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FINAL Season Ranks vs 2010 MDP

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FINAL Season Ranks vs 2010 MDP

Postby mrmarley » Fri Aug 27, 2010 2:02 pm

Just for "fun", if you can call it that....FINAL 5x5 rankings taken from baseballmonster...if a player wasn't on the Median Draft Position list that rookies and cream posted, he was given a default number lower than the last ranked player, if a player wasn't ranked by baseball monster, he was also given a default value. 1st column is 2010 MDP for hitters or pitchers only, 2nd is FINAL ranking for hitters or pitchers, the 3rd column is the difference between the two while the % is +/- value divided by the final rank:

Just curious, for those of you who finished in the top 3 in your leagues, how many (if any) high % value guys did you have on your team from the top 25 bats and pitchers lists at the end of my post?

HITTERS LINK

SORTABLE HITTERS LINK

PITCHERS LINK

SORTABLE PITCHERS LINK



10 MDP	Rank	Value +/-	% +/-		Player
83 1 82 8200% Carlos Gonzalez
310 6 304 5067% Jose Bautista
129 9 120 1333% Paul Konerko
338 41 297 724% Angel Pagan
106 14 92 657% Adrian Beltre
193 27 166 615% Chris B. Young
50 7 43 614% Josh Hamilton
27 4 23 575% Joey Votto
400 61 339 556% Andres Torres
179 30 149 497% Delmon Young
163 28 135 482% Aubrey Huff
122 22 100 455% Corey Hart
103 19 84 442% Vladimir Guerrero
400 76 324 426% Gaby Sanchez
62 12 50 417% Dan Uggla
178 37 141 381% Kelly Johnson
210 45 165 367% Brett Gardner
148 33 115 348% Nick Swisher
35 8 27 338% Robinson Cano
85 20 65 325% Alex Rios
110 26 84 323% Rickie Weeks
400 97 303 312% Ike Davis
161 40 121 303% Drew Stubbs
400 103 297 288% Omar Infante
298 77 221 287% Jonny Gomes


10 MDP	Rank	Value +/-	% +/-		Player
51 4 47 1175% Roy Oswalt
100 11 89 809% Mat Latos
300 37 263 711% John Axford
300 41 259 632% Daniel Hudson
300 42 258 614% Colby Lewis
49 7 42 600% Billy Wagner
300 43 257 598% R.A. Dickey
62 9 53 589% David Price
129 19 110 579% Trevor Cahill
300 45 255 567% Joaquin Benoit
300 46 254 552% Jaime Garcia
37 6 31 517% Jered Weaver
178 31 147 474% Hong-Chih Kuo
300 55 245 445% Tyler Clippard
300 58 242 417% Evan Meek
300 60 240 400% Tim Stauffer
24 5 19 380% Ubaldo Jimenez
300 63 237 376% Brian Duensing
300 64 236 369% Clay Hensley
300 65 235 362% Matt Belisle
9 2 7 350% Adam Wainwright
300 67 233 348% Darren O'Day
142 32 110 344% Brett Myers
66 16 50 313% Tim Hudson
300 76 224 295% Jonny Venters
Last edited by mrmarley on Wed Oct 13, 2010 8:27 am, edited 6 times in total.
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Re: Batters - comparing 2010 MDP vs current ranks

Postby rib217 » Fri Aug 27, 2010 2:21 pm

this has been the most upside down year I've seen in fantasy. (only been playing 6yrs though)
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Re: Batters - comparing 2010 MDP vs current ranks

Postby fast dogs » Fri Aug 27, 2010 3:12 pm

they call it the year of the pitcher, but to me its been the year of the injury. I certainly don't recall a year so many top 100 players have been hurt or underperformed or both.
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Re: Batters - comparing 2010 MDP vs current ranks

Postby Grounded Polo » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:55 pm

Comparisons like this just reinforce the strategy of punting upside for reliability in the early rounds. Matt Holliday could be taken towards the back end of the top 10 OFs next year but I'll take him on my team and bank performing close to his MDP over striking out on guys like Ellsbury.

