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FINAL Season Ranks vs 2010 MDP

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Re: Batters - comparing 2010 MDP vs current ranks

Postby Ursa » Sun Aug 29, 2010 2:38 am

This is fascinating stuff but it tells me one thing: If you get Albert, you'll certainly get your money's worth. If you don't, drafting is a crapshoot.
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Re: Bats & Pitching - comparing 2010 MDP vs current ranks

Postby mrmarley » Wed Sep 01, 2010 1:04 pm

Updated to include pitching...which looks really ugly too...lots of red (negative value) near the top
Last edited by mrmarley on Thu Oct 07, 2010 11:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bats & Pitching - comparing 2010 MDP vs current ranks

Postby J35J » Thu Sep 02, 2010 10:08 pm

This is all good stuff but don't let it scare you away from putting together preseason rankings and/or projections. Your goal shouldn't necessarily be to get the rankings/projections 100% right, you only have to be more right than the next guy. Couple examples...you rank Player A as the 50th overall player and the "general consensus" is that he's in the 90th ranked area. That Player A finishes the year as the 20th ranked player...you win!! While no one was really right about the guy, you don't have to be, you just need to be more right than the next guy because the final outcome will mean you likely drafted him before anyone else would have. Same goes the other way around...Player B is a "consensus" top 10 player but you had him around #20...he finishes the year as the #100 overall player...you win, even though no one was that close, the final outcome was that you likely never owned him for such a high price.

Kinda like the good ol saying goes...you don't have to out run the bear you only have to out run your buddy. ;-) (you don't have to be perfect, you just have to be better than your buddy)
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Re: Bats & Pitching - comparing 2010 MDP vs current ranks

Postby fast dogs » Thu Sep 02, 2010 11:54 pm

I like the outrunning your buddy :-D
Sure seemed like this year was filled with more injuries and underperformers than any of the past decade. I know I do a "team to beat" after the draft & I don't think any of them will finish in the top 2 in any of the leagues. Certainly very large leagues where there isn't much in the FA pools were left to the mercy of the injury bug.Ranking players that started out as your reserves and reacting quickly were keys to this season. Those middle round picks that stepped up bigtime made a bigger difference this year than most
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Re: Bats & Pitching - comparing 2010 MDP vs current ranks

Postby rookies and cream » Fri Sep 03, 2010 12:24 am

The key is to draft or pick up several of these guys near the top of the +/- % diff list. If you are fortunate enough or have the foresight to acquire these players, you will likely win your leagues.
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Re: FINAL Season Ranks vs 2010 MDP

Postby mrmarley » Thu Oct 07, 2010 11:31 am

UPDATED FOR FINAL RANKINGS..

Just curious, for those of you who finished in the top 3 in your leagues, how many (if any) high % value guys did you have on your team from the top 25 bats and pitchers lists at the end of my post?

FINAL 5x5 rankings taken from baseballmonster...if a player wasn't on the Median Draft Position list that rookies and cream posted, he was given a default number lower than the last ranked player, if a player wasn't ranked by baseball monster, he was also given a default value. 1st column is 2010 MDP for hitters or pitchers only, 2nd is FINAL ranking for hitters or pitchers, the 3rd column is the difference between the two while the % is +/- value divided by the final rank:

HITTERS LINK

SORTABLE HITTERS LINK

PITCHERS LINK

SORTABLE PITCHERS LINK



10 MDP	Rank	Value +/-	% +/-		Player
83 1 82 8200% Carlos Gonzalez
310 6 304 5067% Jose Bautista
129 9 120 1333% Paul Konerko
338 41 297 724% Angel Pagan
106 14 92 657% Adrian Beltre
193 27 166 615% Chris B. Young
50 7 43 614% Josh Hamilton
27 4 23 575% Joey Votto
400 61 339 556% Andres Torres
179 30 149 497% Delmon Young
163 28 135 482% Aubrey Huff
122 22 100 455% Corey Hart
103 19 84 442% Vladimir Guerrero
400 76 324 426% Gaby Sanchez
62 12 50 417% Dan Uggla
178 37 141 381% Kelly Johnson
210 45 165 367% Brett Gardner
148 33 115 348% Nick Swisher
35 8 27 338% Robinson Cano
85 20 65 325% Alex Rios
110 26 84 323% Rickie Weeks
400 97 303 312% Ike Davis
161 40 121 303% Drew Stubbs
400 103 297 288% Omar Infante
298 77 221 287% Jonny Gomes


