Please rank the following matchups in terms of WINS ONLY. I'm only interested in which matchups are most likely to generate a win for their pitcher. Strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP are not relevant, except insofar as they might make it more likely for their pitcher get a win. The options are as follows:
Pitcher (Team) Matchup (Opposing Pitcher) Mark Buerhle (CHW) @ BOS (Josh Beckett) Clayton Richard (SD) vs. COL (Jorge De La Rosa) Homer Bailey (CIN) @ StL (Chris Carpenter) Jonathon Niese (NYM) @ CHC (Ryan Dempster) Mike Minor (ATL) @ FLA (Alex Sanabia) Armando Galarraga (DET) @ KC (Kyle Davies) Vin Mazzaro (OAK) vs. LAA (Ervin Santana) Kyle Kendrick (PHI) vs. MIL (Randy Wolf) Jason Marquis (WAS) @ PIT (Charlie Morton) Jeanmar Gomez (CLE) @ SEA (Felix Hernandez)
If you're interested in the reason I need this, I'm in a Standard Yahoo 12-team H2H redraft league. I'm currently in second place and lead the third place owner by a few percentage points. This is the last week of the regular season. Six teams make the playoffs, and the top two teams earn a first-round Bye. So if I can clinch second place, I don't have to worry about next week. I'm currently trailing my opponent this week, but if I can scoop one extra category (or tie in two categories) and the guy behind me doesn't improve, I should clinch the Bye. I'm in striking distance in both Runs and Wins, and have an outside chance at AVG and HR (and a longshot possibility in ERA and WHIP, though I'd need a major blow-up from Felix Hernandez, my opponent's lone starter tomorrow, something I certainly can't count on). So I'm looking for the best streamer that will give me the best chance of that extra win to put me over the hump. I already have one in Wade Davis @BAL (plus I have Phil Hughes vs. TOR already rostered as one of my regular starters) and have room for one more. So, how would you rank the above matchups in terms of W's alone?
Leave a link and I'll be happy to take a look at yours.
Bias: When predicting wins I like to go with pitchers who go deeper into games. You will see that in my reasoning
1) Mike Minor (ATL) @ FLA (Alex Sanabia) - Hands down, I like this matchup. It has everything that you would look for: - Solid pitcher vs. weak, who may also have focus issues because of suspension - Strong team playing for something vs. weak. - Hot pitcher, who has worked deep into games, and has a strong bullpen behind him
2) Kyle Kendrick (PHI) vs. MIL (Randy Wolf) - Wolf is terrible and while Kendrick is no great shakes, PHI's offense seems to be coming around
3) Clayton Richard (SD) vs. COL (Jorge De La Rosa) - Love him at home, but worried that DLR might be too formidalbe a foe
4) Mark Buerhle (CHW) @ BOS (Josh Beckett) - Buerhle usually qualifies for the decision, but BOS is still a strong club
5) Vin Mazzaro (OAK) vs. LAA (Ervin Santana) - I actually like Mazzaro as he works deep into games, but the chance he gets no run support is too high
6) Armando Galarraga (DET) @ KC (Kyle Davies) - Meh. Pretty average chance, but nothing I'd want to bet on.
7) Jonathon Niese (NYM) @ CHC (Ryan Dempster) - I'd have Niese ranked much higher, but as a Mets fan I can tell you that he's looked pretty tired his last two times out.. it hasn't been pretty. The potential for a blowup is there.
8) Homer Bailey (CIN) @ StL (Chris Carpenter) - Hard to bet against Carp
The Rest) I wouldn't speculate on any of these guys since I'm not confident that they can go deep enough into a game for a win. Jason Marquis (WAS) @ PIT (Charlie Morton) Jeanmar Gomez (CLE) @ SEA (Felix Hernandez)
plapre3 wrote:Bias: When predicting wins I like to go with pitchers who go deeper into games. You will see that in my reasoning
1) Mike Minor (ATL) @ FLA (Alex Sanabia) - Hands down, I like this matchup. It has everything that you would look for: - Solid pitcher vs. weak, who may also have focus issues because of suspension - Strong team playing for something vs. weak. - Hot pitcher, who has worked deep into games, and has a strong bullpen behind him
2) Kyle Kendrick (PHI) vs. MIL (Randy Wolf) - Wolf is terrible and while Kendrick is no great shakes, PHI's offense seems to be coming around
3) Clayton Richard (SD) vs. COL (Jorge De La Rosa) - Love him at home, but worried that DLR might be too formidalbe a foe
4) Mark Buerhle (CHW) @ BOS (Josh Beckett) - Buerhle usually qualifies for the decision, but BOS is still a strong club
5) Vin Mazzaro (OAK) vs. LAA (Ervin Santana) - I actually like Mazzaro as he works deep into games, but the chance he gets no run support is too high
6) Armando Galarraga (DET) @ KC (Kyle Davies) - Meh. Pretty average chance, but nothing I'd want to bet on.
7) Jonathon Niese (NYM) @ CHC (Ryan Dempster) - I'd have Niese ranked much higher, but as a Mets fan I can tell you that he's looked pretty tired his last two times out.. it hasn't been pretty. The potential for a blowup is there.
8) Homer Bailey (CIN) @ StL (Chris Carpenter) - Hard to bet against Carp
The Rest) I wouldn't speculate on any of these guys since I'm not confident that they can go deep enough into a game for a win. Jason Marquis (WAS) @ PIT (Charlie Morton) Jeanmar Gomez (CLE) @ SEA (Felix Hernandez)
The response is much appreciated. Unfortunately I had to head out before I read it and made my decision before I got a chance to see it, but its well thought out and the advice seems fine. Ultimately, I went with Buerhle, much for the reasons you stated. Part of the thinking here was that they were coming off of a double header in which, at least in the first game, they really didn't tax their bullpen. Additionally, with a day game after night game, I expect both offenses to be somewhat depleted.
Minor was a serious consideration though too, but I don't like a lefty matched up against Florida right now. They've hammered lefties too well this year. Kendrick seemed like a decent enough bet too, but I felt if I was going to go with a close matchup against a good offense, Buerhle was more likely to pitch deep and earn a decision. Richard was also a serious consideration, but the matchup seemed a bit too even. Beckett's been getting rocked by anything resembling a decent offense, so combined with Buerhle's pitch-deep ability, I went in that direction.
P.S. I'm also a Mets fan, so I'm well aware of Niese's recent struggles. I actually streamed Mejia yesterday in hopes that might work out, but unfortunately, as I'm sure you know, it did not.
Update: I had a great offensive day in avg and my opponent had a miserable one, so I took the lead in avg and I also tied in Runs. I now trail just 4-5 for the week, and the guy behind me must have had a miserable day too because he now trails his opponent 2-8. It looks like I'm in good shape. My biggest decision now is who to start tomorrow at third base: Gordon Beckham or Omar Infante. I have a nice lead in RBI's and trail by two in homers (SBs are out, I've got little chance there), so I figure its best to focus on Runs and AVG, which means Infante, but if anyone has any advice to the contrary I'm open to it. I've been going with a timeshare of Beckham and Ian Stewart at third most of the year, but with Stewart on the DL and Beckham hurt lately, Infante's been getting some time there. Unfotuntaley I also own Jose Reyes, but I managed to pick up Ian Desmond off the wire when Stewart went on the DL and that's filled me in nicely at SS, allowing me to use Infante at other positions to help while Beckham's been hurt. Kelly Johnson is my regular second baseman so I don't have much of a problem there.
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by Relddem » Sat Sep 04, 2010 3:33 pm 