Upside is still irrelevant in the first 3-4 rounds.
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Re: Batters - comparing 2010 MDP vs current ranks

Postby kab21 » Sat Aug 28, 2010 10:21 am

Grounded Polo wrote:Comparisons like this just reinforce the strategy of punting upside for reliability in the early rounds. Matt Holliday could be taken towards the back end of the top 10 OFs next year but I'll take him on my team and bank performing close to his MDP over striking out on guys like Ellsbury.

Upside is still irrelevant in the first 3-4 rounds.


Ellsbury's problem was reliability?

Your strategy doesn't have any basis for predicting injuries like the one that Ellsbury suffered. Of course you did pick the worst example to use since a lot of biggest underperformers had an injury history or limited track record.
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Re: Batters - comparing 2010 MDP vs current ranks

Postby rookies and cream » Sat Aug 28, 2010 1:16 pm

Nice analyses. ;-D

Would love to see this sorted by percent difference in addition to +- value.
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Re: Batters - comparing 2010 MDP vs current ranks

Postby mrmarley » Sat Aug 28, 2010 3:47 pm

rookies and cream wrote:Nice analyses. ;-D

Would love to see this sorted by percent difference in addition to +- value.


thanks, I'll put together an end of season update as well along with pitchers. Nice to have some closing ranks to see alongside the opening numbers you put together :-) About the %'s, I actually do have that on the spreadsheet, but didn't post it b/c the %'s can be misleading...like hamilton's % + is a lot higher than bautista while I think bautista represented greater value coming off the ww and currently being ranked 7th....and then you have pujols at -67% even though he's 3rd overall right now. But maybe there's another way to do it? Here's what I got for percentages, and the 2nd list is by value +/- to compare:

10 MDP	Rank	Value +/-	% +/-		Player
50 1 49 4900% Josh Hamilton
285 7 278 3971% Jose Bautista
83 5 78 1560% Carlos Gonzalez
129 9 120 1333% Paul Konerko
193 20 173 865% Chris B. Young
285 30 255 850% Angel Pagan
103 12 91 758% Vladimir Guerrero
285 34 251 738% Andres Torres
163 21 142 676% Aubrey Huff
106 14 92 657% Adrian Beltre
27 4 23 575% Joey Votto
179 28 151 539% Delmon Young
11 2 9 450% Miguel Cabrera
148 29 119 410% Nick Swisher
85 17 68 400% Alex Rios
110 22 88 400% Rickie Weeks
62 13 49 377% Dan Uggla
190 42 148 352% Scott Podsednik
285 64 221 345% Gaby Sanchez
35 8 27 338% Robinson Cano
285 66 219 332% Alex Gonzalez
210 49 161 329% Brett Gardner
131 31 100 323% Martin Prado
178 47 131 279% Kelly Johnson
122 35 87 249% Corey Hart
285 91 194 213% Jonny Gomes
191 61 130 213% Luke Scott
Last edited by mrmarley on Wed Oct 13, 2010 8:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Batters - comparing 2010 MDP vs current ranks

Postby rookies and cream » Sat Aug 28, 2010 8:24 pm

My MDP spreadsheet actually goes deeper than the one I post here. The reason I don't go that deep here is that once you get past 350 or so, it's only utilizing 1 or 2 sources. PM me your email address and I can send it to you. May help your analysis a bit.

Jose Bautista, for example, has an MDP of 442.5, which is the highest my sheet goes. This would make Bautista's % increase 6106%, which exceeds Hammy's.
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Re: Batters - comparing 2010 MDP vs current ranks

Postby rookies and cream » Sat Aug 28, 2010 8:38 pm

% diff is still the way to go I think. To me, that's the most meaningful analysis. As you can see, the guys at the top of that list have produced the best value. I happen to have many of those guys on my squads, which is the main reason I'm doing so well.

It would be interesting to do this list for pitchers and see if there is more variability. It would also be interesting to run this analysis over a several year period and see which players have been the most/least reliable. Josh Hamilton has probably been the least reliable over the past 3 years, going from the top to the bottom and back to the top of this list. My guess is that most players near the top of this list are busts the following year.
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Re: Batters - comparing 2010 MDP vs current ranks

Postby RunReyesRun » Sun Aug 29, 2010 1:54 am

Interesting stuff...

Look at MDP #50 and 51 (Hamilton and Lee). Pre-season crapshoot right?

Hamilton is now #1, and Lee is barely starting on fantasy teams (depending on format)

Crazy game.
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