10 MDP	Rank	Value +/-	% +/-		Player
51 4 47 1175% Roy Oswalt
100 11 89 809% Mat Latos
300 37 263 711% John Axford
300 41 259 632% Daniel Hudson
300 42 258 614% Colby Lewis
49 7 42 600% Billy Wagner
300 43 257 598% R.A. Dickey
62 9 53 589% David Price
129 19 110 579% Trevor Cahill
300 45 255 567% Joaquin Benoit
300 46 254 552% Jaime Garcia
37 6 31 517% Jered Weaver
178 31 147 474% Hong-Chih Kuo
300 55 245 445% Tyler Clippard
300 58 242 417% Evan Meek
300 60 240 400% Tim Stauffer
24 5 19 380% Ubaldo Jimenez
300 63 237 376% Brian Duensing
300 64 236 369% Clay Hensley
300 65 235 362% Matt Belisle
9 2 7 350% Adam Wainwright
300 67 233 348% Darren O'Day
142 32 110 344% Brett Myers
66 16 50 313% Tim Hudson
300 76 224 295% Jonny Venters
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Re: FINAL Season Ranks vs 2010 MDP

Postby ramble2 » Thu Oct 07, 2010 12:09 pm

mrmarley wrote:UPDATED FOR FINAL RANKINGS..

Just curious, for those of you who finished in the top 3 in your leagues, how many (if any) high % value guys did you have on your team from the top 25 bats and pitchers lists at the end of my post?


Had the best fantasy season of any I've played in the last 20 years. (Crap, have I really been playing that long?) Typically a very competitive league, with the last five years the winner still up for grabs going into the last week of the season. This year at the All-Star break I had a huge lead and nobody even came close. Ended up winning by 21.5 points, scoring 106 out of a possible 120 points (12-team 5x5 roto keeper).

I'm not writing this to brag (well, maybe I am a little bit :-] ) but because I was surprised at how few players I had on either of these lists:

mrmarley wrote:
10 MDP	Rank	Value +/-	% +/-		Player
83 1 82 8200% Carlos Gonzalez
106 14 92 657% Adrian Beltre (acquired in trade Aug. 11)


10 MDP	Rank	Value +/-	% +/-		Player
300 46 254 552% Jaime Garcia
66 16 50 313% Tim Hudson

And that was it. In a 12 team league, 4 players/team is about what we'd expect if these 50 players were randomly distributed. So I did no better than random in acquiring these value players, but killed in my league.

I suspect that being in a keeper league may have skewed things. Lincecum, for example, only cost me a 13th round draft pick, or equivalent to 146th pick in the draft. But then the +/- value goes to 116 (146-30) and the %+/- jumps from -97% to +3.9%. Not a huge number, but still a positive value (if I'm calculating it correctly).

Still, a really interesting analysis. Thanks!
"The game has a cleanness. If you do a good job, the numbers say so. You don't have to ask anyone or play politics. You don't have to wait for the reviews." - Sandy Koufax
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Re: FINAL Season Ranks vs 2010 MDP

Postby RAmst23 » Thu Oct 07, 2010 3:28 pm

I'm looking forward to messing around with these numbers later, thanks for compiling this marley!

Strangely, I'm the same as ramble. I won one league and finished 3rd in another which was NL only, so not very helpful here. Also 9/14 in another, but let's ignore that.

Winning league which was 10 teams:

As hitters go; Votto, Uggla, Rios were drafted on my team and that's it, Stubbs I picked up during the year. Votto everyone wanted (27 MDP) so wasn't much skill there, I just happened to draft him in the 3rd round.
Pitching: John Axford, Ubaldo, and Brett Myers were it for my pitching. Myers I picked late in the draft and Axford a WW grab.

While the value picks for pitching helped, my hitting picks put me over the top. That and having Tulo on my team during the H2H champ week :-)
...Boston papers now and then suffer a sharp flurry of arithmetic on this score; indeed, for Williams to have distributed all his hits so they did nobody else any good would constitute a feat of placement unparalleled in the annals of selfishness. -Updike
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Re: FINAL Season Ranks vs 2010 MDP

Postby J35J » Thu Oct 07, 2010 6:15 pm

1st in regular season of my 14team H2H league....ended up 4th in the playoffs though. I didn't really have many of these guys but what I did have was some top notch guys otherwise...I had MCab, Morneau and Holliday to also go with Cano, see below, so that was a pretty solid start. And also had Liriano, Peavy when he was healthy and still pitching, Ervin S was better early but fell off some, to go along with Latos and Cahill. So I think my success was more that I didn't have alot of flops more than I had alot of suprises. Below are the guys from the 2 lists I had on this team.

Robinson Cano - Drafted
Jonny Gomes - Picked up late

Mat Latos - Drafted
Trevor Cahill - Picked up
Hong-Chih Kuo - Picked up
Tim Stauffer - Picked up
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Re: FINAL Season Ranks vs 2010 MDP

Postby DaSh 1s » Thu Oct 07, 2010 7:05 pm

J35J wrote:Robinson Cano - Drafted


Congrats! ;-D
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
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