs as you go when you can (ie don't reach to fill a hole) and by drafting players you can use as tools to acquire the pieces to make your team better when you can't. For instance in one of my leagues I really didn't do myself any favors at second base. There was never an opportunity for me to draft one in an appropriate round so I drafted the BPA instead with hopes of working an eventual deal for a higher quality player. I ended up with a totally stacked OF, 2 great 1b's, and strong SS and 3B as well as a very solid SP and Closer staff. I may be stuck with the Mark Loretta's of the world as my 2b for a while, but sooner or later when injuries at first or in the OF or SP, or a few weeks of losing rear their head for a manager I am the natural choice to try to work a trade with. I wouldn't recommend the draft them to trade them strategy as a plan because it can backfire, but it is a solution to an in-draft problem and can be the foundation to future success.
FantasySteve
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor

User avatar

Posts: 42
Joined: 10 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Collateral » Fri Mar 26, 2004 7:52 pm

I couldn't agree more. Avoiding stupid early round picks like Gagne as mentioned before is important, but middle and late Round picks have got to be efficient! And something I feel that is essential is working the free agent / waiver pool. Some guy every year is going to grab a Loaiza for free and it's going to be the last piece that gets him over the top. Winning a league goes well beyond the early few picks on draft day.
Collateral
College Coach
College Coach


Posts: 199
Joined: 12 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Guest » Fri Mar 26, 2004 8:09 pm

If you are able to get the Waiver Wire player steals, you can turn an average team into a winner.
Guest


Home Cafe: Football
Friendliness: %

Postby afromangettindrunk » Fri Mar 26, 2004 9:43 pm

constant management and assessment will keep your team healthy and productive. also, just be smart.
Image
afromangettindrunk
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 808
Joined: 15 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Albany, NY

Postby polyphonic » Fri Mar 26, 2004 9:54 pm

Basically, no part of the draft is more important than the other parts. If you draft with a strong gameplan that involves flexibility for when players fall below your projections, you should do well. I always think it's awesome when people blow late picks on guys with funny names because they think it's a cute thing to do. I'll just keep drafting players who can help my team and wave at those guys when they're 40 points behind me in July.
serious as a heart attack
makes me feel this way
polyphonic
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 331
Joined: 27 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: san jose, ca

Postby AcidRock23 » Sat Mar 27, 2004 2:20 am

W/ the first pick, you can have an opportunity to fill in 2B or short w/ somebody who will be a major contributor, instead of somebody who is 'ok'. There are tons of 1B/ OF/ SP types out there and I really think that you have to go w/ a scarce position if you can. There are a few guys, like Helton/ Pujols/ Prior who are good enough to take that early but I think you will end up better w/ Soriano/ Nomar/ Arod, simply b/c the competition is worse. There isn't really anyone comparable to that. Maybe somebody like Piazza can go nuts w/ Catcher availability, since he's @ 1B too now, but that's just another guy w/ considerably more risk than Soriano/ Nomar/ Arod/ Boone, etc.

This is all 3 weeks before the season so anything now, other than a disabling injury like...Prior's maybe?...tends to be hearsay or whatever. Barring an available interview, it's hard to say who might be tweaking their swing or pitch or something.
AcidRock23
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterEagle Eye
Posts: 4170
Joined: 8 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Champaign, IL

Next

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact