Deep NL keeper for 2011: closers

[neoforce]

I'm in a deep NL only league and have three roster spots to speculate on potential closers for 2011. Of course I have five guys for those three spots.

These are long shot speculation plays, but it will be a big deal if just one pays off next year. The choices and some of my comments:

• Gutierrez - Too many HRs to be a good closer. But Gibson is using him in CBC right now.
• Demel - I think he is the best arm currently in the Diamondback's pen, but is he closer material?
• Adams - Could Bell be gone in the off season? Will that change if the Padres go deep in the playoffs?
• Melancon - Maybe too wild to close? And Lyon (even though no one here trusts him) is under contract for 2 more years.
• Parnell - Also wild but 100MPH is always tempting. Is Takahashi really a long term option? If K-Rod is back on his existing contract I bet he becomes a setup man so the 2012 option doesn't vest. But in the current Mets environment, anything is possible.

So, which 3 of these 5 long shots should I keep for next year.