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Who came close to predicting CarGo's brilliant season?

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Who came close to predicting CarGo's brilliant season?

Postby mhowie » Sun Sep 05, 2010 10:10 pm

I checked two sources I had used in the preseason- Fantistics and Shandler's Baseball Forecaster. Of those two, the projections from Fantistics was better than Shandler's, but at 24/87/24/.282, they were still off (on the low side) in the meaningful 4x4 categories.

Did anyone else- free or paid- truly identify a triple crown type season for CarGo in their preseason projections?

Thanks,
--Howie
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Re: Who came close to predicting CarGo's brilliant season?

Postby IrishDrunk » Sun Sep 05, 2010 10:25 pm

I sure as heck didn't since I traded him for a can of corn earlier in the season. :~(
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Re: Who came close to predicting CarGo's brilliant season?

Postby Carey Saders » Sun Sep 05, 2010 11:18 pm

No professional forecaster could have predicted these kind of numbers and be taken seriously. The thing they got "right" was that he was on the rise. I targeted him as a result. I had the HOPE that he'd go nuts, but I was more convinced that Bruce would have a monster season. Hard to predict this game.
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Re: Who came close to predicting CarGo's brilliant season?

Postby Pochucker » Mon Sep 06, 2010 3:08 pm

Owner in our league drafted him beginning of 6th rd --thats the earlest I saw him go anywhere.
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Re: Who came close to predicting CarGo's brilliant season?

Postby Havok1517 » Mon Sep 06, 2010 5:13 pm

Actually, I think someone on this forum last year simply multiplied CarGo's production from 2009 for 2010 based on the increase in at-bats. I'm not exactly sure what the stats were but it was surprisingly close to his 2010 numbers. They guy who did it took a lot of flack for it but it seems the people who questioned his projection were wrong.
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Re: Who came close to predicting CarGo's brilliant season?

Postby Skin Blues » Mon Sep 06, 2010 5:33 pm

Its better to compare projections for production rates, not overall counting stats, as the latter doenst reflect a players skills nearly as accurately. Playing time in the outfield was clear as mud in the preseason, with Hawpe, Fowler, Smith, Spilborghs and Gonzalez. Even if Gonzalez was playing great, he wouldnt have been assured full playing time (and therefore full counting stats) if the rest of the platoon was performing at a similarly high level.

Anyway... no, I didnt predict anything close to this.
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Re: Who came close to predicting CarGo's brilliant season?

Postby Verminator » Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:14 pm

Interesting you bring this up, because I was drafting in the 1st round of my 8 player/12 team keeper league and was struggling between picking A Rios and CarGo. The only negative to CarGo was the depth in the Rockies' OF and the fact that he primarily only faced righties in 2009 so there was a question about the amount of playing time he would get.

I went with Rios... CarGo was gone by my pick in the 2nd round (equivalent of Rd 10 in a redraft).

I find it strange that Rios was the wrong decision even though he has had an outstanding year! :-b
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Re: Who came close to predicting CarGo's brilliant season?

Postby bazzy_51 » Mon Sep 06, 2010 7:26 pm

Won't say I predicted anything close to this, and never did I actually predict solidified stats for him, but I will say I was the laughing stock at my big CBS draft this year. 18-teamer with 5 keepers a year, took Rios in the 2nd round (equivalent of the 7th round re-draft) and CarGo the very next round in the 3rd (equivalent of the 8th round).
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Re: Who came close to predicting CarGo's brilliant season?

Postby mhowie » Mon Sep 06, 2010 7:34 pm

Verminator wrote:Interesting you bring this up, because I was drafting in the 1st round of my 8 player/12 team keeper league and was struggling between picking A Rios and CarGo. The only negative to CarGo was the depth in the Rockies' OF and the fact that he primarily only faced righties in 2009 so there was a question about the amount of playing time he would get.

I went with Rios... CarGo was gone by my pick in the 2nd round (equivalent of Rd 10 in a redraft).

I find it strange that Rios was the wrong decision even though he has had an outstanding year! :-b


The impetus for my question is the realization that not buying (roto auction) CarGo has cost me the championship in my league. With CarGo (and his contributions in all categories) I would have an insurmountable lead. As it stands, it would take an incredible set of occurrences for me to pull out the win...second or third is most likely.

While one accurate player projection is not enough to cause one to use a particular service/individual, I am (like you) particularly sensitive to my blunder in not getting CarGo and am interested if anyone out there saw this coming...as I might be interested in peering into that same crystal ball in 2011. :-)
--Howie
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Re: Who came close to predicting CarGo's brilliant season?

Postby Verminator » Mon Sep 06, 2010 8:12 pm

Ah yes, any team with CarGo at the price they got him would be in great shape to compete for their league championship.

In my league, the guy with CarGo is in 4th. I am still in 1st but wouldn't point to not drafting CarGo as a reason I may not win this league. I would point to choosing to trade away Tulo instead of Pedroia when they both got hurt and dropping WayRod half way through the season. %-6
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