Just for "fun", if you can call it that....FINAL 5x5 rankings taken from baseballmonster...if a player wasn't on the Median Draft Position list that rookies and cream posted, he was given a default number lower than the last ranked player, if a player wasn't ranked by baseball monster, he was also given a default value. 1st column is 2010 MDP for hitters or pitchers only, 2nd is FINAL ranking for hitters or pitchers, the 3rd column is the difference between the two while the % is +/- value divided by the final rank:
Just curious, for those of you who finished in the top 3 in your leagues, how many (if any) high % value guys did you have on your team from the top 25 bats and pitchers lists at the end of my post?
they call it the year of the pitcher, but to me its been the year of the injury. I certainly don't recall a year so many top 100 players have been hurt or underperformed or both.
Comparisons like this just reinforce the strategy of punting upside for reliability in the early rounds. Matt Holliday could be taken towards the back end of the top 10 OFs next year but I'll take him on my team and bank performing close to his MDP over striking out on guys like Ellsbury.
Upside is still irrelevant in the first 3-4 rounds.
Grounded Polo wrote:Comparisons like this just reinforce the strategy of punting upside for reliability in the early rounds. Matt Holliday could be taken towards the back end of the top 10 OFs next year but I'll take him on my team and bank performing close to his MDP over striking out on guys like Ellsbury.
Upside is still irrelevant in the first 3-4 rounds.
Ellsbury's problem was reliability?
Your strategy doesn't have any basis for predicting injuries like the one that Ellsbury suffered. Of course you did pick the worst example to use since a lot of biggest underperformers had an injury history or limited track record.
Would love to see this sorted by percent difference in addition to +- value.
thanks, I'll put together an end of season update as well along with pitchers. Nice to have some closing ranks to see alongside the opening numbers you put together About the %'s, I actually do have that on the spreadsheet, but didn't post it b/c the %'s can be misleading...like hamilton's % + is a lot higher than bautista while I think bautista represented greater value coming off the ww and currently being ranked 7th....and then you have pujols at -67% even though he's 3rd overall right now. But maybe there's another way to do it? Here's what I got for percentages, and the 2nd list is by value +/- to compare:
10 MDP Rank Value +/- % +/- Player 50 1 49 4900% Josh Hamilton 285 7 278 3971% Jose Bautista 83 5 78 1560% Carlos Gonzalez 129 9 120 1333% Paul Konerko 193 20 173 865% Chris B. Young 285 30 255 850% Angel Pagan 103 12 91 758% Vladimir Guerrero 285 34 251 738% Andres Torres 163 21 142 676% Aubrey Huff 106 14 92 657% Adrian Beltre 27 4 23 575% Joey Votto 179 28 151 539% Delmon Young 11 2 9 450% Miguel Cabrera 148 29 119 410% Nick Swisher 85 17 68 400% Alex Rios 110 22 88 400% Rickie Weeks 62 13 49 377% Dan Uggla 190 42 148 352% Scott Podsednik 285 64 221 345% Gaby Sanchez 35 8 27 338% Robinson Cano 285 66 219 332% Alex Gonzalez 210 49 161 329% Brett Gardner 131 31 100 323% Martin Prado 178 47 131 279% Kelly Johnson 122 35 87 249% Corey Hart 285 91 194 213% Jonny Gomes 191 61 130 213% Luke Scott
Last edited by mrmarley on Wed Oct 13, 2010 8:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
My MDP spreadsheet actually goes deeper than the one I post here. The reason I don't go that deep here is that once you get past 350 or so, it's only utilizing 1 or 2 sources. PM me your email address and I can send it to you. May help your analysis a bit.
Jose Bautista, for example, has an MDP of 442.5, which is the highest my sheet goes. This would make Bautista's % increase 6106%, which exceeds Hammy's.
% diff is still the way to go I think. To me, that's the most meaningful analysis. As you can see, the guys at the top of that list have produced the best value. I happen to have many of those guys on my squads, which is the main reason I'm doing so well.
It would be interesting to do this list for pitchers and see if there is more variability. It would also be interesting to run this analysis over a several year period and see which players have been the most/least reliable. Josh Hamilton has probably been the least reliable over the past 3 years, going from the top to the bottom and back to the top of this list. My guess is that most players near the top of this list are busts the following year.
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by mrmarley » Fri Aug 27, 2010 2:02 pm 
About the %'s, I actually do have that on the spreadsheet, but didn't post it b/c the %'s can be misleading...like hamilton's % + is a lot higher than bautista while I think bautista represented greater value coming off the ww and currently being ranked 7th....and then you have pujols at -67% even though he's 3rd overall right now. But maybe there's another way to do it? Here's what I got for percentages, and the 2nd list is by value +/- to compare:
